This year's unusually difficult winter took its toll on construction activity. Nonetheless, first quarter spending for all the major groups was up compared to the same period in 2013.
The U.S. Census Bureau reported that total construction spending advanced 0.2% in March to $942.5 billion at a seasonally adjusted annual rate (SAAR). First quarter not seasonally adjusted (NSA) spending was 8.3% higher than the same period a year ago.
Nonresidential building construction spending fell for the fifth month in a row, down 1.0% to $298.8 billion (SAAR) in March. January and February spending were revised down by $3.3 billion and $6.4 billion, respectively, which was 1.1% and 2.1% of their respective previously reported numbers. That altered the monthly percentage change for January from +0.1% to ?0.9%. Despite the recent declines, first quarter NSA spending was 3.5% higher than in 2013.
Heavy engineering (non-building) construction spending increased 0.8% to $269.2 billion (SAAR) in March. January and February spending were revised down by $2.5 billion and $5.3 billion, respectively, which was 0.9% and 2.0% of their respective previously reported numbers. First quarter NSA spending was 4.5% higher than a year ago.
Total residential construction spending, which includes improvements, rose 0.7% in to $374.5 billion (SAAR) after inching up 0.1% in February. New residential construction spending, which excludes improvements, also increased 0.7% to $229.1 billion in March, its 30th consecutive monthly increase. First quarter NSA total residential construction spending was 16.0% higher than last year and new residential construction was 17.9% higher.
March private construction spending bounced back from February's 0.2% dip at a seasonally adjusted (SA) rate, increasing 0.5%. First quarter NSA spending was 12.5% higher than 2013 first quarter spending.
Meanwhile, public construction spending fell for the fifth consecutive month, down 0.6% in March. First quarter NSA public spending was 2.0% lower than a year ago.
The Economy
The economic data continue to indicate that the country is recovering from the harsh winter. At this point, the construction spending data are only available through March. We know that the bad weather across much of the nation extended into April and May. Thus we do not look for a quick rebound in the numbers, but continued slow improvement.
We do believe that economic activity is shaking off the winter blues and will continue to post better numbers. Employment growth is key, both as an indicator of how fast the economy is expanding and as a stimulus to further growth as newly hired workers spend their new income.
The Federal Reserve continues to ratchet down its monthly purchases of long-term assets. At the end of April, the Fed announced it would reduce its purchases of long-term assets from $55 billion per month to $45 billion per month starting in May. Prior to January, when the reduction in purchases began, the Fed was buying $85 billion of long-term assets per month. To date, the Fed's actions have led to only a relatively small increase in long-term interest rates.
Risks to the economy and construction remain. These include:
- A sustained spike in interest rates due to the Federal Reserve unwinding its asset purchase program too rapidly
- Sharp reduction in government spending in the short run
- Sovereign debt default by one or more European governments
- One or more European governments abandon the euro
- A sudden, significant increase in oil prices for a prolonged period
The probability of any one of these occurring is fairly low. Nonetheless they remain a potential negative for the economy and construction.
Two other issues will become important issues in the coming months. First, September 30 marks the end of the current federal fiscal year. At that point, appropriations for most government operations and programs expire. The appropriate action would be to have the necessary appropriation bills for the next fiscal year passed and signed into law prior to October 1. This is not a given. Appropriations for the current fiscal year did not become law until the middle of January 2014.
Second, the suspension of the debt ceiling expires in March. Prior to that, a new debt ceiling needs to be passed, the debt ceiling suspension needs to be extended, or—best of all worlds, but extremely unlikely—the debt ceiling needs to be eliminated.
Failure to deal with these issues in a timely manner will create additional uncertainty for business and the economy with negative fallout for investment and construction.
The Forecast
The Reed forecast assumes that, despite these risks, the economy grows at a moderate pace this year and next. Further, nonresidential building construction, which has been struggling of late, is forecast to gain traction and improve this year and next.
