Energy consumption in the U.S., which has slowed recently, is projected to inch up by only 0.3% per year through 2040, which would be less than half the projected population growth rate over that period.
In its Annual Energy Outlook 2015, the U.S. Energy Information Administration (EIA) elaborates that industrial energy consumption over the next 25 years will be slightly higher, at 0.7% per year, while annual commercial consumption is expected to be 0.5%.
EIA attributes these consumption reductions to the adoption of energy efficient technologies, as well as “larger structural changes in the economy.” For example, residential consumption has slowed as more people have moved to warmer climates. And policies that have mandated better fuel efficiencies in cars and trucks appear to be having a positive effect.
“These standards, combined with less travel in response to technological and social factors, have reduced transportation energy consumption in recent years and are expected to continue holding transportation consumption nearly flat in the coming decades,” EIA observes.
The department points to several factors that are expected to shape U.S. energy markets in the next generation. These include:
- Growth in U.S. energy production, coupled with only modest increases in domestic demand, will further reduce the country’s reliance on imported energy suppliers. EIA anticipates that energy imports and exports “come into balance” in the U.S. starting in 2028.
- The U.S. will transition from being a modest net importer of natural gas to a net exporter by 2017, with net exports in 2040 ranging from 3 trillion cubic feet (in a low-oil-price scenario) to 13.1 million (in a high oil and gas resource scenario).
- Rising costs for electric power generation, transmission, and distribution, along with slower growth in electricity demand, are expected to lead to an 18% increase in the average retail price of electricity between 2013 and 2040.
- End-user efficiencies are expected to keep energy related carbon dioxide emissions in the U.S. below 2005 levels through 2040.
EIA expects net energy exports to contribute more to the country’s GDP growth than it has in the previous 30 years, partly because of reduced imports. But that impact is also expected to diminish in the later years of this projection cycle, as GDP growth in nations that are U.S. trade partners slows.
Related Stories
Green | Aug 7, 2023
Rooftop photovoltaic panels credited with propelling solar energy output to record high
Solar provided a record-high 7.3% of U.S. electrical generation in May, “driven in large part by growth in ‘estimated’ small-scale (e.g., rooftop) solar PV whose output increased by 25.6% and accounted for nearly a third (31.9%) of total solar production,” according to a report by the U.S. Energy Information Administration.
Resiliency | Aug 7, 2023
Creative ways cities are seeking to beat urban heat gain
As temperatures in many areas hit record highs this summer, cities around the world are turning to creative solutions to cope with the heat. Here are several creative ways cities are seeking to beat urban heat gain.
Government Buildings | Aug 7, 2023
Nearly $1 billion earmarked for energy efficiency upgrades to federal buildings
The U.S. General Services Administration (GSA) recently announced plans to use $975 million in Inflation Reduction Act funding for energy efficiency and clean energy upgrades to federal buildings across the country. The investment will impact about 40 million sf, or about 20% of GSA’s federal buildings portfolio.
Government Buildings | Aug 2, 2023
A historic courthouse in Charlotte is updated and expanded by Robert A.M. Stern Architects
Robert A.M. Stern Architects’ design retains the original building’s look and presence.
Hotel Facilities | Aug 2, 2023
Top 5 markets for hotel construction
According to the United States Construction Pipeline Trend Report by Lodging Econometrics (LE) for Q2 2023, the five markets with the largest hotel construction pipelines are Dallas with a record-high 184 projects/21,501 rooms, Atlanta with 141 projects/17,993 rooms, Phoenix with 119 projects/16,107 rooms, Nashville with 116 projects/15,346 rooms, and Los Angeles with 112 projects/17,797 rooms.
Market Data | Aug 1, 2023
Nonresidential construction spending increases slightly in June
National nonresidential construction spending increased 0.1% in June, according to an Associated Builders and Contractors analysis of data published today by the U.S. Census Bureau. Spending is up 18% over the past 12 months. On a seasonally adjusted annualized basis, nonresidential spending totaled $1.07 trillion in June.
Healthcare Facilities | Aug 1, 2023
Top 10 healthcare design projects for 2023
The HKS-designed Allegheny Health Network Wexford (Pa.) Hospital and Flad Architects' Sarasota Memorial Hospital - Venice (Fla.) highlight 10 projects to win 2023 Healthcare Design Awards from the American Institute of Architects Academy of Architecture for Health.
Office Buildings | Aug 1, 2023
Creating a nurturing environment: The value of a mother’s room in the workplace
Since becoming an architect, Rebecca Martin of Design Collaborative has drawn a mother’s room into numerous projects. But it wasn't until she became a mom that she fully appreciated their importance in the workspace.
Digital Twin | Jul 31, 2023
Creating the foundation for a Digital Twin
Aligning the BIM model with the owner’s asset management system is the crucial first step in creating a Digital Twin. By following these guidelines, organizations can harness the power of Digital Twins to optimize facility management, maintenance planning, and decision-making throughout the building’s lifecycle.
K-12 Schools | Jul 31, 2023
Austin’s new Rosedale School serves students with special needs aged 3 to 22
In Austin, the Rosedale School has opened for students with special needs aged 3 to 22. The new facility features sensory rooms, fully accessible playgrounds and gardens, community meeting spaces, and an on-site clinic. The school serves 100 learners with special needs from across Austin Independent School District (ISD).