Even with the myriad of obstacles preventing a full scale recovery for the overall U.S. economy, the design and construction industry appears to have reasons to be at least modestly optimistic in the coming months and into next year.
A sharp spike in demand for industrial facilities so far this year, along with sustained demand for hotels and retail projects factors into what projects to be a 4.4% rise in spending this year for nonresidential construction projects – up from a projection of a 2.1% increase in the January Consensus Forecast.
The American Institute of Architects (AIA) semi-annual Consensus Construction Forecast, a survey of the nation’s leading construction forecasters, also projects a 6.2% increase of spending in 2013.
“With companies looking to bring back manufacturing jobs from overseas, there has been a sharp rise in demand for industrial facilities, which is leading to an upward revision in projections for future construction spending,” said AIA Chief Economist, Kermit Baker, PhD, Hon. AIA. “Continued budget shortfalls at the state and local level, along with a depressed municipal bond market are holding the institutional market back from seeing similar upticks in spending.”
|
Market Segment Consensus Growth Forecasts |
2012 |
2013 |
|
Overall nonresidential |
4.4% |
6.20% |
|
Commercial / industrial |
5.7% |
10.20% |
|
Industrial |
12.9% |
8.10% |
|
Hotels |
9.5% |
18.20% |
|
Retail |
6.2% |
9.00% |
|
Office buildings |
4.7% |
8.70% |
|
Institutional |
0.7% |
3.00% |
|
Healthcare facilities |
4.0% |
7.50% |
|
Education |
0.3% |
1.10% |
|
Amusement / recreation |
0.1% |
2.30% |
|
Public safety |
0.0% |
0.10% |
|
Religious |
-5.0% |
3.00% |
Remarking on what risks exist that could undermine these projections, Baker added, “Federal tax and spending changes – the so-called fiscal cliff – that may come into play in early 2013 could upset the economic applecart and prove detrimental to recovery possibilities. We will likely have a better sense after the presidential election what will happen with regards to the Bush-era tax cuts, Social Security payroll tax, extended unemployment, and deficit reduction plans that will have a ripple effect that will extend to the construction industry.” +
Related Stories
Architects | Nov 9, 2021
Pelli Clarke Pelli Architects announces renaming
Founded by Cesar Pelli with partners Fred Clarke and Diana Balmori in 1977, the firm began its legacy as Cesar Pelli & Associates at its first office in New Haven, Connecticut.
Movers+Shapers | Nov 7, 2021
Passage of $1.2 trillion infrastructure bill expected to spur stronger construction activity
AEC firms see federal investment as historic
Architects | Nov 2, 2021
What rugby can teach us about designing the workspace of the future
Two veteran workplace designers offer a sports-based analogy for designing agile spaces to meet the needs of an evolving workforce.
Adaptive Reuse | Nov 1, 2021
CallisonRTKL explores converting decommissioned cruise ships for housing
The rapid increase in cruise ship decommissioning during the last 18 months has created a unique opportunity to innovate and adapt these large ships.
Sustainability | Oct 28, 2021
Reducing embodied carbon in construction, with sustainability leader Sarah King
Sustainability leader Sarah King explains how developers and contractors can use the new EC3 software tool to reduce embodied carbon in their buildings.
Cladding and Facade Systems | Oct 26, 2021
14 projects recognized by DOE for high-performance building envelope design
The inaugural class of DOE’s Better Buildings Building Envelope Campaign includes a medical office building that uses hybrid vacuum-insulated glass and a net-zero concrete-and-timber community center.
AEC Tech | Oct 25, 2021
Token Future: Will NFTs revolutionize the design industry?
How could non-fungible tokens (NFTs) change the way we value design? Woods Bagot architect Jet Geaghan weighs risk vs. reward in six compelling outcomes.
Giants 400 | Oct 22, 2021
2021 Retail Giants: Top architecture, engineering, and construction firms in the U.S. retail building sector
Gensler, CallisonRTKL, Kimley-Horn, and Whiting-Turner top BD+C's rankings of the nation's largest retail sector architecture, engineering, and construction firms, as reported in the 2021 Giants 400 Report.
Giants 400 | Oct 22, 2021
2021 Industrial Sector Giants: Top architecture, engineering, and construction firms in the U.S. industrial buildings sector
Ware Malcomb, Clayco, Jacobs, and Stantec top BD+C's rankings of the nation's largest industrial buildings sector architecture, engineering, and construction firms, as reported in the 2021 Giants 400 Report.
| Oct 22, 2021
The Next Chapter For 147-Year-Old Shepley Bulfinch
Boston-based architecture, planning, and interior design firm Shepley Bulfinch recently named Angela Watson, FAIA, as its President and CEO. Watson sat down with BD+C's John Caulfield to discuss her strategic plan, which emphasizes perspective and collaboration.
