Energy consumption in the U.S., which has slowed recently, is projected to inch up by only 0.3% per year through 2040, which would be less than half the projected population growth rate over that period.
In its Annual Energy Outlook 2015, the U.S. Energy Information Administration (EIA) elaborates that industrial energy consumption over the next 25 years will be slightly higher, at 0.7% per year, while annual commercial consumption is expected to be 0.5%.
EIA attributes these consumption reductions to the adoption of energy efficient technologies, as well as “larger structural changes in the economy.” For example, residential consumption has slowed as more people have moved to warmer climates. And policies that have mandated better fuel efficiencies in cars and trucks appear to be having a positive effect.
“These standards, combined with less travel in response to technological and social factors, have reduced transportation energy consumption in recent years and are expected to continue holding transportation consumption nearly flat in the coming decades,” EIA observes.
The department points to several factors that are expected to shape U.S. energy markets in the next generation. These include:
- Growth in U.S. energy production, coupled with only modest increases in domestic demand, will further reduce the country’s reliance on imported energy suppliers. EIA anticipates that energy imports and exports “come into balance” in the U.S. starting in 2028.
- The U.S. will transition from being a modest net importer of natural gas to a net exporter by 2017, with net exports in 2040 ranging from 3 trillion cubic feet (in a low-oil-price scenario) to 13.1 million (in a high oil and gas resource scenario).
- Rising costs for electric power generation, transmission, and distribution, along with slower growth in electricity demand, are expected to lead to an 18% increase in the average retail price of electricity between 2013 and 2040.
- End-user efficiencies are expected to keep energy related carbon dioxide emissions in the U.S. below 2005 levels through 2040.
EIA expects net energy exports to contribute more to the country’s GDP growth than it has in the previous 30 years, partly because of reduced imports. But that impact is also expected to diminish in the later years of this projection cycle, as GDP growth in nations that are U.S. trade partners slows.
Related Stories
Mixed-Use | Apr 7, 2023
New Nashville mixed-use high-rise features curved, stepped massing and wellness focus
Construction recently started on 5 City Blvd, a new 15-story office and mixed-use building in Nashville, Tenn. Located on a uniquely shaped site, the 730,000-sf structure features curved, stepped massing and amenities with a focus on wellness.
Affordable Housing | Apr 7, 2023
Florida’s affordable housing law expected to fuel multifamily residential projects
Florida Gov. Ron DeSantis recently signed into law affordable housing legislation that includes $711 million for housing programs and tax breaks for developers. The new law will supersede local governments’ zoning, density, and height requirements.
Energy Efficiency | Apr 7, 2023
Department of Energy makes $1 billion available for states, local governments to upgrade building codes
The U.S. Department of Energy is offering funding to help state and local governments upgrade their building codes to boost energy efficiency. The funding will support improved building codes that reduce carbon emissions and improve energy efficiency, according to DOE.
Architects | Apr 6, 2023
New tool from Perkins&Will will make public health data more accessible to designers and architects
Called PRECEDE, the dashboard is an open-source tool developed by Perkins&Will that draws on federal data to identify and assess community health priorities within the U.S. by location. The firm was recently awarded a $30,000 ASID Foundation Grant to enhance the tool.
Cladding and Facade Systems | Apr 5, 2023
Façade innovation: University of Stuttgart tests a ‘saturated building skin’ for lessening heat islands
HydroSKIN is a façade made with textiles that stores rainwater and uses it later to cool hot building exteriors. The façade innovation consists of an external, multilayered 3D textile that acts as a water collector and evaporator.
Multifamily Housing | Apr 4, 2023
Acing your multifamily housing amenities for the modern renter
Eighty-seven percent of residents consider amenities when signing or renewing a lease. Here are three essential amenity areas to focus on, according to market research and trends.
Resiliency | Apr 4, 2023
New bill would limit housing sprawl in fire- and flood-prone areas of California
A new bill in the California Assembly would limit housing sprawl in fire- and flood-prone areas across the state. For the last several decades, new housing has spread to more remote areas of the Golden State.
Sustainability | Apr 4, 2023
ASHRAE releases Building Performance Standards Guide
Building Performance Standards (BPS): A Technical Resource Guide was created to provide a technical basis for policymakers, building owners, practitioners and other stakeholders interested in developing and implementing a BPS policy. The publication is the first in a series of seven guidebooks by ASHRAE on building decarbonization.
Sustainability | Apr 4, 2023
NIBS report: Decarbonizing the U.S. building sector will require massive, coordinated effort
Decarbonizing the building sector will require a massive, strategic, and coordinated effort by the public and private sectors, according to a report by the National Institute of Building Sciences (NIBS).
Education Facilities | Apr 3, 2023
Oklahoma’s Francis Tuttle Technology Center opens academic center for affordable education and training
Oklahoma’s Francis Tuttle Technology Center, which provides career-specific training to adults and high school students, has completed its Francis Tuttle Danforth Campus—a two-story, 155,000-sf academic building. The project aims to fill the growing community’s rising demand for affordable education and training.