More than 10 years after the end of the most severe financial crisis since the Great Depression, the U.S. economy is again making history by continuing its longest-ever expansion. Nevertheless, emerging weakness in business investment has been hinting at softening outlays, giving commercial and industrial construction contractors cause for concern, according to a mid-year economic outlook by Anirban Basu, chief economist of Associated Builders and Contractors.
“Given that every expansion in U.S. history has ended in recession, leaders of construction firms are rightly wondering when the record-setting expansion will end,” said Basu. “Looking at conditions on the ground, it likely won’t be in 2019, but 2020 could be problematic for the broader economy and 2021 for a significant number of contractors.”
Basu cites numerous vulnerabilities that could trigger a recession in 2020, including:
— Trade wars
— Softening corporate earnings
— Slowing job growth
— Elevated levels of household, corporate and government debt
— Election 2020
But there are plenty of reasons to remain optimistic. “For the most part, the economy has held up better than anticipated,” said Basu. “During the first quarter of 2019, gross domestic product expanded at a smart 3.1% annualized rate. The U.S. Bureau of Economic Analysis’ initial estimate suggests that the economy slowed to 2.1% growth during the second quarter, but that neatly beat economists’ expectation that that growth had fallen below 2%.”
“The economy could continue to prove resilient,” says Basu. “To date, the economy has navigated ongoing trade disputes and associated tariffs with aplomb. It has also withstood serial interest rate hikes, the longest federal government shutdown in history, extreme weather, shifting immigration policy, ongoing labor market shortages and a lengthy investigation regarding foreign influence in U.S. elections.”
To read the full economic outlook story, visit ConstructionExec.com.
Related Stories
Market Data | Dec 3, 2020
Only 30% of metro areas add construction jobs in latest 12 months
Widespread project postponements and cancellations force layoffs.
Market Data | Dec 2, 2020
New Passive House standards offers prescriptive path that reduces costs
Eliminates requirement for a Passive House consultant and attendant modeling.
Market Data | Dec 2, 2020
Nonresidential construction spending remains flat in October
Residential construction expands as many commercial projects languish.
Market Data | Nov 30, 2020
New FEMA study projects implementing I-Codes could save $600 billion by 2060
International Code Council and FLASH celebrate the most comprehensive study conducted around hazard-resilient building codes to-date.
Market Data | Nov 23, 2020
Construction employment is down in three-fourths of states since February
This news comes even after 36 states added construction jobs in October.
Market Data | Nov 18, 2020
Architecture billings remained stalled in October
The pace of decline during October remained at about the same level as in September.
Market Data | Nov 17, 2020
Architects face data, culture gaps in fighting climate change
New study outlines how building product manufacturers can best support architects in climate action.
Market Data | Nov 10, 2020
Construction association ready to work with president-elect Biden to prepare significant new infrastructure and recovery measures
Incoming president and congress should focus on enacting measures to rebuild infrastructure and revive the economy.
Market Data | Nov 9, 2020
Construction sector adds 84,000 workers in October
A growing number of project cancellations risks undermining future industry job gains.
Market Data | Nov 4, 2020
Drop in nonresidential construction offsets most residential spending gains as growing number of contractors report cancelled projects
Association officials warn that demand for nonresidential construction will slide further without new federal relief measures.