Associated Builders and Contractors (ABC) Chief Economist Anirban Basu, American Institute of Architects (AIA) Chief Economist Kermit Baker and National Association of Home Builders (NAHB) Chief Economist Robert Dietz predicted continued growth for the construction industry in 2017 during a joint economic forecast this week (download the PDF slidedeck; watch the archived presentation).
Each economist discussed leading, present, and future indicators for sector performance, including ABC’s Construction Backlog Indicator (CBI), AIA’s latest Architecture Billings Index (ABI) and Construction Consensus Forecast, and the NAHB/Wells Fargo Housing Market Index (HMI).
The economists’ comments can be read below.
Anirban Basu, ABC Chief Economist: "Nonresidential construction spending growth will continue into the next year with an estimated increase in the range of 3 to 4 percent. Growth will continue to be led by privately financed projects, with commercial construction continuing to lead the way. Energy-related construction will become less of a drag in 2017, while public spending will continue to be lackluster."
Robert Dietz, NAHB Chief Economist: "Our forecast shows single-family production expanding by more than 10 percent in 2016, and the robust multifamily sector leveling off. Historically low mortgage interest rates and favorable demographics should keep the housing market moving forward at a gradual pace, but residential construction growth will be constrained by shortages of labor and lots and rising regulatory costs."
Kermit Baker, AIA Chief Economist: "Revenue at architecture firms continues to grow, so prospects for the construction industry remain solid over the next 12 to 18 months. Given current demographic trends, the single-family residential and the institutional building sectors have the greatest potential for further expansion at present."
Related Stories
Market Data | Feb 20, 2019
Strong start to 2019 for architecture billings
“The government shutdown affected architecture firms, but doesn’t appear to have created a slowdown in the profession,” said AIA Chief Economist Kermit Baker, Hon. AIA, PhD, in the latest ABI report.
Market Data | Feb 19, 2019
ABC Construction Backlog Indicator steady in Q4 2018
CBI reached a record high of 9.9 months in the second quarter of 2018 and averaged about 9.1 months throughout all four quarters of last year.
Market Data | Feb 14, 2019
U.S. Green Building Council announces top 10 countries and regions for LEED green building
The list ranks countries and regions in terms of cumulative LEED-certified gross square meters as of December 31, 2018.
Market Data | Feb 13, 2019
Increasingly tech-enabled construction industry powers forward despite volatility
Construction industry momentum to carry through first half of 2019.
Market Data | Feb 4, 2019
U.S. Green Building Council announces annual Top 10 States for LEED Green Building in 2018
Illinois takes the top spot as USGBC defines the next generation of green building with LEED v4.1.
Market Data | Feb 4, 2019
Nonresidential construction spending dips in November
Total nonresidential spending stood at $751.5 billion on a seasonally adjusted annualized rate.
Market Data | Feb 1, 2019
The year-end U.S. hotel construction pipeline continues steady growth trend
Project counts in the early planning stage continue to rise reaching an all-time high of 1,723 projects/199,326 rooms.
Market Data | Feb 1, 2019
Construction spending is projected to increase by more than 11% through 2022
FMI’s annual outlook also expects the industry’s frantic M&A activity to be leavened by caution going forward.
Market Data | Jan 23, 2019
Architecture billings slow, but close 2018 with growing demand
AIA’s Architecture Billings Index (ABI) score for December was 50.4 compared to 54.7 in November.
Market Data | Jan 16, 2019
AIA 2019 Consensus Forecast: Nonresidential construction spending to rise 4.4%
The education, public safety, and office sectors will lead the growth areas this year, but AIA's Kermit Baker offers a cautious outlook for 2020.