This year's unusually difficult winter took its toll on construction activity. Nonetheless, first quarter spending for all the major groups was up compared to the same period in 2013.
The U.S. Census Bureau reported that total construction spending advanced 0.2% in March to $942.5 billion at a seasonally adjusted annual rate (SAAR). First quarter not seasonally adjusted (NSA) spending was 8.3% higher than the same period a year ago.
Nonresidential building construction spending fell for the fifth month in a row, down 1.0% to $298.8 billion (SAAR) in March. January and February spending were revised down by $3.3 billion and $6.4 billion, respectively, which was 1.1% and 2.1% of their respective previously reported numbers. That altered the monthly percentage change for January from +0.1% to ?0.9%. Despite the recent declines, first quarter NSA spending was 3.5% higher than in 2013.
Heavy engineering (non-building) construction spending increased 0.8% to $269.2 billion (SAAR) in March. January and February spending were revised down by $2.5 billion and $5.3 billion, respectively, which was 0.9% and 2.0% of their respective previously reported numbers. First quarter NSA spending was 4.5% higher than a year ago.
Total residential construction spending, which includes improvements, rose 0.7% in to $374.5 billion (SAAR) after inching up 0.1% in February. New residential construction spending, which excludes improvements, also increased 0.7% to $229.1 billion in March, its 30th consecutive monthly increase. First quarter NSA total residential construction spending was 16.0% higher than last year and new residential construction was 17.9% higher.
March private construction spending bounced back from February's 0.2% dip at a seasonally adjusted (SA) rate, increasing 0.5%. First quarter NSA spending was 12.5% higher than 2013 first quarter spending.
Meanwhile, public construction spending fell for the fifth consecutive month, down 0.6% in March. First quarter NSA public spending was 2.0% lower than a year ago.
The Economy
The economic data continue to indicate that the country is recovering from the harsh winter. At this point, the construction spending data are only available through March. We know that the bad weather across much of the nation extended into April and May. Thus we do not look for a quick rebound in the numbers, but continued slow improvement.
We do believe that economic activity is shaking off the winter blues and will continue to post better numbers. Employment growth is key, both as an indicator of how fast the economy is expanding and as a stimulus to further growth as newly hired workers spend their new income.
The Federal Reserve continues to ratchet down its monthly purchases of long-term assets. At the end of April, the Fed announced it would reduce its purchases of long-term assets from $55 billion per month to $45 billion per month starting in May. Prior to January, when the reduction in purchases began, the Fed was buying $85 billion of long-term assets per month. To date, the Fed's actions have led to only a relatively small increase in long-term interest rates.
Risks to the economy and construction remain. These include:
- A sustained spike in interest rates due to the Federal Reserve unwinding its asset purchase program too rapidly
- Sharp reduction in government spending in the short run
- Sovereign debt default by one or more European governments
- One or more European governments abandon the euro
- A sudden, significant increase in oil prices for a prolonged period
The probability of any one of these occurring is fairly low. Nonetheless they remain a potential negative for the economy and construction.
Two other issues will become important issues in the coming months. First, September 30 marks the end of the current federal fiscal year. At that point, appropriations for most government operations and programs expire. The appropriate action would be to have the necessary appropriation bills for the next fiscal year passed and signed into law prior to October 1. This is not a given. Appropriations for the current fiscal year did not become law until the middle of January 2014.
Second, the suspension of the debt ceiling expires in March. Prior to that, a new debt ceiling needs to be passed, the debt ceiling suspension needs to be extended, or—best of all worlds, but extremely unlikely—the debt ceiling needs to be eliminated.
Failure to deal with these issues in a timely manner will create additional uncertainty for business and the economy with negative fallout for investment and construction.
The Forecast
The Reed forecast assumes that, despite these risks, the economy grows at a moderate pace this year and next. Further, nonresidential building construction, which has been struggling of late, is forecast to gain traction and improve this year and next.
Heavy engineering (non-building) construction activity, which has shown some strength of late, is forecast to expand this year and next. Federal funding for infrastructure projects is expected to increase this year and beyond, although not by nearly the amount that is necessary to properly address the nation's aging infrastructure. The amount of funding available for public projects will greatly affect the level of infrastructure construction activity. Public-private partnerships at the state and local level will boost the amount of money available for infrastructure projects.
