Even with the myriad of obstacles preventing a full scale recovery for the overall U.S. economy, the design and construction industry appears to have reasons to be at least modestly optimistic in the coming months and into next year.
A sharp spike in demand for industrial facilities so far this year, along with sustained demand for hotels and retail projects factors into what projects to be a 4.4% rise in spending this year for nonresidential construction projects – up from a projection of a 2.1% increase in the January Consensus Forecast.
The American Institute of Architects (AIA) semi-annual Consensus Construction Forecast, a survey of the nation’s leading construction forecasters, also projects a 6.2% increase of spending in 2013.
“With companies looking to bring back manufacturing jobs from overseas, there has been a sharp rise in demand for industrial facilities, which is leading to an upward revision in projections for future construction spending,” said AIA Chief Economist, Kermit Baker, PhD, Hon. AIA. “Continued budget shortfalls at the state and local level, along with a depressed municipal bond market are holding the institutional market back from seeing similar upticks in spending.”
|
Market Segment Consensus Growth Forecasts |
2012 |
2013 |
|
Overall nonresidential |
4.4% |
6.20% |
|
Commercial / industrial |
5.7% |
10.20% |
|
Industrial |
12.9% |
8.10% |
|
Hotels |
9.5% |
18.20% |
|
Retail |
6.2% |
9.00% |
|
Office buildings |
4.7% |
8.70% |
|
Institutional |
0.7% |
3.00% |
|
Healthcare facilities |
4.0% |
7.50% |
|
Education |
0.3% |
1.10% |
|
Amusement / recreation |
0.1% |
2.30% |
|
Public safety |
0.0% |
0.10% |
|
Religious |
-5.0% |
3.00% |
Remarking on what risks exist that could undermine these projections, Baker added, “Federal tax and spending changes – the so-called fiscal cliff – that may come into play in early 2013 could upset the economic applecart and prove detrimental to recovery possibilities. We will likely have a better sense after the presidential election what will happen with regards to the Bush-era tax cuts, Social Security payroll tax, extended unemployment, and deficit reduction plans that will have a ripple effect that will extend to the construction industry.” +
Related Stories
Projects | Apr 17, 2017
BD+C's 2017 Design Innovation Report
Façades that would make Dr. Seuss smile, living walls, and exterior wall space that doubles as gallery space are all represented in this year's BD+C Design Innovation Report.
Healthcare Facilities | Apr 13, 2017
The rise of human performance facilities
A new medical facility in Chicago focuses on sustaining its customers’ human performance.
Laboratories | Apr 13, 2017
How to design transformative scientific spaces? Put people first
While most labs are designed to achieve that basic functionality, a transformational lab environment prioritizes a science organization’s most valuable assets: its people.
Hotel Facilities | Apr 12, 2017
Hotels embrace place
Today’s hospitality environments emphasize unique, localized experiences to attract and engage guests.
Green | Apr 11, 2017
Passivhaus for high-rises? Research demonstrates viability of the stringent standards for tall residential buildings
A new study conducted by FXFOWLE shows that Building Teams can meet stringent Passivhaus performance standards with minimal impact to first cost and aesthetics.
Curtain Wall | Apr 11, 2017
Masters of geometry
Three firms that specialize in façades that curve, twist, and turn see themselves as artisans of the unthinkable.
Office Buildings | Apr 10, 2017
Innovation lab makes developing eye care solutions a collaborative affair
The Shop East innovation lab presents 13,500 sf of workspace across two floors with an emphasis on collaboration.
Architects | Apr 10, 2017
New Bjarke Ingels documentary gives a peek behind the curtain
The movie takes a slightly darker tone than previous projects chronicling the starchitect’s rise to prominence.
Architects | Apr 4, 2017
Architect Howard Elkus dies at 78
Cofounder of Elkus Manfredi Architects, his career spanned five decades, and included a spectrum of major design projects.