Heavy engineering (non-building) construction activity, which has shown some strength of late, is forecast to expand this year and next. Federal funding for infrastructure projects is expected to increase this year and beyond, although not by nearly the amount that is necessary to properly address the nation's aging infrastructure. The amount of funding available for public projects will greatly affect the level of infrastructure construction activity. Public-private partnerships at the state and local level will boost the amount of money available for infrastructure projects.
Total construction spending is forecast to increase 9.0% in 2014 and 11.3% in 2015, with nonresidential and heavy engineering construction gaining strength and residential construction continuing its expand.
For more from this report, including charts, click here.
Related Stories
| Dec 7, 2010
Are green building RFPs more important than contracts?
The Request for Proposal (RFP) process is key to managing a successful LEED project, according to Green Building Law Update. While most people think a contract is the key element to a successful construction project, successfully managing a LEED project requires a clear RFP that addresses many of the problems that can lead to litigation.
| Dec 7, 2010
Blue is the future of green design
Blue design creates places that are not just neutral, but actually add back to the world and is the future of sustainable design and architecture, according to an interview with Paul Eagle, managing director of Perkins+Will, New York; and Janice Barnes, principal at the firm and global discipline leader for planning and strategies.
| Dec 7, 2010
Green building thrives in shaky economy
Green building’s momentum hasn’t been stopped by the economic recession and will keep speeding through the recovery, while at the same time building owners are looking to go green more for economic reasons than environmental ones. Green building has grown 50% in the past two years; total construction starts have shrunk 26% over the same time period, according to “Green Outlook 2011” report. The green-building sector is expected to nearly triple by 2015, representing as much as $145 billion in new construction activity.
| Dec 7, 2010
USGBC: Wood-certification benchmarks fail to pass
The proposed Forest Certification Benchmark to determine when wood-certification groups would have their certification qualify for points in the LEED rating systemdid not pass the USGBC member ballot. As a result, the Certified Wood credit in LEED will remain as it is currently written. To date, only wood certified by the Forest Stewardship Council qualifies for a point in the LEED, while other organizations, such as the Sustainable Forestry Initiative, the Canadian Standards Association, and the American Tree Farm System, are excluded.
| Dec 7, 2010
Prospects for multifamily sector improve greatly
The multifamily sector is showing signs of a real recovery, with nearly 22,000 new apartment units delivered to the market. Net absorption in the third quarter surged by 94,000 units, dropping the national vacancy rate from 7.8% to 7.1%, one of the largest quarterly drops on record, and rents increased for the second quarter in a row.
| Dec 7, 2010
Hot rumor: Norman Foster designing Apple’s new campus
Lord Norman Foster, reportedly has been selected to design Apple’s new campus in Cupertino, Calif. If the news is true, Foster is a good match for Apple say experts. Foster built his celebrity by marrying big gestures to technological wizardry. And, unlike some starchitects, he has glommed onto the environmental revolution—something Apple has made a point of embracing, too.
| Dec 7, 2010
10 megacities of the near future
With Beijing, Shanghai, and Mumbai already on the global radar, where can the next wave of construction be found? Far beyond China, India, and even Brazil it’s predicted. The world’s next future megacities could include Istanbul, Turkey; Ho Chi Minh City, Vietnam; and Khartoum, Sudan, among others. Read about these emerging and little-known behemoths.
| Dec 7, 2010
Product of the Week: Petersen Aluminum’s column covers used in IBM’S new offices
IBM’s new offices at Dulles Station West in Herndon, Va., utilized Petersen’s PAC-1000 F Flush Series column covers. The columns are within the office’s Mobility Area, which is designed for a mobile workforce looking for quick in-and-out work space. The majority of workspaces in the office are unassigned and intended to be used on a temporary basis.
| Dec 6, 2010
Honeywell survey
Rising energy costs and a tough economic climate have forced the nation’s school districts to defer facility maintenance and delay construction projects, but they have also encouraged districts to pursue green initiatives, according to Honeywell’s second annual “School Energy and Environment Survey.”