Total construction spending is forecast to increase 9.0% in 2014 and 11.3% in 2015, with nonresidential and heavy engineering construction gaining strength and residential construction continuing its expand.
For more from this report, including charts, click here.
Related Stories
| Nov 10, 2010
$700 million plan to restore the National Mall
The National Mall—known as America’s front yard—is being targeted for a massive rehab and restoration that could cost as much as $700 million (it’s estimated that the Mall has $400 million in deferred maintenance alone). A few of the proposed projects: refurbishing the Grant Memorial, replacing the Capitol Reflecting Pool with a smaller pool or fountain, reconstructing the Constitution Gardens lake and constructing a multipurpose visitor center, and replacing the Sylvan Theater near the Washington Monument with a new multipurpose facility.
| Nov 9, 2010
Just how green is that college campus?
The College Sustainability Report Card 2011 evaluated colleges and universities in the U.S. and Canada with the 300 largest endowments—plus 22 others that asked to be included in the GreenReportCard.org study—on nine categories, including climate change, energy use, green building, and investment priorities. More than half (56%) earned a B or better, but 6% got a D. Can you guess which is the greenest of these: UC San Diego, Dickinson College, University of Calgary, and Dartmouth? Hint: The Red Devil has turned green.
| Nov 9, 2010
12 incredible objects being made with 3D printers today
BD+C has reported on how 3D printers are attracting the attention of AEC firms. Now you can see how other creative types are utilizing this fascinating printing technology. Among the printed items: King Tut’s remains, designer shoes, and the world’s smallest Rubik’s Cube.
| Nov 9, 2010
U.S. Army steps up requirements for greening building
Cool roofs, solar water heating, and advanced metering are among energy-efficiency elements that will have to be used in new permanent Army buildings in the U.S. and abroad starting in FY 2013. Designs for new construction and major renovations will incorporate sustainable design and development principles contained in ASHRAE 189.1.
| Nov 9, 2010
Designing a library? Don’t focus on books
How do you design a library when print books are no longer its core business? Turn them into massive study halls. That’s what designers did at the University of Amsterdam, where they transformed the existing 27,000-sf library into a study center—without any visible books. About 2,000 students visit the facility daily and encounter workspaces instead of stacks.
| Nov 9, 2010
Turner Construction report: Green buildings still on the agenda
Green buildings continue to be on the agenda for real estate owners, developers, and corporate owner-occupants, according to the Turner 2010 Green Building Market Barometer. Key findings: Almost 90% of respondents said it was extremely or very likely they would incorporate energy-efficiency improvements in their new construction or renovation project, and 60% expected to incorporate improvements to water efficiency, indoor environmental quality, and green materials.
| Nov 5, 2010
New Millennium’s Gary Heasley on BIM, LEED, and the nonresidential market
Gary Heasley, president of New Millennium Building Systems, Fort Wayne, Ind., and EVP of its parent company, Steel Dynamics, Inc., tells BD+C’s Robert Cassidy about the Steel Joist Manufacturer’s westward expansion, its push to create BIM tools for its products, LEED, and the outlook for the nonresidential construction market.
| Nov 3, 2010
First of three green labs opens at Iowa State University
Designed by ZGF Architects, in association with OPN Architects, the Biorenewable Research Laboratory on the Ames campus of Iowa State University is the first of three projects completed as part of the school’s Biorenewables Complex. The 71,800-sf LEED Gold project is one of three wings that will make up the 210,000-sf complex.
| Nov 3, 2010
Park’s green education center a lesson in sustainability
The new Cantigny Outdoor Education Center, located within the 500-acre Cantigny Park in Wheaton, Ill., earned LEED Silver. Designed by DLA Architects, the 3,100-sf multipurpose center will serve patrons of the park’s golf courses, museums, and display garden, one of the largest such gardens in the Midwest.
| Nov 3, 2010
Public works complex gets eco-friendly addition
The renovation and expansion of the public works operations facility in Wilmette, Ill., including a 5,000-sf addition that houses administrative and engineering offices, locker rooms, and a lunch room/meeting room, is seeking LEED Gold certification.