Even with the myriad of obstacles preventing a full scale recovery for the overall U.S. economy, the design and construction industry appears to have reasons to be at least modestly optimistic in the coming months and into next year.
A sharp spike in demand for industrial facilities so far this year, along with sustained demand for hotels and retail projects factors into what projects to be a 4.4% rise in spending this year for nonresidential construction projects – up from a projection of a 2.1% increase in the January Consensus Forecast.
The American Institute of Architects (AIA) semi-annual Consensus Construction Forecast, a survey of the nation’s leading construction forecasters, also projects a 6.2% increase of spending in 2013.
“With companies looking to bring back manufacturing jobs from overseas, there has been a sharp rise in demand for industrial facilities, which is leading to an upward revision in projections for future construction spending,” said AIA Chief Economist, Kermit Baker, PhD, Hon. AIA. “Continued budget shortfalls at the state and local level, along with a depressed municipal bond market are holding the institutional market back from seeing similar upticks in spending.”
|
Market Segment Consensus Growth Forecasts |
2012 |
2013 |
|
Overall nonresidential |
4.4% |
6.20% |
|
Commercial / industrial |
5.7% |
10.20% |
|
Industrial |
12.9% |
8.10% |
|
Hotels |
9.5% |
18.20% |
|
Retail |
6.2% |
9.00% |
|
Office buildings |
4.7% |
8.70% |
|
Institutional |
0.7% |
3.00% |
|
Healthcare facilities |
4.0% |
7.50% |
|
Education |
0.3% |
1.10% |
|
Amusement / recreation |
0.1% |
2.30% |
|
Public safety |
0.0% |
0.10% |
|
Religious |
-5.0% |
3.00% |
Remarking on what risks exist that could undermine these projections, Baker added, “Federal tax and spending changes – the so-called fiscal cliff – that may come into play in early 2013 could upset the economic applecart and prove detrimental to recovery possibilities. We will likely have a better sense after the presidential election what will happen with regards to the Bush-era tax cuts, Social Security payroll tax, extended unemployment, and deficit reduction plans that will have a ripple effect that will extend to the construction industry.” +
Related Stories
| Oct 8, 2014
First look: Woods Bagot unveils plans for new Christchurch Convention Center
The locally-inspired building is meant to serve as a symbol of the city's recovery from the earthquake of 2011.
| Oct 8, 2014
Denver transit project wins design-build Project of the Year honor
The Denver Union Station Transit Improvement Project is among 25 projects honored by the Design Build Institute of America for excellence in design-build project delivery.
| Oct 7, 2014
Analysis: Student loans will cost housing industry $83 billion in 2014
More than 410,000 single- and multifamily home sales will be lost in 2014 due to student loan debt, according to analysis by John Burns Real Estate Consulting.
Sponsored | | Oct 7, 2014
Boost efficiency with advanced framing
As architects continue to search for ways to improve building efficiencies, more and more are turning to advanced framing methods, particularly for multifamily and light commercial projects.
| Oct 7, 2014
Economic gains are rallying rents in Raleigh, N.C.
The greater Raleigh, N.C., market appears to be getting back on its feet again, which is good news for rental property owners.
| Oct 7, 2014
Structured, not stirred: The architecture of cocktails [infographic]
In this downloadable graphic, technologist Shaan Hurley dissects 37 cocktails and analyzes their architectural makeup.
| Oct 6, 2014
Moshe Safdie: Skyscrapers lead to erosion of urban connectivity
The 76-year-old architect sees skyscrapers and the privatization of public space to be the most problematic parts of modern city design.
| Oct 6, 2014
Houston's office construction is soaring
Houston has 19 million square feet of office space under construction, 54% more than a year ago, and its highest level since the booming 1980s, according to local news reports.
| Oct 6, 2014
Design activity at architecture firms finally back to pre-recession levels: AIA report
Gross billings at architecture firms have increased by 20% since 2011, according to a new report by the AIA.
| Oct 6, 2014
Retelling an old story: Why women are underrepresented in architecture
Women account for more than half of the U.S. population. But even with significant gains over the past 25 years, their numbers and positions among the ranks of practicing architects appear to have stalled.
