Even with the myriad of obstacles preventing a full scale recovery for the overall U.S. economy, the design and construction industry appears to have reasons to be at least modestly optimistic in the coming months and into next year.
A sharp spike in demand for industrial facilities so far this year, along with sustained demand for hotels and retail projects factors into what projects to be a 4.4% rise in spending this year for nonresidential construction projects – up from a projection of a 2.1% increase in the January Consensus Forecast.
The American Institute of Architects (AIA) semi-annual Consensus Construction Forecast, a survey of the nation’s leading construction forecasters, also projects a 6.2% increase of spending in 2013.
“With companies looking to bring back manufacturing jobs from overseas, there has been a sharp rise in demand for industrial facilities, which is leading to an upward revision in projections for future construction spending,” said AIA Chief Economist, Kermit Baker, PhD, Hon. AIA. “Continued budget shortfalls at the state and local level, along with a depressed municipal bond market are holding the institutional market back from seeing similar upticks in spending.”
Market Segment Consensus Growth Forecasts |
2012 |
2013 |
Overall nonresidential |
4.4% |
6.20% |
Commercial / industrial |
5.7% |
10.20% |
Industrial |
12.9% |
8.10% |
Hotels |
9.5% |
18.20% |
Retail |
6.2% |
9.00% |
Office buildings |
4.7% |
8.70% |
Institutional |
0.7% |
3.00% |
Healthcare facilities |
4.0% |
7.50% |
Education |
0.3% |
1.10% |
Amusement / recreation |
0.1% |
2.30% |
Public safety |
0.0% |
0.10% |
Religious |
-5.0% |
3.00% |
Remarking on what risks exist that could undermine these projections, Baker added, “Federal tax and spending changes – the so-called fiscal cliff – that may come into play in early 2013 could upset the economic applecart and prove detrimental to recovery possibilities. We will likely have a better sense after the presidential election what will happen with regards to the Bush-era tax cuts, Social Security payroll tax, extended unemployment, and deficit reduction plans that will have a ripple effect that will extend to the construction industry.” +
Related Stories
| Feb 19, 2014
Why you should start with a builder, part two
When it’s time to build or expand, the first step is finding a builder that fits your needs. Once you have found a builder, checked their references, visited with their previous clients and are ready to move forward, the next step is answering an initial set of questions that will direct your project.
| Feb 19, 2014
Slight rebound for Architecture Billings Index
After consecutive months of contracting demand for design services, AIA's Architecture Billings Index inched up nearly two points to 50.4 in January, indicating favorable business conditions.
| Feb 19, 2014
Sefaira Adds Daylighting Analysis to Performance Based Design Platform
Sefaira, the leader in software for high performance building design, today announced that its performance based design platform now includes daylighting analysis. With the addition of daylighting, Sefaira combines two critical design metrics in the same tool.
| Feb 19, 2014
Harvard's 'termite robots' can build any thing, any way [video]
The robots build by observing thier environment and then obeying a set of traffic rules programmed by researchers.
| Feb 18, 2014
Illinois leads Top 10 states for LEED in annual USGBC ranking
The U.S. Green Building Council has released its ranking of the Top 10 States for LEED, the world’s most widely used and recognized green building rating system.
| Feb 18, 2014
Study: 90% of healthcare providers say Affordable Care Act is 'step forward,' but major revisions needed
Providers are excited about opportunities to address long-term health issues in the U.S., but worries about the transition persist, according to a new study by Mortenson Construction.
| Feb 17, 2014
SmithGroupJJR President and CEO Carl Roehling appointed to serve on the AIA/AGC Joint Committee
Carl Roehling, FAIA, LEED AP BD+C, president & CEO of SmithGroupJJR, has been appointed to serve on the Joint Committee of The American Institute of Architects (AIA) and The Associated General Contractors of America (AGC).
| Feb 17, 2014
Developer plans to 'crowdfund' extended stay hotel in Manhattan
Want to own a piece of Manhattan hotel real estate? Developer Rodrigo Nino is inviting individual investors to put up $100,000 each for his latest project, 17 John.
| Feb 17, 2014
Call for Entries: 17th annual Building Team Awards - Deadline Extended!
BD+C's Building Team Awards is the industry's only recognition program to honor projects that achieve excellence in both design/construction and collaboration of the AEC/O team. The deadline has been extended to March 14, 2014.
| Feb 17, 2014
GBI to Offer AIA Approved Course Free for 60 Days to Train New Green Globes Professionals
The Green Building Initiative™ (GBI) announced today that between Feb. 13 and April 15 it will provide free access to its online certification course for Green Globes Professionals™ (GGPs). GGPs help guide building projects in achieving Green Globes® ratings, awarded for environmentally-focused design and construction.