Yardi Matrix has released its Q4 2023 Multifamily Supply Forecast, emphasizing a short-term spike and plateau of new construction. According to the report, Yardi finds that construction starts have remained "relatively robust" in the first half of 2023, with the under-construction pipeline increasing by 7.6% in Q3.
Because of this, new activity is starting to slow. The forecast for project completions has increased by 5.8% for 2024 and 6.2% for 2025. Completions for later years are forecasted to decrease by roughly 5 percent, according to Yardi.
Long-Term Multifamily Supply Forecast
"We continue to expect a mild recession will start in late 2023 or early 2024," the report states. Yardi's forecast for 2026 has therefore been reduced by 5.8% to 377,622 units, while the baseline forecast for 2027 and 2028 completions has been similarly reduced by 4.7% and 5.4% respectively.
For the multifamily markets monitored by Yardi Matrix, there are currently 1.2 million units within the under-construction pipeline. Of these units, just under 480,000 are in the lease-up phase, which is in line with the trailing six-month average of 483,000 units but represents a substantial 15.9% increase from the figures of the previous year. Most of these units are expected to be finalized either by the end of 2023 or during the first half of 2024.
What does this mean for 2024?
Though short-term construction starts remained elevated through the first half of 2023, several findings from the third quarter suggest that new development activity is slowing. The near flat growth recorded in Q3 is a sharp departure from the growth the planned pipeline recorded post pandemic—another sign that development interest is slowing, according to Yardi.
Overall, Yardi Matrix anticipates an uptick in construction completions in the next two years. Yardi's construction start data reached its year-over-year peak in May 2023. Both planned and prospective pipelines plateaued in Q3.
"Our baseline forecast envisions new supply bottoming in 2026 at around 377,000 units, while the alternative downside forecast models new supply bottoming in 2026 at 335,000 units," writes Ben Bruckner, Senior Research Analyst, Yardi Matrix.
Review the latest Multifamily Supply Forecast here.
Yardi Matrix offers the industry’s most comprehensive market intelligence tool for investment professionals, equity investors, lenders and property managers who underwrite and manage investments in commercial real estate. Yardi Matrix covers multifamily, student housing, industrial, office and self storage property types. Email matrix@yardi.com, call 480-663-1149 or visit yardimatrix.com to learn more.
Related Stories
MFPRO+ News | Jun 20, 2024
National multifamily outlook: Summer 2024
The multifamily sector continues to be strong in 2024, even when a handful of challenges are present. That is according to the Matrix Multifamily National Report for Summer 2024.
Multifamily Housing | Jun 17, 2024
Elevating multifamily properties through quiet luxury
As the demands of urban living continue to evolve, the need for a tranquil and refined home environment has never been more pronounced.
Multifamily Housing | Jun 14, 2024
AEC inspections are the key to financially viable office to residential adaptive reuse projects
About a year ago our industry was abuzz with an idea that seemed like a one-shot miracle cure for both the shockingly high rate of office vacancies and the worsening housing shortage. The seemingly simple idea of converting empty office buildings to multifamily residential seemed like an easy and elegant solution. However, in the intervening months we’ve seen only a handful of these conversions, despite near universal enthusiasm for the concept.
Adaptive Reuse | Jun 13, 2024
4 ways to transform old buildings into modern assets
As cities grow, their office inventories remain largely stagnant. Yet despite changes to the market—including the impact of hybrid work—opportunities still exist. Enter: “Midlife Metamorphosis.”
Affordable Housing | Jun 12, 2024
Studio Libeskind designs 190 affordable housing apartments for seniors
In Brooklyn, New York, the recently opened Atrium at Sumner offers 132,418 sf of affordable housing for seniors. The $132 million project includes 190 apartments—132 of them available to senior households earning below or at 50% of the area median income and 57 units available to formerly homeless seniors.
MFPRO+ News | Jun 11, 2024
Rents rise in multifamily housing for May 2024
Multifamily rents rose for the fourth month in a row, according to the May 2024 National Multifamily Report. Up 0.6% year-over-year, the average U.S. asking rent increased by $6 in May, up to $1,733.
Apartments | Jun 4, 2024
Apartment sizes on the rise after decade-long shrinking trend
The average size of new apartments in the U.S. saw substantial growth in 2023, bouncing back to 916 sf after a steep decline the previous year. That is according to a recent RentCafe market insight report released this month.
Multifamily Housing | Jun 3, 2024
Grassroots groups becoming a force in housing advocacy
A growing movement of grassroots organizing to support new housing construction is having an impact in city halls across the country. Fed up with high housing costs and the commonly hostile reception to new housing proposals, advocacy groups have sprung up in many communities to attend public meetings to speak in support of developments.
MFPRO+ News | Jun 3, 2024
New York’s office to residential conversion program draws interest from 64 owners
New York City’s Office Conversion Accelerator Program has been contacted by the owners of 64 commercial buildings interested in converting their properties to residential use.
MFPRO+ News | Jun 3, 2024
Seattle mayor wants to scale back energy code to spur more housing construction
Seattle’s mayor recently proposed that the city scale back a scheduled revamping of its building energy code to help boost housing production. The proposal would halt an update to the city’s multifamily and commercial building energy code that is scheduled to take effect later this year.
