After another year when the growth in multifamily housing exceeded expectations, apartment demand and property values could keep rolling through 2017.
“The forces that have produced the best multifamily market in recent memory remain largely in place,” says John Affleck, apartment research strategist for CoStar Group.
In a recent report from Real Capital Markets, 49% of investors polled said that multifamily remains an ideal investment in commercial real estate, and that the market doesn’t look like it will be slowing down any time soon.
The National Association of Home Builders expects multifamily starts to rise to 384,000 units, or 1,000 above last year’s number. Robert Dietz, NAHB’s chief economist, believes this pace is being driven by demographics and the balance between supply and demand.
CoStar actually forecasts that sales volumes, units per sale, and price growth of multifamily properties will finally level off this year from record highs. However, CoStar also acknowledges the sector’s momentum, where—through the third quarter of 2016—multifamily had the lowest vacancy rate (5.2%) of all major property types, and had seen rents rise by 3.9%.
Aggressive pricing aside, the sector’s record of steady rent growth and high occupancy with low volatility continue to make apartment properties an ideal defensive asset as the economic cycle extends into a seventh year, Affleck says.
CoStar predicts that the national vacancy rate for multifamily properties will increase to 5.6% this year and to 5.7% in 2018. Rental rate growth should moderate to 2.3% this year and 2.1% next.
Looking at last year's performance, CoStar foresees rent growth slowing and supply still exceeding demand in multifamily. Image: CoStar Portfolio Strategy.
David Brickman, Executive Vice President and head of Freddic Mac’s multifamily business, foresees a spike in renter households, spurred on by positive job growth and a stable economy. In addition, home prices are on the rise, which might cause renters to further postpone any residential purchases. And aging baby boomers continue to downsize into rental units.
Fannie Mae is a bit more conservative in its estimates about multifamily growth over the next two years. But Kim Betancourt, Fannie’s Director of Economics, doesn’t expect any moderation to be long lasting.
“Considering that rent concessions have declined steadily for nearly seven straight years, and that their current level is now below 1%, it is probably only a question of ‘when’ and not ‘if’ concessions begin to rise again,” Betancourt says.
CoStar’s Affleck sees the “unprecedented propensity to rent, even among the most affluent” as “the chief risk to this cycle,” because higher rents will inevitably coax more renters to consider homeownership, especially if interest rates stay relatively low.
Related Stories
Multifamily Housing | Jan 4, 2018
Shigeru Ban’s mass timber tower in Vancouver gets city approval
The 232-foot-tall Terrace House luxury condo development will be the tallest hybrid wood structure in North America.
Mixed-Use | Jan 3, 2018
A Houston luxury apartment complex has its own co-working space
The new community is located in the economic and population center of Houston.
Multifamily Housing | Dec 12, 2017
Call for technical experts: Dog wash station design
The editors of Multifamily Design + Construction magazine need your expertise.
Multifamily Housing | Dec 7, 2017
Planned Denver apartment community is for those 55 years and older
KTGY Architecture + Planning designed the new Avenida Lakewood just six miles from downtown Denver.
Multifamily Housing | Nov 29, 2017
First Porsche, now Aston Martin: Sports car maker co-develops Miami condo tower *UPDATED
The 391-unit Aston Martin Residences will feature seven penthouses and a duplex penthouse, all with private pools and terraces overlooking Biscayne Bay.
Industry Research | Nov 28, 2017
2018 outlook: Economists point to slowdown, AEC professionals say ‘no way’
Multifamily housing and senior living developments head the list of the hottest sectors heading into 2018, according a survey of 356 AEC professionals.
Multifamily Housing | Nov 28, 2017
Elementary school, daycare campus will serve Toronto’s skyrise neighborhood
The $65 million Canoe Landing Campus brings much needed social infrastructure to the 20,000 residents of Toronto’s CityPlace towers.
Multifamily Housing | Nov 15, 2017
6 noteworthy multifamily developments: artists housing, tech lofts, resort-style senior living
These recently completed projects represent emerging trends and design innovations in the multifamily sector.
Multifamily Housing | Nov 8, 2017
No place like home: LA’s The Six provides permanent supportive housing for veterans
The 52-unit development gives hope and dignity to homeless or disabled veterans and others in need.
Mixed-Use | Nov 1, 2017
18-story residential tower breaks ground near Temple University
The tower will provide apartment units for students and young professionals.