Nonresidential construction spending in New York City is projected to reach $39 billion in 2018, a nearly 66% increase over the previous year. However, spending is also expected to tail off significantly during the following two years, according to a new report, Construction Outlook 2018-2020, released today by the New York Building Congress.
Spending for all types construction in New York City is in its fifth year of growth and could hit a record $61.8 billion this year, 25% more than in 2017. That growth is attributable in part to several large-scale projects. The New York Building Congress forecasts that, despite some anticipated falloff over the next two years, total construction spending through 2020 will total $177 billion.
Nonresidential construction alone—which includes offices, institutional, government buildings, sports and entertainment, and hotels—is forecast to add a record 39 million gross sf this year, followed by 30.4 million sf and 23.4 million sf in 2019 and 2020, respectively. The projected decrease in construction spending for nonresidential buildings over the next two years can be pegged to the completion of several big projects by 2020, such as the 58-story 1,401-ft-tall One Vanderbilt, and three buildings within the $20 billion Hudson Yards redevelopment.
(All this new floor space is coming at a time when New York’s office vacancy rate hovers around 13%, according to the website Optimal Spaces.)
Residential construction spending—which in New York is primarily for multifamily buildings—will total $14 billion in 2018, up 6% from the previous year. Next year, residential construction spending is expected to hit $15 billion, and then recede to $10.6 billion in 2020. (The totals include renovations and alterations.)
Over the three years, 60,000 housing units and 107.2 million gross sf will be added, states the report. The average annual unit count, though, would be off from the 27,898 housing units added to the city in 2017.
The report states that construction employment will show growth for the seventh consecutive year in 2018, and top 150,000 jobs for the second consecutive year. While the Building Congress predicts an employment dip—to 145,600 in 2019 and to 147,700 in 2020—those numbers would still be higher than the average for the last five years.
Related Stories
Market Data | Feb 1, 2019
Construction spending is projected to increase by more than 11% through 2022
FMI’s annual outlook also expects the industry’s frantic M&A activity to be leavened by caution going forward.
Market Data | Jan 23, 2019
Architecture billings slow, but close 2018 with growing demand
AIA’s Architecture Billings Index (ABI) score for December was 50.4 compared to 54.7 in November.
Market Data | Jan 16, 2019
AIA 2019 Consensus Forecast: Nonresidential construction spending to rise 4.4%
The education, public safety, and office sectors will lead the growth areas this year, but AIA's Kermit Baker offers a cautious outlook for 2020.
Market Data | Dec 19, 2018
Brokers look forward to a commercial real estate market that mirrors 2018’s solid results
Respondents to a recent Transwestern poll expect flat to modest growth for rents and investment in offices, MOBs, and industrial buildings.
Market Data | Dec 19, 2018
When it comes to economic clout, New York will far outpace other U.S. metros for decades to come
But San Jose, Calif., is expected to have the best annual growth rate through 2035, according to Oxford Economics’ latest Global Cities report.
Market Data | Dec 19, 2018
Run of positive billings continues at architecture firms
November marked the fourteenth consecutive month of increasing demand for architectural firm services.
Market Data | Dec 5, 2018
ABC predicts construction sector will remain strong in 2019
Job growth, high backlog and healthy infrastructure investment all spell good news for the industry.
Market Data | Dec 4, 2018
Nonresidential spending rises modestly in October
Thirteen out of 16 subsectors are associated with year-over-year increases.
Market Data | Nov 20, 2018
Construction employment rises from October 2017 to October 2018 in 44 states and D.C.
Texas has biggest annual job increase while New Jersey continues losses; Iowa, Florida and California have largest one-month gains as Mississippi and Louisiana trail.
Market Data | Nov 15, 2018
Architecture firm billings continue to slow, but remain positive in October
Southern region reports decline in billings for the first time since June 2012.