The commercial property and casualty (P&C) market is driven by two powerful, albeit conflicting, forces: large catastrophic losses and excess capital. As a substantial part of real estate development is happening in areas exposed to floods, wildfires, severe storms, hurricanes and earthquakes, insurance companies are rethinking how to deploy their capital to manage aggregation in catastrophe exposed areas.
USI Insurance Services, a global insurance brokerage and consulting firm, recently released its 2019 Commercial Property & Casualty Market Outlook, which provides insight into the current dynamics of the property and casualty insurance market, as well as a deeper dive into covered sectors that include commercial real estate and construction, transportation, manufacturing/distribution, environmental, and aviation.
The report found a stable P&C industry in 2018, despite it having experienced five of the 15 costliest global catastrophes in the past two years, coupled with multiple large wildfires and other major loss events, which collectively caused in excess of $125 billion in total insured damages.
The P&C industry remains well capitalized, and its surplus now stands at $760 billion. Consequently, the industry has resisted significant and sustained market-wide rate increases, even as insured property losses from U.S. catastrophes alone went from $14.3 billion for 2.4 million claims from 33 catastrophes in 2010 to $101.9 billion for 5.2 million claims from 46 catastrophes in 2017, according to Property Claims Services and the U.S. Bureau of Economic Analysis.
It remains to be seen whether such restraint is sustainable if catastrophic events continue to increase and wreak havoc. USI says while most insureds should expect a flat to plus-5% rate change, but cautions that current rate trends will be difficult to maintain if the frequency and severity of catastrophes don’t abate.
The report notes specifically that pricing challenges are likely to persist in specific coverage lines such as property-exposed accounts in wind-prone areas, habitational risks, and large commercial trucking fleets.
Carriers, says USI, are also more likely to ask for moderate-to-high rate increases for many insureds in the public company directors’ and officers’ space, employment practices liability and medical malpractice for healthcare providers in certain classes.
Within the commercial real estate sector, multifamily properties could have the hardest time finding willing insurers. Beyond the natural catastrophe losses in 2017 and 2018, multifamily portfolios are producing fire and water damage losses, causing some carriers to either exit this risk class entirely, or increase rates and deductibles even for low-loss level insureds. With overall segment capacity shrinking, insureds with exposures to natural catastrophe and below average loss history can expect significant rate increases.
This could be especially true for frame construction, due to numerous large fire losses in recent years.
Despite the frequency of catastrophic events, insurers have so far resisted steady and high rate increases. Image: USI
The prospects are a bit brighter for nonresidential commercial properties, whose owners, developers, and managers have a distinct advantage, says USI: Quality risks remain the focus of carrier capacity offerings. Nevertheless, portfolios exposed to natural catastrophe will require a disciplined approach to achieve an optimal outcome in the marketplace.
USI joins other market observers in its expectation that spending on commercial construction will rise in 2019. Total construction spending may produce a 4% increase in insurance premiums in 2019, compared to 2018, while rates remain mostly flat in certain jurisdictions.
For larger construction projects, safety, specialization, timeliness, and staying within budget remain the biggest risks. “With good risk management and the use of Controlled Insurance Programs (CIPs), insureds can avoid disruptions, reduce loss costs, and meet expectations of all parties who have an insurable risk,” USI’s states.
Its report found in commercial construction a greater emphasis on jobsite safety to reduce claims per man-hour. The widespread application of BIM is fostering open collaboration and new ideas that are helping to mitigate risk, too.
USI also comments on the renewed interest in modular and prefabricated construction, which brings with it benefits of quality control and worker safety. However, those methods also raise insurance-related concerns, such as how a general liability insurance policy would respond to a potential claim, and how employees should be categories within their workers compensation programs.
Related Stories
Multifamily Housing | Nov 15, 2017
6 noteworthy multifamily developments: artists housing, tech lofts, resort-style senior living
These recently completed projects represent emerging trends and design innovations in the multifamily sector.
Multifamily Housing | Nov 8, 2017
No place like home: LA’s The Six provides permanent supportive housing for veterans
The 52-unit development gives hope and dignity to homeless or disabled veterans and others in need.
Architects | Nov 6, 2017
How to start a negotiation: Begin as you mean to continue
How you start a negotiation often will determine where you end up, writes negotiation and mediation expert Brenda Radmacher.
Multifamily Housing | Oct 29, 2017
Multifamily visionaries: The Beach Company’s family ties
Spanning four generations, The Beach Company continues to expand its development footprint across the Southeast.
Multifamily Housing | Oct 9, 2017
6 new products for the multifamily construction market
Bamboo wall panels, an adaptable prep sink, and a two-tiered bike parking system are among the product innovations geared for multifamily buildings.
AEC Tech | Oct 6, 2017
How professional bias can sabotage industry transformation
Professional bias can take the form of change-resistant thinking that can keep transformational or innovative ambitions at bay. Tech consultant Nate Miller presents three kinds of bias that often emerge when a professional is confronted with new technology.
Multifamily Housing | Sep 27, 2017
Pickleball, anyone?
Two-and-a-half million Americans are playing the game with the funny name.
Multifamily Housing | Sep 5, 2017
Free WiFi, meeting rooms most popular business services amenities in multifamily developments
Complimentary, building-wide WiFi is more or less a given for marketing purposes in the multifamily arena.
Multifamily Housing | Aug 24, 2017
Storage units, lounges most popular indoor and outdoor amenities in multifamily developments
Tenants and condo owners crave extra space for their stuff. Most developers are happy to oblige.
Green | Aug 24, 2017
Business case for WELL still developing after first generation office fitouts completed
The costs ranged from 50 cents to $4 per sf, according to a ULI report.