Energy consumption in the U.S., which has slowed recently, is projected to inch up by only 0.3% per year through 2040, which would be less than half the projected population growth rate over that period.
In its Annual Energy Outlook 2015, the U.S. Energy Information Administration (EIA) elaborates that industrial energy consumption over the next 25 years will be slightly higher, at 0.7% per year, while annual commercial consumption is expected to be 0.5%.
EIA attributes these consumption reductions to the adoption of energy efficient technologies, as well as “larger structural changes in the economy.” For example, residential consumption has slowed as more people have moved to warmer climates. And policies that have mandated better fuel efficiencies in cars and trucks appear to be having a positive effect.
“These standards, combined with less travel in response to technological and social factors, have reduced transportation energy consumption in recent years and are expected to continue holding transportation consumption nearly flat in the coming decades,” EIA observes.
The department points to several factors that are expected to shape U.S. energy markets in the next generation. These include:
- Growth in U.S. energy production, coupled with only modest increases in domestic demand, will further reduce the country’s reliance on imported energy suppliers. EIA anticipates that energy imports and exports “come into balance” in the U.S. starting in 2028.
- The U.S. will transition from being a modest net importer of natural gas to a net exporter by 2017, with net exports in 2040 ranging from 3 trillion cubic feet (in a low-oil-price scenario) to 13.1 million (in a high oil and gas resource scenario).
- Rising costs for electric power generation, transmission, and distribution, along with slower growth in electricity demand, are expected to lead to an 18% increase in the average retail price of electricity between 2013 and 2040.
- End-user efficiencies are expected to keep energy related carbon dioxide emissions in the U.S. below 2005 levels through 2040.
EIA expects net energy exports to contribute more to the country’s GDP growth than it has in the previous 30 years, partly because of reduced imports. But that impact is also expected to diminish in the later years of this projection cycle, as GDP growth in nations that are U.S. trade partners slows.
Related Stories
| May 8, 2012
Study presents snapshot of domestic violence shelter services
Unique partnership of architects and domestic violence advocates brings new strategies for emergency housing.
| May 8, 2012
Gensler & J.C. Anderson team for pro bono high school project in Chicago
City Year representatives came to Gensler for their assistance in the transformation of the organization’s offices within Orr Academy High School, which also serve as an academic and social gathering space for students and corps members.
| May 8, 2012
Skanska USA hires Zamrowski as senior project manager
In his new role at Skanska, Zamrowski will serve as the day-to-day on-site contact for select Pennsylvania-based projects during all phases of construction.
| May 8, 2012
Morgan/Harbour completes three projects at Columbia Centre
Projects completed on behalf of property owner, White Oak Realty Partners, LLC, Pearlmark Realty Partners, LLC and Angelo Gordon & Co.
| May 7, 2012
4 more trends in higher-education facilities
Our series on college buildings continues with a look at new classroom designs, flexible space, collaboration areas, and the evolving role of the university library.
| May 7, 2012
Best AEC Firms: MHTN Architects nine decades of dedication to Utah
This 65-person design firm has served Salt Lake City and the state of Utah for the better part of 90 years.
| May 7, 2012
2012 BUILDING TEAM AWARDS: TD Ameritrade Park
The new stadium for the College World Series in Omaha combines big-league amenities within a traditional minor league atmosphere.
| May 7, 2012
2012 BUILDING TEAM AWARDS: Fort Belvoir Community Hospital
A new military hospital invokes evidence-based design to create a LEED-certified facility for the nation’s soldiers and their families.
| May 7, 2012
2012 BUILDING TEAM AWARDS: Audie L. Murphy VA Hospital
How a Building Team created a high-tech rehabilitation center for wounded veterans of the conflicts in Iraq and Afghanistan.