By the end of 2015, 49 of 54 U.S. markets tracked by CoStar Group, the commercial real estate research firm, are expected to see their apartment vacancy rates increase.
That would suggest that supply in the multifamily sector is catching up with—or in several markets surpassing—demand. Last year, the 340,000 multifamily units started represented the highest level of construction since the 1980s. And some 20,000 new apartments are expected to come online in both Dallas and Denver alone this year.
Yet, despite the threat of oversupply there appears to be a consensus emerging, that positive demographic and economic forces could keep multifamily demand robust—and construction humming—at least through 2016.
The ever-optimistic National Association of Home Builders, for example, forecasts 358,000 multifamily starts in 2015, a level that Robert Denk, NAHB’s senior economist, thinks is “healthy and sustainable.” He told Multifamily Housing News recently that he expects that construction level to be maintained “for the next couple of years.” Denk also expects the country’s economic growth rates to be “high” in 2016.
In its Fourth-Quarter and Year-End 2014 Report, CoStar acknowledges that developers may need to “dial back” new construction after 2015 to keep vacancies (which ended last year at their lowest point in 10 years) and rents at healthy levels. CoStar estimates that new supply could push vacancy rates to 5.5% by the end of 2015.
On the other hand, today’s renter cohort, comprised largely of Millennials, “will take longer to transition into home buying than any demographic group in the last 30 years—obviously a good trend for apartment owners,” says CoStar. The research firm also foresees a 2-million-person increase in Millennial employment over the next few years, resulting in 1.53 million new households. “Apartment investors will find plenty of demand for new product.”
While some renters eventually will start families and relocate to homes in the suburbs, “a larger share of older households will be in the rental market,” mostly for lifestyle reasons. CoStar expects landlords to make a concerted effort to address the needs of renters as they age.
Multifamily as an asset class now exceeds $3 trillion, according to Andrew Florance, Founder and CEO of CoStar Group, which has detailed information on over 450,000 apartment properties in its database, the industry’s largest. More than 100 million Americans now rent, and 30 million people move annually. On Feb. 17, CoStar re-launched Apartments.com, its website for online searches of apartments, condos, and rental homes. Florance projects that, based on anticipated demand, within the next 10 years CoStar Group could achieve $550 million in annual revenue and $250 million in annual cash flow from this site.
CoStar will invest $75 million into marketing Apartments.com in 2015, a multimedia campaign that is scheduled to kick off on March 1.
Related Stories
| Nov 7, 2014
Arts college uses creative financing to build 493-bed student housing
Many states have cut back funding for higher education in recent years, and securing money for new housing has been tougher than ever for many colleges and universities. A recent residence hall project in Boston involving three colleges provides an inspiring example of how necessity can spawn invention in financing strategies.
| Nov 7, 2014
Prefab helps Valparaiso student residence project meet an ambitious deadline
Few colleges or universities have embraced prefabrication more wholeheartedly than Valparaiso (Ind.) University. The Lutheran-based institution completed a $27 million residence hall this past summer in which the structural elements were all precast.
| Nov 3, 2014
Novel 'self-climbing' elevator operates during construction of high-rise buildings
The JumpLift system from KONE uses a mobile machine room that moves upward as the construction progresses, speeding construction of tall towers.
| Nov 3, 2014
Cairo's ultra-green mixed-use development will be topped with flowing solar canopy
The solar canopy will shade green rooftop terraces and sky villas atop the nine-story structure.
| Oct 31, 2014
Dubai plans world’s next tallest towers
Emaar Properties has unveiled plans for a new project containing two towers that will top the charts in height, making them the world’s tallest towers once completed.
| Oct 29, 2014
Better guidance for appraising green buildings is steadily emerging
The Appraisal Foundation is striving to improve appraisers’ understanding of green valuation.
| Oct 27, 2014
Studio Gang Architects designs residential tower with exoskeleton-like exterior for Miami
Jeanne Gang's design reinvents the Florida room with shaded, asymmetrical balconies.
| Oct 21, 2014
Passive House concept gains momentum in apartment design
Passive House, an ultra-efficient building standard that originated in Germany, has been used for single-family homes since its inception in 1990. Only recently has the concept made its way into the U.S. commercial buildings market.
| Oct 21, 2014
Perkins Eastman white paper explores state of the senior living industry in the Carolinas
Among the experts interviewed for the white paper, there was a general consensus that the model for continuing-care retirement communities is changing, driven by both the changing consumers and more prevalent global interest on the effects of aging.
| Oct 16, 2014
Perkins+Will white paper examines alternatives to flame retardant building materials
The white paper includes a list of 193 flame retardants, including 29 discovered in building and household products, 50 found in the indoor environment, and 33 in human blood, milk, and tissues.
