Even with the myriad of obstacles preventing a full scale recovery for the overall U.S. economy, the design and construction industry appears to have reasons to be at least modestly optimistic in the coming months and into next year.
A sharp spike in demand for industrial facilities so far this year, along with sustained demand for hotels and retail projects factors into what projects to be a 4.4% rise in spending this year for nonresidential construction projects – up from a projection of a 2.1% increase in the January Consensus Forecast.
The American Institute of Architects (AIA) semi-annual Consensus Construction Forecast, a survey of the nation’s leading construction forecasters, also projects a 6.2% increase of spending in 2013.
“With companies looking to bring back manufacturing jobs from overseas, there has been a sharp rise in demand for industrial facilities, which is leading to an upward revision in projections for future construction spending,” said AIA Chief Economist, Kermit Baker, PhD, Hon. AIA. “Continued budget shortfalls at the state and local level, along with a depressed municipal bond market are holding the institutional market back from seeing similar upticks in spending.”
|
Market Segment Consensus Growth Forecasts |
2012 |
2013 |
|
Overall nonresidential |
4.4% |
6.20% |
|
Commercial / industrial |
5.7% |
10.20% |
|
Industrial |
12.9% |
8.10% |
|
Hotels |
9.5% |
18.20% |
|
Retail |
6.2% |
9.00% |
|
Office buildings |
4.7% |
8.70% |
|
Institutional |
0.7% |
3.00% |
|
Healthcare facilities |
4.0% |
7.50% |
|
Education |
0.3% |
1.10% |
|
Amusement / recreation |
0.1% |
2.30% |
|
Public safety |
0.0% |
0.10% |
|
Religious |
-5.0% |
3.00% |
Remarking on what risks exist that could undermine these projections, Baker added, “Federal tax and spending changes – the so-called fiscal cliff – that may come into play in early 2013 could upset the economic applecart and prove detrimental to recovery possibilities. We will likely have a better sense after the presidential election what will happen with regards to the Bush-era tax cuts, Social Security payroll tax, extended unemployment, and deficit reduction plans that will have a ripple effect that will extend to the construction industry.” +
Related Stories
| Jul 29, 2014
Best practices for public-private partnerships: Free AIAI guide
Resource explores P3 best practices, including legislation and procurement methods.
| Jul 29, 2014
Blood center uses architecture to encourage blood donation [slideshow]
Designed by FAAB Architektura, the project's aesthetic was guided by its function. The color scheme, facade panel glossiness, and the irregularly elevated leitmotif were intentionally designed to evoke the "richness" of blood, according to the architects.
| Jul 28, 2014
Reconstruction market benefits from improving economy, new technology [2014 Giants 300 Report]
Following years of fairly lackluster demand for commercial property remodeling, reconstruction revenue is improving, according to the 2014 Giants 300 report.
| Jul 28, 2014
Reconstruction Sector Construction Firms [2014 Giants 300 Report]
Structure Tone, Turner, and Gilbane top Building Design+Construction's 2014 ranking of the largest reconstruction contractor and construction management firms in the U.S.
| Jul 28, 2014
Reconstruction Sector Engineering Firms [2014 Giants 300 Report]
Jacobs, URS, and Wiss, Janney, Elstner top Building Design+Construction's 2014 ranking of the largest reconstruction engineering and engineering/architecture firms in the U.S.
| Jul 28, 2014
Reconstruction Sector Architecture Firms [2014 Giants 300 Report]
Stantec, HDR, and HOK top Building Design+Construction's 2014 ranking of the largest reconstruction architecture and architecture/engineering firms in the U.S.
| Jul 28, 2014
LEO A DALY hires Peter Yakowicz to oversee VA projects
New hire will work with healthcare and federal market sectors on programs specifically for the Department of Veterans Affairs.
| Jul 28, 2014
Peterson Associates joins forces with KSQ Architects
Move creates Charlotte, N.C., office with expertise in higher education, K-12, multifamily, and healthcare.
| Jul 28, 2014
Post Tower Wins CTBUH 10-Year Award
The 10 Year Award recognizes proven value and performance in a tall building, across one or more of a wide range of criteria, over a period of 10 years since its completion.
