Yardi Matrix has released its Q4 2023 Multifamily Supply Forecast, emphasizing a short-term spike and plateau of new construction. According to the report, Yardi finds that construction starts have remained "relatively robust" in the first half of 2023, with the under-construction pipeline increasing by 7.6% in Q3.
Because of this, new activity is starting to slow. The forecast for project completions has increased by 5.8% for 2024 and 6.2% for 2025. Completions for later years are forecasted to decrease by roughly 5 percent, according to Yardi.
Long-Term Multifamily Supply Forecast
"We continue to expect a mild recession will start in late 2023 or early 2024," the report states. Yardi's forecast for 2026 has therefore been reduced by 5.8% to 377,622 units, while the baseline forecast for 2027 and 2028 completions has been similarly reduced by 4.7% and 5.4% respectively.
For the multifamily markets monitored by Yardi Matrix, there are currently 1.2 million units within the under-construction pipeline. Of these units, just under 480,000 are in the lease-up phase, which is in line with the trailing six-month average of 483,000 units but represents a substantial 15.9% increase from the figures of the previous year. Most of these units are expected to be finalized either by the end of 2023 or during the first half of 2024.
What does this mean for 2024?
Though short-term construction starts remained elevated through the first half of 2023, several findings from the third quarter suggest that new development activity is slowing. The near flat growth recorded in Q3 is a sharp departure from the growth the planned pipeline recorded post pandemic—another sign that development interest is slowing, according to Yardi.
Overall, Yardi Matrix anticipates an uptick in construction completions in the next two years. Yardi's construction start data reached its year-over-year peak in May 2023. Both planned and prospective pipelines plateaued in Q3.
"Our baseline forecast envisions new supply bottoming in 2026 at around 377,000 units, while the alternative downside forecast models new supply bottoming in 2026 at 335,000 units," writes Ben Bruckner, Senior Research Analyst, Yardi Matrix.
Review the latest Multifamily Supply Forecast here.
Yardi Matrix offers the industry’s most comprehensive market intelligence tool for investment professionals, equity investors, lenders and property managers who underwrite and manage investments in commercial real estate. Yardi Matrix covers multifamily, student housing, industrial, office and self storage property types. Email matrix@yardi.com, call 480-663-1149 or visit yardimatrix.com to learn more.
Related Stories
Codes and Standards | Jul 17, 2018
In many markets, green features are more of a requirement for apartment renters
Renters in many U.S. cities have come to expect green features in apartments that they rent, with an eye toward energy efficiency and healthy indoor air.
Multifamily Housing | Jul 13, 2018
Student housing vs. multifamily housing—what are the differences?
While student and multi-family housing share a common building form, it’s the student resident that drives the innovation of new spaces.
Multifamily Housing | Jul 11, 2018
Meet the ‘CoHaus’: N.Y. developer unveils large-scale flats concept for boomers, Gen Xers
With its new CoHaus development, Ward Capital Management is betting on baby boomers downsizing and Gen Xers upsizing.
Sponsored | Multifamily Housing | Jul 10, 2018
Renovated mixed-use development features more desirable rentals
Multifamily Housing | Jul 2, 2018
17-unit condominium will rise one block south of Sunset Boulevard in West Hollywood
SPF:architects is designing the building.
Multifamily Housing | Jun 27, 2018
To take on climate change, go passive
If you haven’t looked seriously at “passive house” design and construction, you should.
Market Data | Jun 19, 2018
America’s housing market still falls short of providing affordable shelter to many
The latest report from the Joint Center for Housing Studies laments the paucity of subsidies to relieve cost burdens of ownership and renting.
Multifamily Housing | Jun 13, 2018
Multifamily visionaries: KTGY’s extraordinary expectations
KTGY Architecture + Planning keeps pushing the boundaries of multifamily housing design in the U.S., Asia, and the Middle East.
| May 30, 2018
Accelerate Live! talk: An AEC giant’s roadmap for integrating design, manufacturing, and construction
In this 15-minute talk at BD+C’s Accelerate Live! conference (May 10, 2018, Chicago), Skender CEO Mark Skender and Chief Design Officer Tim Swanson present the construction giant’s vision for creating a manufacturing-minded, vertically-integrated design-manufacturing-build business model.
| May 30, 2018
Accelerate Live! talk: From micro schools to tiny houses: What’s driving the downsizing economy?
In this 15-minute talk at BD+C’s Accelerate Live! conference (May 10, 2018, Chicago), micro-buildings design expert Aeron Hodges, AIA, explores the key drivers of the micro-buildings movement, and how the trend is spreading into a wide variety of building typologies.
