Following a 19.7% surge in spending for commercial, institutional, and industrial buildings in 2023, leading construction industry economists expect spending growth to come back to earth in 2024, according to the July 2023 AIA Consensus Construction Forecast Panel.
The twice-yearly Consensus Construction report aggregates building construction spending forecasts from nine leading economists:
- Richard Branch, Dodge Construction Network
- Scott Hazelton, S&P Global
- Steven Shields, Moody's Analytics
- Brian Strawberry, FMI
- Alex Carrick, ConstructConnect
- Anirban Basu, Associated Builders and Contractors
- Charles Dougherty, Wells Fargo Securities
- Bernard Markstein, Markstein Advisors
- Mark Vitner, Piedmont Crescent Capital
All nine economists are in agreement on a 2024 spending-growth slowdown. Two economists are calling for a contraction in spending (Wells Fargo, -1.0%; Piedmont Crescent Capital, -4.7%). ABC's Anirban Basu is the most bullish on 2024, predicting a 7.7% increase in overall building spending.
"The first half of this year has seen gains in construction spending on nonresidential buildings approaching 20%. However, this scorching growth rate is expected to moderate a bit moving into the third and fourth quarters," wrote AIA Chief Economist Kermit Baker, Hon. AIA, in the report. "Even with the easing in supply chain issues and the improved pricing of many construction materials and products, elevated interest rates, more restrictive lending on the part of banks, nervousness over the direction of the economy, and construction labor constraints are expected to slow the pace of growth."
Bright spots for the remainder of 2023 and 2024 include:
- Healthcare, driven by the aging baby boom population
- Manufacturing/distribution, thanks to the post-Covid reshoring of production resulting from supply chain issues during the pandemic
- Hotels, with leisure travel returning to normal following the pandemic
- Education, as school districts and higher education institutions play catch-up on projects in the wake of Covid.
"There are emerging concerns that outsourcing the manufacturing of high-tech products leaves our economy and national defense more vulnerable," Baker wrote. "The $280 billion in funding provided by the 2022 federal CHIPS and Science Act is designed to advance domestic research and manufacturing of semiconductors in the United States. These funds will boost spending for these facilities for much of the coming decade."
View the full AIA Consensus Construction Forecast Panel report, including an interactive table with market forecasts from all nine economists.
![July 2023 AIA Consensus Construction Forecast Panel](/sites/default/files/inline-images/Screenshot%202023-07-24%20at%201.09.25%20PM_0.png)
Related Stories
Market Data | Apr 13, 2020
6 must reads for the AEC industry today: April 13, 2020
How prefab can enable the AEC industry to quickly create new hospital beds and Abu Dhabi launches a design competition focused on reducing urban heat island effect.
Market Data | Apr 10, 2020
5 must reads for the AEC industry today: April 10, 2020
Designing for the next generation of student life and a mass timber Ramada Hotel rises in British Columbia.
Market Data | Apr 9, 2020
7 must reads for the AEC industry today: April 9, 2020
Urine could be the key to building in outer space and how to turn a high school into a patient care center in just over two weeks.
Market Data | Apr 8, 2020
6 must reads for the AEC industry today: April 8, 2020
Stantec discusses how hospitals can adapt buildings to address worst-case scenarios and FXCollaborative Architects tells us why cities will survive the pandemic.
Market Data | Apr 7, 2020
7 must reads for the AEC industry today: April 7, 2020
Leo A Daly's Hotel2Hospital prototype takes shape, while the number of delayed projects reaches 2,550 in the U.S. amid coronavirus pandemic.
Market Data | Apr 3, 2020
COVID-19 cuts nonresidential construction employment in March
The construction unemployment rate was 6.9% in March, up 1.7 percentage points from the same time one year ago.
Market Data | Apr 1, 2020
February’s construction spending decline indicates what’s to come
Private nonresidential spending declined 2% on a monthly basis and is down 0.7% compared to February 2019.
Market Data | Mar 26, 2020
Architects taking action to support COVID-19 response
New AIA task force will offer insights for adapting buildings into healthcare facilities.
Market Data | Mar 26, 2020
Senate coronavirus relief bill's tax and lending provisions will help construction firms, but industry needs additional measures
Construction officials say measure will help firms cope with immediate cash flow crunch, but industry needs compensation for losses.