The design and construction outlook for Multifamily Housing is again moving in the right direction, according to the PSMJ Resources’ Quarterly Market Forecast (QMF).
After a first quarter that saw the multifamily market suffer its lowest level of proposal activity in nearly a decade, PSMJ’s quarterly survey of architecture, engineering, and construction firm executives reported a +7% net plus/minus index (NPMI), up from the -2% recorded in the first three months of the year.
PSMJ’s NPMI expresses the difference between the percentage of firms reporting an increase in proposal activity and those reporting a decrease. The QMF has proven to be a solid predictor of market health for the AEC industry since its inception in 2003. A consistent group of over 300 firm leaders participate regularly, with 171 contributing to the most recent survey.
As unimpressive as multifamily’s second quarter NPMI is—particularly considering that it experienced seven consecutive years of quarterly NPMIs above 40% through the end of 2019—the upturn is significant. The market’s negative NPMI in the first quarter was its lowest since it capped 11 consecutive quarters of negative proposal opportunity growth with a -5% in the third quarter of 2010.
Multifamily Housing Market Proposal Activity – 1Q08 to 2Q20 (NPMI)
The multifamily rebound was part of overall improving conditions for most of the Housing market. Even with the COVID-19 crisis slowing down the overall economy, housing’s rebound may be driven in part by historically low mortgage interest rates.
Housing’s NPMI increased from -19% in the first quarter to +2% in the second quarter, making it one of only four major markets with a positive NPMI among the 12 assessed in PSMJ’s QMF. Water/wastewater (20%), energy/utilities (15%) and healthcare (10%) were the others.
Among the firms that work in the multifamily sector, 31% said that proposal activity increased in the second quarter, while 24% said it decreased. The remainder said the market was relatively flat.
PSMJ Senior Principal David Burstein, PE, AECPM, predicts that single-family housing will rebound faster and stronger than multifamily in the coming months.
“Overall, the housing market is very strong,” says Burstein. “For many years, this market has been dominated by multifamily housing as people moved into cities. Recently, that trend has reversed. Single-family housing in suburbs is now stronger than multifamily housing in large cities. This is even more true for new condominiums than for new apartment rental housing.”
Among housing’s other submarkets, single-family properties (individual) saw its NPMI improve from -31% in the first quarter to +9 in the second quarters.
Single-family developments remained well into the negative at -12%, but that was up from -28%.
Senior/assisted living ticked up from -3% to -1%, while condominiums continued to struggle (-28% in Q1 to -26% in Q2).
Related Stories
Multifamily Housing | Jul 1, 2015
Baby boomers—not Millennials—will drive demand for apartments long term, according to U.S. Fed study
The volatile U.S. multifamily housing market has returned to pre-recession investment levels, driven largely by Millennials putting off home-buying and settling for rentals, but in the long term it will be baby boomers that will drive the market as they downsize.
High-rise Construction | Jun 23, 2015
The world's best new skyscrapers for 2015
One World Trade Center and Abu Dhabi's Burj Mohammed Bin Rashid Tower are among the four towers named Best Tall Buildings by the Council on Tall Buildings and Urban Habitat.
Multifamily Housing | Jun 22, 2015
MAD Architects unveils first U.S. residential project, in Beverly Hills
The “hillside village” edifice will be covered in drought-tolerant vines and succulents.
High-rise Construction | Jun 15, 2015
Cornell Tech breaks ground on world's first Passive House residential high-rise
To achieve Passive House standards, Cornell Tech Residential will incorporate a number of sustainability-focused design elements. The façade, constructed of a prefabricated metal panel system, acts as a thermally insulated blanket wrapping the building structure.
Wood | Jun 2, 2015
Michael Green Architecture designs world's tallest wood building for Paris competition
“Just as Gustave Eiffel shattered our conception of what was possible a century and a half ago, this project can push the envelope of wood innovation with France in the forefront," said architect Michael Green of the project.
Multifamily Housing | Jun 1, 2015
Sacramento moves forward on multifamily project with new modular supplier
Guerdon Modular Buildings will provide modules for 118 apartments.
Multifamily Housing | May 30, 2015
Fannie Mae offers incentives for energy, water efficiency in multifamily buildings
Owners of apartment buildings and cooperatives may be eligible for loans with reduced interest rates for upgrades that reduce their energy or water consumption by at least 20%, under a new Fannie Mae refinancing program.
Multifamily Housing | May 30, 2015
Energy Department releases resources to assess building energy benchmarking policies, programs
The new handbook demonstrates methodologies using real data from New York City.
Multifamily Housing | May 28, 2015
Census Bureau: 10 U.S. cities now have one million people or more
California and Texas each have three of the one-million-plus cities.
Multifamily Housing | May 27, 2015
‘European’ living comes to The Woodlands with its first condo tower
Treviso at Waterway Square will offer a dynamic downtown setting with numerous live/work/play options.
