Multifamily housing will remain a robust market for A/E/C companies heading into 2020, according to the most recent results of PSMJ’s Quarterly Market Forecast (QMF) survey. For the third quarter of 2019, the survey found that less than 9% of the nearly 100 respondents doing multifamily work reported a decrease in proposal activity compared with the prior quarter, while more than 54% saw an increase.
The Multifamily market’s third quarter Net Plus/Minus Index (NPMI) of 46% marked the 31st consecutive quarter that the submarket exceeded an NPMI of 40%. The last time it was below that level was the third quarter of 2011.
PSMJ’s NPMI measures the difference between the percentage of firms reporting an increase in proposal activity and those reporting a decrease, quarter over quarter. PSMJ has been using the QMF as a predictor of the A/E/C industry’s health since 2003, tracking 12 major markets and 58 submarkets every three months. The company chose proposal activity to gauge the industry’s long-term outlook because it is among the earliest stages of the project lifecycle. Approximately 200 firms participate in the survey each quarter.
The Senior and Assisted Living submarket also performed well with a third-quarter NPMI of 49%. Only 4 of the 86 responding firms working in the senior care submarket reported declining proposal activity. The Senior/Assisted Living market has also been a consistently stellar performer in the QMF. Its NPMI hasn’t dipped below 50% since the fourth quarter of 2012.
“Multifamily and Senior/Assisted Living have been two of the hottest markets for proposal activity for quite some time, not only among the Housing submarkets, but throughout all 58 submarkets,” says PSMJ’s Greg Hart, a consultant who also oversees the QMF. “It is remarkable that both have seen such steady proposal growth for so long. Very few submarkets have been this consistently strong throughout the 16-year history of our survey.”
Housing (all submarkets) recorded an NPMI of 40% in the third quarter, a potentially noteworthy drop from the 59% recorded in the second quarter. After ranking the second-highest of the 12 major markets measured in the second quarter, Housing fell completely out of the top five in the third quarter. Transportation (49%) and Healthcare (46%) were tops among major markets.
Among the other Housing submarkets, Condominiums recorded a respectable NPMI of 24%, its sixth consecutive quarter in the mid-20% range. Individual single-family homes (15%) and subdivisions (8%) trailed the Housing field in the third quarter, falling markedly from 25% and 23%, respectively, in the second quarter. PSMJ Director and Senior Consultant Dave Burstein, PE, notes that the results are still positive, if potentially troubling in the longer term. He adds that lower mortgage interest rates on the horizon are likely to spur a rebound in the single-family and subdivision subsectors.
PSMJ Resources, Inc., based in Newton, Massachusetts, is a publishing, executive education, and advisory company dedicated to serving architecture, engineering and construction (A/E/C) organizations worldwide.
Related Stories
| Jul 19, 2013
Reconstruction Sector Construction Firms [2013 Giants 300 Report]
Structure Tone, DPR, Gilbane top Building Design+Construction's 2013 ranking of the largest reconstruction contractor and construction management firms in the U.S.
| Jul 19, 2013
Reconstruction Sector Engineering Firms [2013 Giants 300 Report]
URS, STV, Wiss Janney Elstner top Building Design+Construction's 2013 ranking of the largest reconstruction engineering and engineering/architecture firms in the U.S.
| Jul 19, 2013
Reconstruction Sector Architecture Firms [2013 Giants 300 Report]
Stantec, HOK, HDR top Building Design+Construction's 2013 ranking of the largest reconstruction architecture and architecture/engineering firms in the U.S.
| Jul 19, 2013
Renovation, adaptive reuse stay strong, providing fertile ground for growth [2013 Giants 300 Report]
Increasingly, owners recognize that existing buildings represent a considerable resource in embodied energy, which can often be leveraged for lower front-end costs and a faster turnaround than new construction.
| Jul 17, 2013
Top Multifamily Construction Firms [2013 Giants 300 Report]
Lend Lease, Clark Group, Balfour Beatty top Building Design+Construction's 2013 ranking of the largest multifamily contractors and construction management firms in the United States.
| Jul 17, 2013
Top Multifamily Engineering Firms [2013 Giants 300 Report]
STV, URS, AECOM top Building Design+Construction's 2013 ranking of the largest multifamily engineering and engineering/architecture firms in the United States.
| Jul 17, 2013
Top Multifamily Architecture Firms [2013 Giants 300 Report]
IBI Group, Niles Bolton, Perkins Eastman top Building Design+Construction's 2013 ranking of the largest multifamily architecture and architecture/engineering firms in the United States.
| Jul 17, 2013
CBRE recognizes nation's best green research projects
A rating system for comparative tenant energy use and a detailed evaluation of Energy Star energy management strategies are among the green research projects to be honored by commercial real estate giant CBRE Group.
| Jul 16, 2013
Amid single-family housing’s comeback, rental market not skipping a beat [2013 Giants 300 Report]
As the economy recovers and homeownership becomes a realistic option for more consumers, will it spell the end of the multifamily sector’s hot streak? The experts say no.
| Jul 15, 2013
Developer plans to convert historic Kansas City high-rise to mixed-use with 55 new apartments
An $18 million redevelopment proposal would convert a historic Kansas City high-rise into a commercial/residential property.