Following a 19.7% surge in spending for commercial, institutional, and industrial buildings in 2023, leading construction industry economists expect spending growth to come back to earth in 2024, according to the July 2023 AIA Consensus Construction Forecast Panel.
The twice-yearly Consensus Construction report aggregates building construction spending forecasts from nine leading economists:
- Richard Branch, Dodge Construction Network
- Scott Hazelton, S&P Global
- Steven Shields, Moody's Analytics
- Brian Strawberry, FMI
- Alex Carrick, ConstructConnect
- Anirban Basu, Associated Builders and Contractors
- Charles Dougherty, Wells Fargo Securities
- Bernard Markstein, Markstein Advisors
- Mark Vitner, Piedmont Crescent Capital
All nine economists are in agreement on a 2024 spending-growth slowdown. Two economists are calling for a contraction in spending (Wells Fargo, -1.0%; Piedmont Crescent Capital, -4.7%). ABC's Anirban Basu is the most bullish on 2024, predicting a 7.7% increase in overall building spending.
"The first half of this year has seen gains in construction spending on nonresidential buildings approaching 20%. However, this scorching growth rate is expected to moderate a bit moving into the third and fourth quarters," wrote AIA Chief Economist Kermit Baker, Hon. AIA, in the report. "Even with the easing in supply chain issues and the improved pricing of many construction materials and products, elevated interest rates, more restrictive lending on the part of banks, nervousness over the direction of the economy, and construction labor constraints are expected to slow the pace of growth."
Bright spots for the remainder of 2023 and 2024 include:
- Healthcare, driven by the aging baby boom population
- Manufacturing/distribution, thanks to the post-Covid reshoring of production resulting from supply chain issues during the pandemic
- Hotels, with leisure travel returning to normal following the pandemic
- Education, as school districts and higher education institutions play catch-up on projects in the wake of Covid.
"There are emerging concerns that outsourcing the manufacturing of high-tech products leaves our economy and national defense more vulnerable," Baker wrote. "The $280 billion in funding provided by the 2022 federal CHIPS and Science Act is designed to advance domestic research and manufacturing of semiconductors in the United States. These funds will boost spending for these facilities for much of the coming decade."
View the full AIA Consensus Construction Forecast Panel report, including an interactive table with market forecasts from all nine economists.
![July 2023 AIA Consensus Construction Forecast Panel](/sites/default/files/inline-images/Screenshot%202023-07-24%20at%201.09.25%20PM_0.png)
Related Stories
Market Data | Oct 22, 2020
Multifamily’s long-term outlook rebounds to pre-covid levels in Q3
Slump was a short one for multifamily market as 3rd quarter proposal activity soars.
Market Data | Oct 21, 2020
Architectural billings slowdown moderated in September
AIA’s ABI score for September was 47.0 compared to 40.0 in August.
Market Data | Oct 21, 2020
Only eight states top February peak construction employment despite gains in 32 states last month
California and Vermont post worst losses since February as Virginia and South Dakota add the most.
Market Data | Oct 20, 2020
AIA releases updated contracts for multi-family residential and prototype residential projects
New resources provide insights into mitigating and managing risk on complex residential design and construction projects.
Market Data | Oct 20, 2020
Construction officials call on Trump and Biden to establish a nationwide vaccine distribution plan to avoid confusion and delays
Officials say nationwide plan should set clear distribution priorities.
Market Data | Oct 19, 2020
5 must reads for the AEC industry today: October 19, 2020
Lower cost metros outperform pricey gateway markets and E-commerce fuels industrial's unstoppable engine.
Market Data | Oct 19, 2020
Lower-cost metros continue to outperform pricey gateway markets, Yardi Matrix reports
But year-over-year multifamily trendline remained negative at -0.3%, unchanged from July.
Market Data | Oct 16, 2020
5 must reads for the AEC industry today: October 16, 2020
Princeton's new museum and Miami's yacht-inspired luxury condos.
Market Data | Oct 15, 2020
6 must reads for the AEC industry today: October 15, 2020
Chicago's Bank of America Tower opens and altering facilities for a post-COVID-19 world.
Market Data | Oct 14, 2020
6 must reads for the AEC industry today: October 14, 2020
Thailand's new Elephant Museum and the Art Gallery of New South Wales receives an expansion.