Energy consumption in the U.S., which has slowed recently, is projected to inch up by only 0.3% per year through 2040, which would be less than half the projected population growth rate over that period.
In its Annual Energy Outlook 2015, the U.S. Energy Information Administration (EIA) elaborates that industrial energy consumption over the next 25 years will be slightly higher, at 0.7% per year, while annual commercial consumption is expected to be 0.5%.
EIA attributes these consumption reductions to the adoption of energy efficient technologies, as well as “larger structural changes in the economy.” For example, residential consumption has slowed as more people have moved to warmer climates. And policies that have mandated better fuel efficiencies in cars and trucks appear to be having a positive effect.
“These standards, combined with less travel in response to technological and social factors, have reduced transportation energy consumption in recent years and are expected to continue holding transportation consumption nearly flat in the coming decades,” EIA observes.
The department points to several factors that are expected to shape U.S. energy markets in the next generation. These include:
- Growth in U.S. energy production, coupled with only modest increases in domestic demand, will further reduce the country’s reliance on imported energy suppliers. EIA anticipates that energy imports and exports “come into balance” in the U.S. starting in 2028.
- The U.S. will transition from being a modest net importer of natural gas to a net exporter by 2017, with net exports in 2040 ranging from 3 trillion cubic feet (in a low-oil-price scenario) to 13.1 million (in a high oil and gas resource scenario).
- Rising costs for electric power generation, transmission, and distribution, along with slower growth in electricity demand, are expected to lead to an 18% increase in the average retail price of electricity between 2013 and 2040.
- End-user efficiencies are expected to keep energy related carbon dioxide emissions in the U.S. below 2005 levels through 2040.
EIA expects net energy exports to contribute more to the country’s GDP growth than it has in the previous 30 years, partly because of reduced imports. But that impact is also expected to diminish in the later years of this projection cycle, as GDP growth in nations that are U.S. trade partners slows.
Related Stories
| Dec 4, 2012
Thornton Tomasetti opens new office in São Paulo, Brazil
The move to São Paulo is strategic and timely, as the country continues preparations for the 2014 World Cup and 2016 Olympic Games in Rio de Janeiro.
| Dec 4, 2012
Greenhorne & O’Mara signs letter of intent to join Stantec
Acquisitions of C3TS and Architecture 2000 also completed.
| Dec 4, 2012
Sto Corp. announces new distributor in the Carolinas
Company will now have coverage in several parts of North Carolina.
| Dec 4, 2012
Wirtz Beverage Illinois’ corporate headquarters completed
WBI Center, a new state-of-the-art facility, is designed by Ware Malcomb.
| Dec 4, 2012
City of Gainesville to break ground on $33 million bus fleet maintenance and ops facility
The 140,000-sf facility will include dispatch, administrative and maintenance facilities.
| Nov 28, 2012
Project team to showcase design for first mixed-use retail center of its kind in Mexico City
Project reaching construction milestone, offering national model for urban development in Mexico.
| Nov 28, 2012
Cummins announces ratings classification for data center power systems
The Data Center Continuous ratings span the range of Cummins Power Generation’s high horsepower diesel generator sets, from 1 MW up to 2.5 MW, and will apply to both 50 Hz and 60 Hz configurations.
| Nov 28, 2012
Francis Cauffman appoints Stainbrook Director of Higher Education
Stainbrook has 16 years of experience as a strategic planner and urban designer working on complex projects on- and off-campus.
| Nov 27, 2012
SFIA releases technical guide for cold-formed steel framing products
The 114-page book covers both structural and non-structural applications, including section properties of SFIA member product profiles, and complete load and span tables for most applications.
| Nov 21, 2012
Architecture Billings Index positive for third straight month
All regions reporting positive business conditions