Even with the myriad of obstacles preventing a full scale recovery for the overall U.S. economy, the design and construction industry appears to have reasons to be at least modestly optimistic in the coming months and into next year.
A sharp spike in demand for industrial facilities so far this year, along with sustained demand for hotels and retail projects factors into what projects to be a 4.4% rise in spending this year for nonresidential construction projects – up from a projection of a 2.1% increase in the January Consensus Forecast.
The American Institute of Architects (AIA) semi-annual Consensus Construction Forecast, a survey of the nation’s leading construction forecasters, also projects a 6.2% increase of spending in 2013.
“With companies looking to bring back manufacturing jobs from overseas, there has been a sharp rise in demand for industrial facilities, which is leading to an upward revision in projections for future construction spending,” said AIA Chief Economist, Kermit Baker, PhD, Hon. AIA. “Continued budget shortfalls at the state and local level, along with a depressed municipal bond market are holding the institutional market back from seeing similar upticks in spending.”
|
Market Segment Consensus Growth Forecasts |
2012 |
2013 |
|
Overall nonresidential |
4.4% |
6.20% |
|
Commercial / industrial |
5.7% |
10.20% |
|
Industrial |
12.9% |
8.10% |
|
Hotels |
9.5% |
18.20% |
|
Retail |
6.2% |
9.00% |
|
Office buildings |
4.7% |
8.70% |
|
Institutional |
0.7% |
3.00% |
|
Healthcare facilities |
4.0% |
7.50% |
|
Education |
0.3% |
1.10% |
|
Amusement / recreation |
0.1% |
2.30% |
|
Public safety |
0.0% |
0.10% |
|
Religious |
-5.0% |
3.00% |
Remarking on what risks exist that could undermine these projections, Baker added, “Federal tax and spending changes – the so-called fiscal cliff – that may come into play in early 2013 could upset the economic applecart and prove detrimental to recovery possibilities. We will likely have a better sense after the presidential election what will happen with regards to the Bush-era tax cuts, Social Security payroll tax, extended unemployment, and deficit reduction plans that will have a ripple effect that will extend to the construction industry.” +
Related Stories
| Jul 17, 2014
A harmful trade-off many U.S. green buildings make
The Urban Green Council addresses a concern that many "green" buildings in the U.S. have: poor insulation.
| Jul 17, 2014
A high-rise with outdoor, vertical community space? It's possible! [slideshow]
Danish design firm C.F. Møller has developed a novel way to increase community space without compromising privacy or indoor space.
| Jul 17, 2014
How the 'pop-up' retail concept can be applied to workplace design
“Pop-up” has rapidly become one of the most pervasive design trends in recent years. It has given us pop-up shops and pop-up restaurants, but can it be applied to the professional work environment?
Sponsored | | Jul 17, 2014
A major hop forward
The construction of efficient metal buildings has helped Perrault Farms expand its hops-harvesting business.
| Jul 17, 2014
22 land questions to decide if your build site works
When you’re ready to build, land needs a serious amount of attention. Since it can singlehandedly shift your building plans, land must be investigated, questioned, and eyed from every angle. SPONSORED CONTENT
| Jul 16, 2014
Mergers and acquisitions of AE firms on track for strong year in 2014
Through the first six months of 2014, Morrissey Goodale tracked 101 sales of U.S.-based architecture and engineering firms, roughly the same amount as during the first six months of 2013.
| Jul 16, 2014
Ware Malcomb announces New Jersey office expansion
Architecture and design firm also honored for commercial real estate projects in New Jersey.
| Jul 16, 2014
Learning design fundamentals in the digital age – How to balance learning and technology
My colleague and I were once asked an insightful question by a Civil Engineering Professor that sparked an interesting conversation. He’d been told about our software by some of his students who had used it during their summer internship. SPONSORED CONTENT
| Jul 16, 2014
Check out this tree-like skyscraper concept for vertical farming
Aprilli Design Studio has stepped forward with a new idea for a vertical farm, which is intended to resemble a giant tree. It uses lightweight decks as outdoor growing space, adding up to about 25 acres of space.
| Jul 16, 2014
User input on aquatics center keeps students in the swim [2014 Building Team Awards]
Collaborative spirit abounds in the expansion and renovation of a high school pool facility in suburban Chicago.
