First-quarter proposal activity for multifamily housing added to prior quarter gains, reaching a near-record Net Plus/Minus Index (NPMI) of 71%. Multifamily topped the four other housing submarkets, though all performed well.
The first three months of the year saw housing lead all 12 major markets in the PSMJ Resources Quarterly Market Forecast survey of architecture, engineering, and construction (AEC) firms.
PSMJ’s NPMI expresses the difference between the percentage of firms reporting an increase in proposal activity and those reporting a decrease. The QMF has proven to be a solid predictor of market health for the industry since its inception in 2003. A consistent group of over 300 AEC firm leaders participate regularly, with 183 contributing to the most recent survey.
Up 13 percentage points from the final quarter of 2020, multifamily’s NPMI of 71% tied its third-highest score since PSMJ added submarkets to its QMF survey in 2006. In addition to the record-high 76% in the 1st Quarter of 2018 and 72% in the 1st Quarter of 2012, Multifamily hit 71% in the 1st Quarter of 2015.
The 2021 performance marked a remarkable rebound for Multifamily, which dipped to -2% in the 1st Quarter of 2020, its first time in negative figures since 2010. In fact, before the COVID-driven drop a year ago, Multifamily’s NPMI had not fallen below 40% since the 3rd Quarter of 2011.
PSMJ Senior Principal David Burstein, PE, AECPM, noted that the strong performance of Multifamily and the entire Housing sector illustrates the industry’s overall economic health, as Housing growth often leads to activity in commercial, institutional and industrial markets as well. Should Congress pass an infrastructure stimulus bill, adds Burstein, the market could see even more historic growth.
Among respondents that work in the Multifamily sector, only 1% said that they saw a decrease in proposal opportunities in the 1st Quarter, compared with 72% that saw a noticeable increase. The remainder said that activity was about the same as the prior quarter.
The Assisted/Independent Senior Living submarket was another highflyer in the 1st Quarter, climbing 32 NPMI percentage points to 59%, tied for 12th -best among all submarkets. Condominiums bounced another 15 NPMI points to 30%, its best showing in three years.
The two other Housing markets measured in the PSMJ survey remain in rarefied air. The Housing Subdivision market recorded an NPMI of 68%, eclipsing its record-tying 4th -Quarter 2020 performance by 17 percentage points. Single-Family Homes dipped 8 NPMI percentage points to 51% – one of only 3 submarkets to see a decline – but that was still good enough for its second-best NPMI performance in the history of the QMF survey.
Related Stories
Multifamily Housing | May 1, 2018
Call for experts: We’re looking for designers and builders of bicycle storage facilities for multifamily
The editors of Multifamily Design+Construction magazine seek experts for a "how-to" article in the next issue.
Multifamily Housing | Apr 30, 2018
For housing costs, consider all occupancy costs - not just property taxes
It's inaccurate to focus on property taxes as a percentage of home value without acknowledging the actual cost of housing to which this percentage is applied.
Multifamily Housing | Apr 27, 2018
1912 publishing house becomes luxury residential condominiums
Gottesman Architecture and GSArch designed the renovated building.
Adaptive Reuse | Apr 26, 2018
Edison Lofts building is New Jersey’s largest non-waterfront adaptive reuse project
Minno & Wasko Architects & Planners designed the building.
Multifamily Housing | Apr 24, 2018
Adrian Smith + Gordon Gill Architecture designs 47-story condo tower in Miami
The tower will be located in Miami’s South Brickell neighborhood.
Multifamily Housing | Apr 23, 2018
Mass timber design for multifamily housing
The adaptability of urban development could be revolutionized through the inherent strength of mass timber construction.
Multifamily Housing | Apr 18, 2018
MAA, Greystar nation’s largest apartment owner, developer
With 5,651 apartment units started in 2017, Charleston, S.C.-based Greystar Real Estate Partners was the most active multifamily rental developer last year, according to the 2018 NMHC 50 report.
High-rise Construction | Apr 17, 2018
Developers reveal plans for 1,422-foot-tall skyscraper in Chicago
The tower would be the second tallest in the city.
Multifamily Housing | Apr 10, 2018
Luxury apartment community in southwest Charlotte provides 288 one- and two-bedroom units
Each of the six buildings will offer 28 corner units.
Multifamily Housing | Apr 10, 2018
Studio Gang’s 11 Hoyt brings over 480 apartments and 50,000-sf of amenity space to NYC
The tower is Tishman Speyer’s first ground up condominium project in New York City.