The design and construction outlook for Multifamily Housing is again moving in the right direction, according to the PSMJ Resources’ Quarterly Market Forecast (QMF).
After a first quarter that saw the multifamily market suffer its lowest level of proposal activity in nearly a decade, PSMJ’s quarterly survey of architecture, engineering, and construction firm executives reported a +7% net plus/minus index (NPMI), up from the -2% recorded in the first three months of the year.
PSMJ’s NPMI expresses the difference between the percentage of firms reporting an increase in proposal activity and those reporting a decrease. The QMF has proven to be a solid predictor of market health for the AEC industry since its inception in 2003. A consistent group of over 300 firm leaders participate regularly, with 171 contributing to the most recent survey.
As unimpressive as multifamily’s second quarter NPMI is—particularly considering that it experienced seven consecutive years of quarterly NPMIs above 40% through the end of 2019—the upturn is significant. The market’s negative NPMI in the first quarter was its lowest since it capped 11 consecutive quarters of negative proposal opportunity growth with a -5% in the third quarter of 2010.
Multifamily Housing Market Proposal Activity – 1Q08 to 2Q20 (NPMI)
The multifamily rebound was part of overall improving conditions for most of the Housing market. Even with the COVID-19 crisis slowing down the overall economy, housing’s rebound may be driven in part by historically low mortgage interest rates.
Housing’s NPMI increased from -19% in the first quarter to +2% in the second quarter, making it one of only four major markets with a positive NPMI among the 12 assessed in PSMJ’s QMF. Water/wastewater (20%), energy/utilities (15%) and healthcare (10%) were the others.
Among the firms that work in the multifamily sector, 31% said that proposal activity increased in the second quarter, while 24% said it decreased. The remainder said the market was relatively flat.
PSMJ Senior Principal David Burstein, PE, AECPM, predicts that single-family housing will rebound faster and stronger than multifamily in the coming months.
“Overall, the housing market is very strong,” says Burstein. “For many years, this market has been dominated by multifamily housing as people moved into cities. Recently, that trend has reversed. Single-family housing in suburbs is now stronger than multifamily housing in large cities. This is even more true for new condominiums than for new apartment rental housing.”
Among housing’s other submarkets, single-family properties (individual) saw its NPMI improve from -31% in the first quarter to +9 in the second quarters.
Single-family developments remained well into the negative at -12%, but that was up from -28%.
Senior/assisted living ticked up from -3% to -1%, while condominiums continued to struggle (-28% in Q1 to -26% in Q2).
Related Stories
Office Buildings | Feb 18, 2015
Commercial real estate developers optimistic, but concerned about taxes, jobs outlook
The outlook for the commercial real estate industry remains strong despite growing concerns over sluggish job creation and higher taxes, according to a new survey of commercial real estate professionals by NAIOP.
Multifamily Housing | Feb 17, 2015
NYC multifamily sales increased by 39% in 2014
For New York City as a whole, $20 million-plus deals accounted for more than half of all transactions.
Multifamily Housing | Feb 17, 2015
California launches pilot program to finance multifamily retrofits for energy efficiency
The Obama Administration and the state of California are teaming with the Chicago-based MacArthur Foundation on a pilot program whose goal is to unlock Property-Assessed Clean Energy financing for multifamily housing.
Multifamily Housing | Feb 17, 2015
Young Millennials likely to return home
Ninety percent of individuals born between 1980 and 1984 and who hold a Bachelor’s degree left home before they were 27 years hold. However, half of this group later returned to their parents’ home, according to a study by the National Longitudinal Study of Youth.
High-rise Construction | Feb 17, 2015
Work begins on Bjarke Ingels' pixelated tower in Calgary
Construction on Calgary’s newest skyscraper, the 66-story Telus Sky Tower, recently broke ground.
Mixed-Use | Feb 13, 2015
First Look: Sacramento Planning Commission approves mixed-use tower by the new Kings arena
The project, named Downtown Plaza Tower, will have 16 stories and will include a public lobby, retail and office space, 250 hotel rooms, and residences at the top of the tower.
Codes and Standards | Feb 12, 2015
New Appraisal Institute form aids in analysis of green commercial building features
The Institute’s Commercial Green and Energy Efficient Addendum offers a communication tool that lenders can use as part of the scope of work.
Multifamily Housing | Feb 9, 2015
GSEs and their lenders were active on the multifamily front in 2014
Fannie Mae and Freddie Mac securitized more than $57 billion for 850,000-plus units.
Multifamily Housing | Feb 6, 2015
Fannie Mae to offer lower interest rates to LEED-certified multifamily properties
For certified properties, Fannie Mae is now granting a 10 basis point reduction in the interest rate of a multifamily refinance, acquisition, or supplemental mortgage loan.
Cultural Facilities | Feb 5, 2015
5 developments selected as 'best in urban placemaking'
Falls Park on the Reedy in Greenville, S.C., and the Grand Rapids (Mich.) Downtown Market are among the finalists for the 2015 Rudy Bruner Award for Urban Excellence.
