Even with the myriad of obstacles preventing a full scale recovery for the overall U.S. economy, the design and construction industry appears to have reasons to be at least modestly optimistic in the coming months and into next year.
A sharp spike in demand for industrial facilities so far this year, along with sustained demand for hotels and retail projects factors into what projects to be a 4.4% rise in spending this year for nonresidential construction projects – up from a projection of a 2.1% increase in the January Consensus Forecast.
The American Institute of Architects (AIA) semi-annual Consensus Construction Forecast, a survey of the nation’s leading construction forecasters, also projects a 6.2% increase of spending in 2013.
“With companies looking to bring back manufacturing jobs from overseas, there has been a sharp rise in demand for industrial facilities, which is leading to an upward revision in projections for future construction spending,” said AIA Chief Economist, Kermit Baker, PhD, Hon. AIA. “Continued budget shortfalls at the state and local level, along with a depressed municipal bond market are holding the institutional market back from seeing similar upticks in spending.”
|
Market Segment Consensus Growth Forecasts |
2012 |
2013 |
|
Overall nonresidential |
4.4% |
6.20% |
|
Commercial / industrial |
5.7% |
10.20% |
|
Industrial |
12.9% |
8.10% |
|
Hotels |
9.5% |
18.20% |
|
Retail |
6.2% |
9.00% |
|
Office buildings |
4.7% |
8.70% |
|
Institutional |
0.7% |
3.00% |
|
Healthcare facilities |
4.0% |
7.50% |
|
Education |
0.3% |
1.10% |
|
Amusement / recreation |
0.1% |
2.30% |
|
Public safety |
0.0% |
0.10% |
|
Religious |
-5.0% |
3.00% |
Remarking on what risks exist that could undermine these projections, Baker added, “Federal tax and spending changes – the so-called fiscal cliff – that may come into play in early 2013 could upset the economic applecart and prove detrimental to recovery possibilities. We will likely have a better sense after the presidential election what will happen with regards to the Bush-era tax cuts, Social Security payroll tax, extended unemployment, and deficit reduction plans that will have a ripple effect that will extend to the construction industry.” +
Related Stories
| Jan 30, 2014
What's in store for healthcare capital markets in 2014?
Despite the shake up stemming from the Affordable Care Act, 2014 will be an active year in healthcare capital markets, according to real estate experts from CBRE Healthcare.
| Jan 29, 2014
Richard Meier unveils 'urban courtyard' scheme for Mexico City towers
A grand atrium, reaching some 30 stories, highlights the contemporary, bright-white design scheme unveiled this week by Richard Meier & Partners for a new mixed-use development in Mexico City.
| Jan 29, 2014
Historic church will be part of new condo building in D.C.
Sorg Architects unveiled a design scheme for 40 condos in a six-story building, which will wrap around an existing historic church, and will itself contain four residential units.
| Jan 29, 2014
Hotel, retail, recreation sectors to lead growth in 2014
AIA's Consensus Construction Forecast, a survey of the nation’s leading construction forecasters, is projecting that spending will see a 5.8% increase in 2014, led by the hotel, retail, and amusement/recreation sectors.
| Jan 29, 2014
Notre Dame to expand football stadium in largest project in school history
The $400 million Campus Crossroads Project will add more than 750,000 sf of academic, student life, and athletic space in three new buildings attached to the school's iconic football stadium.
| Jan 29, 2014
AIA honors 18 with 2014 Young Architects Award
Three recent BD+C "40 Under 40" winners are among the outstanding young architects recognized by the AIA.
| Jan 28, 2014
White Paper: How metal buildings deliver long-term value to schools
A new white paper from Star Building Systems outlines the benefits of metal buildings for public and private school building projects.
| Jan 28, 2014
First Look: BIG's Honeycomb building for Bahamas resort [slideshow]
BIG + HKS + MDA have unveiled the design for the new Honeycomb building and adjacent plaza in The Bahamas – a 175,000-sf residential facility with a private pool on each balcony.
| Jan 28, 2014
2014 predictions for skyscraper construction: More twisting towers, mega-tall projects, and 'superslim' designs
Experts from the Council on Tall Buildings and Urban Habitat release their 2014 construction forecast for the worldwide high-rise industry.
| Jan 28, 2014
16 awe-inspiring interior designs from around the world [slideshow]
The International Interior Design Association released the winners of its 4th Annual Global Excellence Awards. Here's a recap of the winning projects.
