By the end of 2015, 49 of 54 U.S. markets tracked by CoStar Group, the commercial real estate research firm, are expected to see their apartment vacancy rates increase.
That would suggest that supply in the multifamily sector is catching up with—or in several markets surpassing—demand. Last year, the 340,000 multifamily units started represented the highest level of construction since the 1980s. And some 20,000 new apartments are expected to come online in both Dallas and Denver alone this year.
Yet, despite the threat of oversupply there appears to be a consensus emerging, that positive demographic and economic forces could keep multifamily demand robust—and construction humming—at least through 2016.
The ever-optimistic National Association of Home Builders, for example, forecasts 358,000 multifamily starts in 2015, a level that Robert Denk, NAHB’s senior economist, thinks is “healthy and sustainable.” He told Multifamily Housing News recently that he expects that construction level to be maintained “for the next couple of years.” Denk also expects the country’s economic growth rates to be “high” in 2016.
In its Fourth-Quarter and Year-End 2014 Report, CoStar acknowledges that developers may need to “dial back” new construction after 2015 to keep vacancies (which ended last year at their lowest point in 10 years) and rents at healthy levels. CoStar estimates that new supply could push vacancy rates to 5.5% by the end of 2015.
On the other hand, today’s renter cohort, comprised largely of Millennials, “will take longer to transition into home buying than any demographic group in the last 30 years—obviously a good trend for apartment owners,” says CoStar. The research firm also foresees a 2-million-person increase in Millennial employment over the next few years, resulting in 1.53 million new households. “Apartment investors will find plenty of demand for new product.”
While some renters eventually will start families and relocate to homes in the suburbs, “a larger share of older households will be in the rental market,” mostly for lifestyle reasons. CoStar expects landlords to make a concerted effort to address the needs of renters as they age.
Multifamily as an asset class now exceeds $3 trillion, according to Andrew Florance, Founder and CEO of CoStar Group, which has detailed information on over 450,000 apartment properties in its database, the industry’s largest. More than 100 million Americans now rent, and 30 million people move annually. On Feb. 17, CoStar re-launched Apartments.com, its website for online searches of apartments, condos, and rental homes. Florance projects that, based on anticipated demand, within the next 10 years CoStar Group could achieve $550 million in annual revenue and $250 million in annual cash flow from this site.
CoStar will invest $75 million into marketing Apartments.com in 2015, a multimedia campaign that is scheduled to kick off on March 1.
Related Stories
Adaptive Reuse | Mar 21, 2024
Massachusetts launches program to spur office-to-residential conversions statewide
Massachusetts Gov. Maura Healey recently launched a program to help cities across the state identify underused office buildings that are best suited for residential conversions.
Multifamily Housing | Mar 19, 2024
Jim Chapman Construction Group completes its second college town BTR community
JCCG's 200-unit Cottages at Lexington, in Athens, Ga., is fully leased.
Multifamily Housing | Mar 19, 2024
Two senior housing properties renovated with 608 replacement windows
Renovation of the two properties, with 200 apartments for seniors, was financed through a special public/private arrangement.
MFPRO+ New Projects | Mar 18, 2024
Luxury apartments in New York restore and renovate a century-old residential building
COOKFOX Architects has completed a luxury apartment building at 378 West End Avenue in New York City. The project restored and renovated the original residence built in 1915, while extending a new structure east on West 78th Street.
Multifamily Housing | Mar 18, 2024
YWCA building in Boston’s Back Bay converted into 210 affordable rental apartments
Renovation of YWCA at 140 Clarendon Street will serve 111 previously unhoused families and individuals.
Adaptive Reuse | Mar 15, 2024
San Francisco voters approve tax break for office-to-residential conversions
San Francisco voters recently approved a ballot measure to offer tax breaks to developers who convert commercial buildings to residential use. The tax break applies to conversions of up to 5 million sf of commercial space through 2030.
Apartments | Mar 13, 2024
A landscaped canyon runs through this luxury apartment development in Denver
Set to open in April, One River North is a 16-story, 187-unit luxury apartment building with private, open-air terraces located in Denver’s RiNo arts district. Biophilic design plays a central role throughout the building, allowing residents to connect with nature and providing a distinctive living experience.
Affordable Housing | Mar 12, 2024
An all-electric affordable housing project in Southern California offers 48 apartments plus community spaces
In Santa Monica, Calif., Brunson Terrace is an all-electric, 100% affordable housing project that’s over eight times more energy efficient than similar buildings, according to architect Brooks + Scarpa. Located across the street from Santa Monica College, the net zero building has been certified LEED Platinum.
MFPRO+ News | Mar 12, 2024
Multifamily housing starts and permitting activity drop 10% year-over-year
The past year saw over 1.4 million new homes added to the national housing inventory. Despite the 4% growth in units, both the number of new homes under construction and the number of permits dropped year-over-year.
Affordable Housing | Mar 11, 2024
Los Angeles’s streamlined approval policies leading to boom in affordable housing plans
Since December 2022, Los Angeles’s planning department has received plans for more than 13,770 affordable units. The number of units put in the approval pipeline in roughly one year is just below the total number of affordable units approved in Los Angeles in 2020, 2021, and 2022 combined.