By 2025, there could be 65.2 million people in the U.S. aged 65 years old and up, compared to 47.7 million in 2015. That increase would be exponentially higher by percentage than the growth for Americans under 64, and would put seniors ever closer to 20% of the country’s total population.
The National Center for Health Statistics estimates that the number of annual primary care office visits for seniors is now more than 90 per 100 people, versus around 70 per 100 people for the next closest age group, under 15 years olds. As seniors multiply, so will the need for healthcare and, potentially, medical office space.
A new report from Transwestern estimates that over 150,000 healthcare practitioners could be added to the economy over the next two years. Therefore, the total demand for medical office space in the U.S. for physical, clinical, mental, and dental services could range anywhere from 150.5 million sf to 225.8 million sf, as per estimates by MedSpace.
As of the second quarter of 2018, there were 110 million sf of existing or under-construction medical office space in the U.S. An example of new projects is the $25.3 million, 52,704-sf, three-story OSF HealthCare medical office building that recently broke ground in Bloomington, Ill.
These numbers, though, indicate that there could be a serious shortfall in office availability going forward. “Absorption of this demand is impossible,” states the report’s author, Elizabeth Norton, Transwestern’s Managing Research Director, Mid-Atlantic Region.
Without a major shift in how healthcare is delivered, the country’s most populous areas—and especially New York, Dallas-Fort Worth, Atlanta, Denver, and Miami-Fort Lauderdale—would have serious difficulties accommodating practitioners wishing to serve patients from a medical office, even at the low end of the projected growth range.
The country, and particularly its largest metros, are facing a serious shortage in available medical office space. Image: Transwestern
There are alternatives, suggests Norton, such as leasing in conventional office buildings where there’s ample space available. Repurposing empty retail spaces for medical use is another.
Norton also points to the emergence of new forms of healthcare, such as telemedicine, digital health, and shared service centers, as options that “could suppress future demand to some degree,” albeit depending on how quickly these nascent approaches catch on within the healthcare sector.
Earlier this year, the marketing intelligence firm Transparency Market Research estimated in a report that the so-called telehealth market in the U.S. would expand by nearly 15% to $2.8 billion by 2025. “North America and Europe are projected to dominate the global telehealth market … driven by government incentives …, technological advancements, and efforts of key players to expand their market presence,” the report stated.
Transparency Market Research has also estimated that a more robust digital health market in North America could expand by 13.4% annually to $80 billion by 2025.
Related Stories
| Dec 17, 2013
IBM's five tech-driven innovation predictions for the next five years [infographics]
Smart classrooms, DNA-based medical care, and wired cities are among the technology-related innovations identified by IBM researchers for the company's 5 in 5 report.
| Dec 17, 2013
CBRE's Chris Bodnar and Lee Asher named Healthcare Real Estate Executives of the Year
CBRE Group, Inc. announced today that two of its senior executives, Chris Bodnar and Lee Asher, have been named Healthcare Real Estate Executives of the Year by Healthcare Real Estate Insights.
| Dec 13, 2013
Safe and sound: 10 solutions for fire and life safety
From a dual fire-CO detector to an aspiration-sensing fire alarm, BD+C editors present a roundup of new fire and life safety products and technologies.
| Dec 10, 2013
16 great solutions for architects, engineers, and contractors
From a crowd-funded smart shovel to a why-didn’t-someone-do-this-sooner scheme for managing traffic in public restrooms, these ideas are noteworthy for creative problem-solving. Here are some of the most intriguing innovations the BD+C community has brought to our attention this year.
| Dec 10, 2013
Modular Pedia-Pod: Sustainability in healthcare construction [slideshow]
Greenbuild 2013 in Philadelphia was the site of a unique display—Pedia-Pod, a modular pediatric treatment room designed and built by NRB, in collaboration with the editors of Building Design+Construction, SGC Horizon LLC, and their team of medical design consultants.
| Dec 3, 2013
Creating a healthcare capital project plan: The truth behind the numbers
When setting up a capital project plan, it's one thing to have the data, but quite another to have the knowledge of the process.
| Nov 27, 2013
Pediatric hospitals improve care with flexible, age-sensitive design
Pediatric hospitals face many of the same concerns as their adult counterparts. Inpatient bed demand is declining, outpatient visits are soaring, and there is a higher level of focus on prevention and reduced readmissions.
| Nov 27, 2013
Exclusive survey: Revenues increased at nearly half of AEC firms in 2013
Forty-six percent of the respondents to an exclusive BD+C survey of AEC professionals reported that revenues had increased this year compared to 2012, with another 24.2% saying cash flow had stayed the same.
| Nov 27, 2013
Wonder walls: 13 choices for the building envelope
BD+C editors present a roundup of the latest technologies and applications in exterior wall systems, from a tapered metal wall installation in Oklahoma to a textured precast concrete solution in North Carolina.
| Nov 27, 2013
LEED for Healthcare offers new paths to green
LEED for Healthcare debuted in spring 2011, and certifications are now beginning to roll in. They include the new Puyallup (Wash.) Medical Center and the W.H. and Elaine McCarty South Tower at Dell Children’s Medical Center of Central Texas in Austin.