Even with the myriad of obstacles preventing a full scale recovery for the overall U.S. economy, the design and construction industry appears to have reasons to be at least modestly optimistic in the coming months and into next year.
A sharp spike in demand for industrial facilities so far this year, along with sustained demand for hotels and retail projects factors into what projects to be a 4.4% rise in spending this year for nonresidential construction projects – up from a projection of a 2.1% increase in the January Consensus Forecast.
The American Institute of Architects (AIA) semi-annual Consensus Construction Forecast, a survey of the nation’s leading construction forecasters, also projects a 6.2% increase of spending in 2013.
“With companies looking to bring back manufacturing jobs from overseas, there has been a sharp rise in demand for industrial facilities, which is leading to an upward revision in projections for future construction spending,” said AIA Chief Economist, Kermit Baker, PhD, Hon. AIA. “Continued budget shortfalls at the state and local level, along with a depressed municipal bond market are holding the institutional market back from seeing similar upticks in spending.”
Market Segment Consensus Growth Forecasts |
2012 |
2013 |
Overall nonresidential |
4.4% |
6.20% |
Commercial / industrial |
5.7% |
10.20% |
Industrial |
12.9% |
8.10% |
Hotels |
9.5% |
18.20% |
Retail |
6.2% |
9.00% |
Office buildings |
4.7% |
8.70% |
Institutional |
0.7% |
3.00% |
Healthcare facilities |
4.0% |
7.50% |
Education |
0.3% |
1.10% |
Amusement / recreation |
0.1% |
2.30% |
Public safety |
0.0% |
0.10% |
Religious |
-5.0% |
3.00% |
Remarking on what risks exist that could undermine these projections, Baker added, “Federal tax and spending changes – the so-called fiscal cliff – that may come into play in early 2013 could upset the economic applecart and prove detrimental to recovery possibilities. We will likely have a better sense after the presidential election what will happen with regards to the Bush-era tax cuts, Social Security payroll tax, extended unemployment, and deficit reduction plans that will have a ripple effect that will extend to the construction industry.” +
Related Stories
Building Team | May 9, 2022
Cincinnati’s Andrew J Brady Music Center transforms the city’s riverfront
In Cincinnati, Ohio, the Andrew J Brady Music Center aims to connect audiences with live music while transforming Cincinnati’s riverfront.
Sponsored | Multifamily Housing | May 8, 2022
Choosing the right paver system for rooftop amenity spaces
This AIA course by Hoffmann Architects offers best practices for choosing the right paver system for rooftop amenity spaces in multifamily buildings.
Market Data | May 6, 2022
Nonresidential construction spending down 1% in March
National nonresidential construction spending was down 0.8% in March, according to an Associated Builders and Contractors analysis of data published today by the U.S. Census Bureau.
Building Team | May 6, 2022
Atlanta’s largest adaptive reuse project features cross laminated timber
Global real estate investment and management firm Jamestown recently started construction on more than 700,000 sf of new live, work, and shop space at Ponce City Market.
Sponsored | BD+C University Course | May 5, 2022
Designing with architectural insulated metal wall panels
Insulated metal wall panels (IMPs) offer a sleek, modern, and lightweight envelope system that is highly customizable. This continuing education course explores the characteristics of insulated metal wall panels, including how they can offer a six-in-one design solution. Discussions also include design options, installation processes, code compliance, sustainability, and available warranties.
Higher Education | May 5, 2022
To keep pace with demand, higher ed will have to add 45,000 beds by year-end
The higher education residential sector will have to add 45,000 beds by the end of 2022 to keep pace with demand, according to a report by Humphreys & Partners Architects.
Multifamily Housing | May 5, 2022
An Austin firm touts design and communal spaces in its student housing projects
Rhode Partners has multiple towers in various development stages.
Legislation | May 4, 2022
Washington is first state to mandate all-electric heat for new large buildings
Washington recently became the first state to require all electric heat for new buildings.
Building Team | May 4, 2022
Mancini Acquires Gertler & Wente Architects, Expanding the Firm's Opportunities in New Market Sectors
National design firm Mancini Duffy - with a 100+-year-old history and tech-forward approach based in New York City - announces the acquisition of Gertler & Wente Architects to further expand its footprint in the healthcare, multi-family residential, restoration, institutional, and religious sectors.
Contractors | May 4, 2022
CFC Construction names Pat Smith president
CFC Construction is proud to announce that Pat Smith has been promoted to President of the Colorado-based general contractor.