By 2025, there could be 65.2 million people in the U.S. aged 65 years old and up, compared to 47.7 million in 2015. That increase would be exponentially higher by percentage than the growth for Americans under 64, and would put seniors ever closer to 20% of the country’s total population.
The National Center for Health Statistics estimates that the number of annual primary care office visits for seniors is now more than 90 per 100 people, versus around 70 per 100 people for the next closest age group, under 15 years olds. As seniors multiply, so will the need for healthcare and, potentially, medical office space.
A new report from Transwestern estimates that over 150,000 healthcare practitioners could be added to the economy over the next two years. Therefore, the total demand for medical office space in the U.S. for physical, clinical, mental, and dental services could range anywhere from 150.5 million sf to 225.8 million sf, as per estimates by MedSpace.
As of the second quarter of 2018, there were 110 million sf of existing or under-construction medical office space in the U.S. An example of new projects is the $25.3 million, 52,704-sf, three-story OSF HealthCare medical office building that recently broke ground in Bloomington, Ill.
These numbers, though, indicate that there could be a serious shortfall in office availability going forward. “Absorption of this demand is impossible,” states the report’s author, Elizabeth Norton, Transwestern’s Managing Research Director, Mid-Atlantic Region.
Without a major shift in how healthcare is delivered, the country’s most populous areas—and especially New York, Dallas-Fort Worth, Atlanta, Denver, and Miami-Fort Lauderdale—would have serious difficulties accommodating practitioners wishing to serve patients from a medical office, even at the low end of the projected growth range.
The country, and particularly its largest metros, are facing a serious shortage in available medical office space. Image: Transwestern
There are alternatives, suggests Norton, such as leasing in conventional office buildings where there’s ample space available. Repurposing empty retail spaces for medical use is another.
Norton also points to the emergence of new forms of healthcare, such as telemedicine, digital health, and shared service centers, as options that “could suppress future demand to some degree,” albeit depending on how quickly these nascent approaches catch on within the healthcare sector.
Earlier this year, the marketing intelligence firm Transparency Market Research estimated in a report that the so-called telehealth market in the U.S. would expand by nearly 15% to $2.8 billion by 2025. “North America and Europe are projected to dominate the global telehealth market … driven by government incentives …, technological advancements, and efforts of key players to expand their market presence,” the report stated.
Transparency Market Research has also estimated that a more robust digital health market in North America could expand by 13.4% annually to $80 billion by 2025.
Related Stories
| Nov 14, 2013
Behind the build: BD+C's 'Pedia-Pod' modular pediatric patient unit at Greenbuild 2013 [slideshow]
Next week at Greenbuild, BD+C will unveil its demonstration pediatric patient unit, called Pedia-Pod. Here's a behind-the-scenes look at the construction of this unique modular structure.
| Nov 13, 2013
Installed capacity of geothermal heat pumps to grow by 150% by 2020, says study
The worldwide installed capacity of GHP systems will reach 127.4 gigawatts-thermal over the next seven years, growth of nearly 150%, according to a recent report from Navigant Research.
| Nov 8, 2013
Oversized healthcare: How did we get here and how do we right-size?
Healthcare facilities, especially our nation's hospitals, have steadily become larger over the past couple of decades. The growth has occurred despite stabilization, and in some markets, a decline in inpatient utilization.
| Nov 1, 2013
CBRE Group enhances healthcare platform with acquisition of KLMK Group
CBRE Group, Inc. (NYSE:CBG) today announced that it has acquired KLMK Group, a leading provider of facility consulting, project advisory and facility activation solutions to the healthcare industry.
| Oct 30, 2013
15 stellar historic preservation, adaptive reuse, and renovation projects
The winners of the 2013 Reconstruction Awards showcase the best work of distinguished Building Teams, encompassing historic preservation, adaptive reuse, and renovations and additions.
| Oct 30, 2013
11 hot BIM/VDC topics for 2013
If you like to geek out on building information modeling and virtual design and construction, you should enjoy this overview of the top BIM/VDC topics.
| Oct 28, 2013
Urban growth doesn’t have to destroy nature—it can work with it
Our collective desire to live in cities has never been stronger. According to the World Health Organization, 60% of the world’s population will live in a city by 2030. As urban populations swell, what people demand from their cities is evolving.
| Oct 18, 2013
Meet the winners of BD+C's $5,000 Vision U40 Competition
Fifteen teams competed last week in the first annual Vision U40 Competition at BD+C's Under 40 Leadership Summit in San Francisco. Here are the five winning teams, including the $3,000 grand prize honorees.
| Oct 18, 2013
Researchers discover tension-fusing properties of metal
When a group of MIT researchers recently discovered that stress can cause metal alloy to fuse rather than break apart, they assumed it must be a mistake. It wasn't. The surprising finding could lead to self-healing materials that repair early damage before it has a chance to spread.
| Oct 14, 2013
The next level of Lean process for healthcare
Most hospitals have begun the Lean process improvement stage to eliminate waste, reduce travel distances, and minimize inventory, with varying levels of success. Here are three keys to creating a prosperous Lean program.
