Yardi Matrix has released its Q4 2023 Multifamily Supply Forecast, emphasizing a short-term spike and plateau of new construction. According to the report, Yardi finds that construction starts have remained "relatively robust" in the first half of 2023, with the under-construction pipeline increasing by 7.6% in Q3.
Because of this, new activity is starting to slow. The forecast for project completions has increased by 5.8% for 2024 and 6.2% for 2025. Completions for later years are forecasted to decrease by roughly 5 percent, according to Yardi.
Long-Term Multifamily Supply Forecast
"We continue to expect a mild recession will start in late 2023 or early 2024," the report states. Yardi's forecast for 2026 has therefore been reduced by 5.8% to 377,622 units, while the baseline forecast for 2027 and 2028 completions has been similarly reduced by 4.7% and 5.4% respectively.
![Multifamily New Supply Forecast Q4 vs. Q3](/sites/default/files/inline-images/Yardi%20Matrix%20Multifamily%20New%20Supply%20Forecast%20Q4%20vs.%20Q3.png)
For the multifamily markets monitored by Yardi Matrix, there are currently 1.2 million units within the under-construction pipeline. Of these units, just under 480,000 are in the lease-up phase, which is in line with the trailing six-month average of 483,000 units but represents a substantial 15.9% increase from the figures of the previous year. Most of these units are expected to be finalized either by the end of 2023 or during the first half of 2024.
What does this mean for 2024?
Though short-term construction starts remained elevated through the first half of 2023, several findings from the third quarter suggest that new development activity is slowing. The near flat growth recorded in Q3 is a sharp departure from the growth the planned pipeline recorded post pandemic—another sign that development interest is slowing, according to Yardi.
Overall, Yardi Matrix anticipates an uptick in construction completions in the next two years. Yardi's construction start data reached its year-over-year peak in May 2023. Both planned and prospective pipelines plateaued in Q3.
"Our baseline forecast envisions new supply bottoming in 2026 at around 377,000 units, while the alternative downside forecast models new supply bottoming in 2026 at 335,000 units," writes Ben Bruckner, Senior Research Analyst, Yardi Matrix.
![Number of units-planned multifamily q3](/sites/default/files/inline-images/Yardi%20Matrix%20number%20of%20planned%20units.png)
Review the latest Multifamily Supply Forecast here.
Yardi Matrix offers the industry’s most comprehensive market intelligence tool for investment professionals, equity investors, lenders and property managers who underwrite and manage investments in commercial real estate. Yardi Matrix covers multifamily, student housing, industrial, office and self storage property types. Email matrix@yardi.com, call 480-663-1149 or visit yardimatrix.com to learn more.
Related Stories
Multifamily Housing | Apr 8, 2015
Roof air leakage issues in multifamily buildings isn’t just 'hot air' talk
Paladino's Robert Hayes talks about venting regulations in New York and how air leaks can cost residents upwards of $3,000 a year.
Mixed-Use | Apr 7, 2015
$100 billion 'city from scratch' taking shape in Saudi Arabia
The new King Abdullah Economic City was conceived to diversify the kingdom's oil-dependent economy by focusing more in its shipping industry.
High-rise Construction | Apr 6, 2015
Melbourne tower will light up depending on weather
The tower will be illuminated by 164-foot-tall beams of LED light based on weather updates from the Bureau of Meteorology.
Multifamily Housing | Apr 2, 2015
Historic Cabrini Green church to be demolished for tech-focused multifamily development
The infamous neighborhood’s Saint Dominic’s Church “was instrumental in taming a part of the city that grew up from the swamps as a lawless district of vice and poverty,” according to the Chicago Architecture blog.
Modular Building | Mar 31, 2015
Phoenix apartment complex will be made from recycled shipping containers
The eight-unit complex, called Containers on Grand, was inspired by the need for affordable and sustainable housing near the city's core.
Multifamily Housing | Mar 31, 2015
Plans for a new condo tower in New York create a ‘communal ecosystem’ for residents
The conceptual plans for a 700-foot-tall, 65-story condominium tower in New York City were unveiled in early March by its architect, Perkins+Will.
Multifamily Housing | Mar 27, 2015
Bathroom fixtures get a starchitect makeover by Bjarke Ingels
This Danish starchitect elevates the toilet paper holder (and other bathroom accessories).
High-rise Construction | Mar 24, 2015
Timber high-rise residential complex will tower over Stockholm waterfront
The four towers, 20 stories each, will be made entirely out of Swedish pine, from frame to façade.
Multifamily Housing | Mar 24, 2015
High tech automation is one new condo development’s calling card
The Sterling Collection in Arizona will include the first robotic parking garage for a West-Coast residential community.
Multifamily Housing | Mar 23, 2015
Multifamily for Millennials: Understanding what Gen Yers want in apartment design
Authentic public spaces, pet-friendly options, and inviting, tech-focused lobbies are among the key ingredients to a successful multifamily rental development, writes BLT Architects’ Michael R. Ytterberg.