Energy consumption in the U.S., which has slowed recently, is projected to inch up by only 0.3% per year through 2040, which would be less than half the projected population growth rate over that period.
In its Annual Energy Outlook 2015, the U.S. Energy Information Administration (EIA) elaborates that industrial energy consumption over the next 25 years will be slightly higher, at 0.7% per year, while annual commercial consumption is expected to be 0.5%.
EIA attributes these consumption reductions to the adoption of energy efficient technologies, as well as “larger structural changes in the economy.” For example, residential consumption has slowed as more people have moved to warmer climates. And policies that have mandated better fuel efficiencies in cars and trucks appear to be having a positive effect.
“These standards, combined with less travel in response to technological and social factors, have reduced transportation energy consumption in recent years and are expected to continue holding transportation consumption nearly flat in the coming decades,” EIA observes.
The department points to several factors that are expected to shape U.S. energy markets in the next generation. These include:
- Growth in U.S. energy production, coupled with only modest increases in domestic demand, will further reduce the country’s reliance on imported energy suppliers. EIA anticipates that energy imports and exports “come into balance” in the U.S. starting in 2028.
- The U.S. will transition from being a modest net importer of natural gas to a net exporter by 2017, with net exports in 2040 ranging from 3 trillion cubic feet (in a low-oil-price scenario) to 13.1 million (in a high oil and gas resource scenario).
- Rising costs for electric power generation, transmission, and distribution, along with slower growth in electricity demand, are expected to lead to an 18% increase in the average retail price of electricity between 2013 and 2040.
- End-user efficiencies are expected to keep energy related carbon dioxide emissions in the U.S. below 2005 levels through 2040.
EIA expects net energy exports to contribute more to the country’s GDP growth than it has in the previous 30 years, partly because of reduced imports. But that impact is also expected to diminish in the later years of this projection cycle, as GDP growth in nations that are U.S. trade partners slows.
Related Stories
M/E/P Systems | Jan 27, 2022
Top 5 building HVAC system problems and how to fix them
When your HVAC system was new, it was designed to keep the indoor environment comfortable, functional, and safe. Over time, that system can drift out of alignment, leading to wasted resources, excessive energy consumption, and reduced occupant comfort.
Sponsored | Steel Buildings | Jan 25, 2022
Structural Game Changer: Winning solution for curved-wall gymnasium design
Sponsored | Steel Buildings | Jan 25, 2022
Multifamily + Hospitality: Benefits of building in long-span composite floor systems
Long-span composite floor systems provide unique advantages in the construction of multi-family and hospitality facilities. This introductory course explains what composite deck is, how it works, what typical composite deck profiles look like and provides guidelines for using composite floor systems. This is a nano unit course.
Urban Planning | Jan 25, 2022
Retooling innovation districts for medium-sized cities
This type of development isn’t just about innovation or lab space; and it’s not just universities or research institutions that are driving this change.
Sponsored | Resiliency | Jan 24, 2022
Norshield Products Fortify Critical NYC Infrastructure
New York City has two very large buildings dedicated to answering the 911 calls of its five boroughs. With more than 11 million emergency calls annually, it makes perfect sense. The second of these buildings, the Public Safety Answering Center II (PSAC II) is located on a nine-acre parcel of land in the Bronx. It’s an imposing 450,000 square-foot structure—a 240-foot-wide by 240-foot-tall cube. The gleaming aluminum cube risesthe equivalent of 24 stories from behind a grassy berm, projecting the unlikely impression that it might actually be floating. Like most visually striking structures, the building has drawn as much scorn as it has admiration.
Sponsored | Resiliency | Jan 24, 2022
Blast Hazard Mitigation: Building Openings for Greater Safety and Security
Coronavirus | Jan 20, 2022
Advances and challenges in improving indoor air quality in commercial buildings
Michael Dreidger, CEO of IAQ tech startup Airsset speaks with BD+C's John Caulfield about how building owners and property managers can improve their buildings' air quality.
Building Owners | Jan 17, 2022
Success from within: Three characteristics of effective owner project planning
Setting realistic expectations for project teams can help owners avoid common pitfalls.
Sponsored | BD+C University Course | Jan 12, 2022
Total steel project performance
This instructor-led video course discusses actual project scenarios where collaborative steel joist and deck design have reduced total-project costs. In an era when incomplete structural drawings are a growing concern for our industry, the course reveals hidden costs and risks that can be avoided.
University Buildings | Jan 11, 2022
Designing for health sciences education: supporting student well-being
While student and faculty health and well-being should be a top priority in all spaces within educational facilities, this article will highlight some key considerations.