By the end of 2015, 49 of 54 U.S. markets tracked by CoStar Group, the commercial real estate research firm, are expected to see their apartment vacancy rates increase.
That would suggest that supply in the multifamily sector is catching up with—or in several markets surpassing—demand. Last year, the 340,000 multifamily units started represented the highest level of construction since the 1980s. And some 20,000 new apartments are expected to come online in both Dallas and Denver alone this year.
Yet, despite the threat of oversupply there appears to be a consensus emerging, that positive demographic and economic forces could keep multifamily demand robust—and construction humming—at least through 2016.
The ever-optimistic National Association of Home Builders, for example, forecasts 358,000 multifamily starts in 2015, a level that Robert Denk, NAHB’s senior economist, thinks is “healthy and sustainable.” He told Multifamily Housing News recently that he expects that construction level to be maintained “for the next couple of years.” Denk also expects the country’s economic growth rates to be “high” in 2016.
In its Fourth-Quarter and Year-End 2014 Report, CoStar acknowledges that developers may need to “dial back” new construction after 2015 to keep vacancies (which ended last year at their lowest point in 10 years) and rents at healthy levels. CoStar estimates that new supply could push vacancy rates to 5.5% by the end of 2015.
On the other hand, today’s renter cohort, comprised largely of Millennials, “will take longer to transition into home buying than any demographic group in the last 30 years—obviously a good trend for apartment owners,” says CoStar. The research firm also foresees a 2-million-person increase in Millennial employment over the next few years, resulting in 1.53 million new households. “Apartment investors will find plenty of demand for new product.”
While some renters eventually will start families and relocate to homes in the suburbs, “a larger share of older households will be in the rental market,” mostly for lifestyle reasons. CoStar expects landlords to make a concerted effort to address the needs of renters as they age.
Multifamily as an asset class now exceeds $3 trillion, according to Andrew Florance, Founder and CEO of CoStar Group, which has detailed information on over 450,000 apartment properties in its database, the industry’s largest. More than 100 million Americans now rent, and 30 million people move annually. On Feb. 17, CoStar re-launched Apartments.com, its website for online searches of apartments, condos, and rental homes. Florance projects that, based on anticipated demand, within the next 10 years CoStar Group could achieve $550 million in annual revenue and $250 million in annual cash flow from this site.
CoStar will invest $75 million into marketing Apartments.com in 2015, a multimedia campaign that is scheduled to kick off on March 1.
Related Stories
| Aug 11, 2010
Gensler, HOK, HDR among the nation's leading reconstruction design firms, according to BD+C's Giants 300 report
A ranking of the Top 100 Reconstruction Design Firms based on Building Design+Construction's 2009 Giants 300 survey. For more Giants 300 rankings, visit http://www.BDCnetwork.com/Giants
| Aug 11, 2010
Parsons Brinckerhoff, Dewberry among nation's largest multifamily design firms, according to BD+C's Giants 300 report
A ranking of the Top 75 Multifamily Design Firms based on Building Design+Construction's 2009 Giants 300 survey. For more Giants 300 rankings, visit /giants
| Aug 11, 2010
ASHRAE introduces building energy label prototype
Most of us know the fuel efficiency of our cars, but what about our buildings? ASHRAE is working to change that, moving one step closer today to introducing its building energy labeling program with release of a prototype label at its 2009 Annual Conference in Louisville, Ky.
| Aug 11, 2010
RMJM unveils design details for $1B green development in Turkey
International architecture company RMJM today announced details of the $1 billion Varyap Meridian development it is designing in Istanbul’s new residential and business district, which will be one of the "greenest" projects in Turkey. The luxury 372,000-square-meter development on a site totalling 107,000 square meters will be located in the Atasehir district of Istanbul, which the Turkish government intends to transform into the country’s new financial district and business center.
| Aug 11, 2010
Urban Land Institute honors five 'outstanding' developments in Europe, Middle East, and Africa
Five outstanding developments have been selected as winners of the Urban Land Institute (ULI) 2009 Awards for Excellence: Europe, Middle East, and Africa (EMEA) competition. This year, the competition also included the announcement of two special award winners. The Awards for Excellence competition is widely regarded as the land use industry’s most prestigious recognition program.
| Aug 11, 2010
10 tips for mitigating influenza in buildings
Adopting simple, common-sense measures and proper maintenance protocols can help mitigate the spread of influenza in buildings. In addition, there are system upgrades that can be performed to further mitigate risks. Trane Commercial Systems offers 10 tips to consider during the cold and flu season.
| Aug 11, 2010
Brad Pitt’s foundation unveils 14 duplex designs for New Orleans’ Lower 9th Ward
Gehry Partners, William McDonough + Partners, and BNIM are among 14 architecture firms commissioned by Brad Pitt's Make It Right foundation to develop duplex housing concepts specifically for rebuilding the Lower 9th Ward in New Orleans. All 14 concepts were released yesterday.
| Aug 11, 2010
NAVFAC releases guidelines for sustainable reconstruction of Navy facilities
The guidelines provide specific guidance for installation commanders, assessment teams, estimators, programmers and building designers for identifying the sustainable opportunities, synergies, strategies, features and benefits for improving installations following a disaster instead of simply repairing or replacing them as they were prior to the disaster.
| Aug 11, 2010
MulvannyG2 Architecture wins “Best Mixed-use Development—Future” award
MulvannyG2 Architecture’s project, Aquapearl in Taipei, Taiwan, was honored by Cityscape Asia 2009 as the “Best Mixed-use Development -Future” on May 20, 2009 at the annual conference in Singapore.
| Aug 11, 2010
REDD and Corcoran Group Real Estate developing eco-friendly boutique condos in Brooklyn's Vinegar Hill
REDD and Corcoran Group Real Estate are developing 100 Gold, a 10-unit boutique condominium complex in Brooklyn's Vinegar Hill that consists of (6) one bedrooms, (2) duplex studios—one with a private yard, and (2) penthouses—duplex apartments with one bedroom and loft, and private terraces.