Brace yourself. I’m about to unleash a tsunami of data to make the argument that the multifamily market is still going strong, despite all the sturm und drang about the coming global economic slowdown and its possible negative effect on apartment starts. Thanks to economist Danushka Nanayakkara-Skillington, the NAHB’s Assistant Vice President for Forecasting & Analysis, and Robert Dietz, PhD, NAHB Chief Economist, who presented the data at the 2019 NAHB International Builders’ Show.
Multifamily housing starts should hit 379,000 units this year. That’s 2% down from 2018’s 386,000, but well ahead (by 10%) of the average for multifamily starts from 2000 to 2007 and not that far off of the post-recession high of 394,000 in 2015.
Multifamily’s share of total housing under construction continues to run in the mid- to high-50% range. That’s probably because single-family construction has still not fully ramped up, although its slope is still up and to the right.
Rental production continues to dominate multifamily construction. The built-for-rent share of multifamily construction has held steady in the 90-95% range for the last five years. Somewhere in America there are brave souls who are building condominiums and for-sale townhomes, but apparently they are few and far between. Demand for rental at all price points continues to be the guiding force in the multifamily market.
According to the Joint Center for Housing Studies at Harvard University,
nearly half of all renters (47%) are “cost-burdened”: they pay more than 30%
of household income for their apartments. Of these 20.8 million cost-burdened
renters, 11.0 million pay more than half their family income for shelter.
Bigger projects provide the bulk of the units in completed multifamily buildings. Projects with 50 or more dwelling units supplied more than half (52%) of the 357,000 completed multifamily residences in 2017 (the last year for which U.S. Census Bureau data was available). Mid-size projects (10 to 49 units) accounted for 40% of completed dwelling units; projects with less than 10 residences yielded the remaining 7-8%. Scale matters.
Multifamily housing starts returned to 107% of normal in Q3/2018. Multifamily starts have returned to normal or above from the market bottom in 2009 in 27 states and the District of Columbia. Alabama is the only state that has not dug out of the trough since 2009.
The senior market may be slowing a bit, but it’s still positive. The NAHB 55+ Housing Market Index fell from a high of 68 in mid-2018, to 56 later in the year. Since any score over 50 indicates a positive attitude by builders and developers, it looks like the market influencers still see senior living facilities as a viable opportunity. My fellow baby boomers and I aren’t getting any younger.
To summarize, apartments are being built, and in goodly number. That’s the rosy side of the multifamily picture. The flip side is that not enough of it is affordable.
According to the Joint Center for Housing Studies at Harvard University, nearly half of all renters (47%) are “cost-burdened”: they pay more than 30% of household income for their apartments. Of these 20.8 million cost-burdened renters, 11.0 million pay more than half their family income for shelter.
Hardest hit: single-parent families and those over age 65.
Those are sobering statistics. What do you think can be done to address this problem?
Related Stories
Sponsored | Multifamily Housing | Oct 15, 2015
Apartment takes progressive turn in architecturally traditional D.C.
The new Lyric 440K Apartments is a 14-story structure housing 234 one- and two-bedroom units in the heart of D.C.'s up-and-coming Mount Vernon Triangle
Multifamily Housing | Oct 12, 2015
Freddie Mac: Multifamily demand should outpace supply through 2016
Vacancy rates and rent growth are “converging” in most markets.
Multifamily Housing | Oct 7, 2015
BIG designs lush, terraced mixed-use building in Sweden
Cascading glass and wooden cubes create a form similar to Northern Ireland’s Giant’s Causeway rock formation.
Multifamily Housing | Oct 6, 2015
Multifamily completions in buildings with 50 or more units continues to climb
The Census Bureau estimates that 255,600 multifamily housing units were completed in 2014 in buildings with at least five or more units, representing a 37.3% increase over the previous year and the highest total in those multi-unit structures since 2009.
Multifamily Housing | Oct 2, 2015
Utilities should do more to give building owners energy use information
Owners of multi-tenant buildings lack basic information.
Multifamily Housing | Oct 1, 2015
Wiel Arets unveils twin, 558-foot mixed-use towers in Bahrain’s capital
The development, Bahrain Bay Tower, will consist of two residential towers connected “by a plinth of retail, office, parking, and public park space.”
Multifamily Housing | Sep 29, 2015
The developer that planned a mosque near Ground Zero now proposes a five-star condo tower instead
Sharif El-Gamal of Soho Properties is looking to cash in while lower Manhattan’s real estate market stays hot.
Multifamily Housing | Sep 28, 2015
Vo Trong Nghia’s 'diamond lotus' will feature sky garden pathways linking high-rises
The 22-story housing complex in Ho Chi Minh City will have façades covered with plants and a rooftop garden that connects the structures.
Multifamily Housing | Sep 23, 2015
Richard Meier unveils design scheme for residential high-rise in Taipei
The sleek and minimalist luxury tower will offer guests and residents views of the iconic Taipei 101.
Multifamily Housing | Sep 16, 2015
Kengo Kuma proposes ‘carved tower’ for downtown Vancouver
The 40-story residential tower, to be built in downtown Vancouver’s West End neighborhood, will have 188 residential units, "with many units within the carved deductions possessing substantially sized patios," according to Vancity Buzz.