More than 10 years after the end of the most severe financial crisis since the Great Depression, the U.S. economy is again making history by continuing its longest-ever expansion. Nevertheless, emerging weakness in business investment has been hinting at softening outlays, giving commercial and industrial construction contractors cause for concern, according to a mid-year economic outlook by Anirban Basu, chief economist of Associated Builders and Contractors.
“Given that every expansion in U.S. history has ended in recession, leaders of construction firms are rightly wondering when the record-setting expansion will end,” said Basu. “Looking at conditions on the ground, it likely won’t be in 2019, but 2020 could be problematic for the broader economy and 2021 for a significant number of contractors.”
Basu cites numerous vulnerabilities that could trigger a recession in 2020, including:
— Trade wars
— Softening corporate earnings
— Slowing job growth
— Elevated levels of household, corporate and government debt
— Election 2020
But there are plenty of reasons to remain optimistic. “For the most part, the economy has held up better than anticipated,” said Basu. “During the first quarter of 2019, gross domestic product expanded at a smart 3.1% annualized rate. The U.S. Bureau of Economic Analysis’ initial estimate suggests that the economy slowed to 2.1% growth during the second quarter, but that neatly beat economists’ expectation that that growth had fallen below 2%.”
“The economy could continue to prove resilient,” says Basu. “To date, the economy has navigated ongoing trade disputes and associated tariffs with aplomb. It has also withstood serial interest rate hikes, the longest federal government shutdown in history, extreme weather, shifting immigration policy, ongoing labor market shortages and a lengthy investigation regarding foreign influence in U.S. elections.”
To read the full economic outlook story, visit ConstructionExec.com.
Related Stories
Market Data | Jun 26, 2020
5 must reads for the AEC industry today: June 26, 2020
Restoration of 1930s El Paso hotel completes and Arc offers tools, analytics for safe workplace re-entry.
Market Data | Jun 25, 2020
Commercial Construction Index drops amid Coronavirus pandemic, but contractors poised for near-term recovery
Contractors quickly prioritized worker health and safety, and 1 in 3 plan to hire more workers in the next 6 months.
Market Data | Jun 25, 2020
7 must reads for the AEC industry today: June 25, 2020
CDC to build the most advanced high containment laboratory in the country and architecture billings downward trajectory moderates.
Market Data | Jun 24, 2020
Architecture billings downward trajectory moderates
AIA’s Architecture Billings Index (ABI) score for May was 32.0 compared to 29.5 in April, but still represents a significant decrease in services provided by U.S. architecture firms.
Market Data | Jun 24, 2020
8 must reads for the AEC industry today: June 24, 2020
San Francisco's apartment market goes in reverse and WATG designs a solution for isolating without sacrificing social connectivity.
Market Data | Jun 23, 2020
National survey reveals pandemic's impact on college students' mental health, remote learning, families' income and more
Of 2,500 student respondents, 75% feel more anxious or stressed, 57% said they lost their summer jobs and 90% want to return to campus in the fall.
Market Data | Jun 23, 2020
7 must reads for the AEC industry today: June 23, 2020
Gyms are going bacnkrupt and leaving gaps in shopping centers and how hotels are trying to keep guests and employees safe.
Market Data | Jun 22, 2020
New House infrastructure package will provide needed investments in aging infrastructure, support economic recovery, and create jobs
The Moving Forward Act’s proposed $1.5 trillion in new investments will improve range of public infrastructure, creating needed demand for construction while making the economy more efficient.
Market Data | Jun 22, 2020
7 must reads for the AEC industry today: June 22, 2020
Construction employment rises from April to May in 45 states and the first building in the U.S. designed for post COVID-19 environment.
Market Data | Jun 22, 2020
Construction employment rises from April to May in 45 states, slips in 5
Rebound from April job losses reflects one-shot help from paycheck protection program loans and easing of stay-at-home orders, but cancellations and state and local deficits imply further cuts ahead.
