Although 2013 isn’t likely to be anyone’s idea of a blockbuster year for real estate performance, landlords across an array of commercial property types are gaining pricing control and increased rental income from their assets. Keys to the equation for property types other than apartments are construction volumes near 40-year lows and incremental job gains from a handful of growth sectors, including energy and technology.
“The lack of new construction has been a saving grace since the beginning of the recession,” said Jay Koster, Americas President for Capital Markets at Jones Lang LaSalle. “We’re also seeing accelerated obsolescence among older buildings as tenants upgrade to higher quality and more efficient space, and that is helping to fill marketable properties and drive up rents, even with only slow underlying growth.”
Multifamily retains strength: Rental apartments, by contrast, have far surpassed other property types in the development cycle and are approaching peak performance levels in many markets, according to Jones Lang LaSalle’s First Quarter 2013 Cross Sector Outlook, distributed today during the Urban Land Institute’s 2013 Spring Meeting, in San Diego, May 14-17th. The report tracks and compares the relative health of property sectors nationally and by local markets.
“Multifamily rents across the U.S. climbed to historic highs at the end of 2012, up 4.4 percent year-over-year,” said Marisha Clinton, Director of Capital Markets Research at Jones Lang LaSalle and one of the report’s authors. “Short-term setbacks may occur, particularly in overbuilt submarkets, but we believe demand from an expanding renter population will keep apartment fundamentals strong into 2017.”
Retail improving: Even the retail sector, which is more of a “wild card” and appears to be bottoming out, has been weighed down by constrained consumer spending and competition with online retailers but has showed slight net absorption in the first quarter. That means that the leased portion of available space across the nation increased by 0.3 percent.
Retail tenants are soaking up available space fastest in a handful of markets, most of which enjoy either a booming energy sector or a recovering housing market. Markets to watch include Broward County, Tampa and Orlando in Florida; Charlotte and Raleigh in North Carolina; Dallas and Houston in Texas; Minneapolis, and Seattle.
Retail construction volume will remain low for the next few years as investors focus on redevelopment of existing properties in order to attract and retain tenants. As with all property types, low interest rates have enabled more investors to afford acquisitions and retail investment sales volumes have risen steadily over the past 12 months. Private investors and real estate investment trusts (REITs) accounted for more than 68 percent of acquisitions in that period.
Anita Kramer, vice president at the ULI Center for Capital Markets and Real Estate, says retailer performance as a whole will continue to drag as long as unemployment is high and consumer spending is constrained, with only slow increases in retail demand to serve a growing population.
“We’re all hoping retail will make a comeback, but there’s really concern about whether consumers are loosening up,” Kramer said. “There are clearly a lot of people out there that aren’t spending. When they start spending, that’s when we will have an incremental kick to retail.”
Investors follow the big picture
Real estate investors need to consider cross-sector performance measures because the strengths and weaknesses of one sector can affect properties of another type, Kramer observed. She points out that a mixed-use development will typically begin with a single use, such as retail, that provides a draw for other uses to be developed in later phases, perhaps adding multifamily or office space.
The same relationships exist between individual projects in many submarkets, particularly in central business districts that are enjoying an inflow of employers and workers with a strong desire for rental housing, dining and entertainment nearby. In those cases, a stronghold in one property type may create opportunities in other sectors down the road.
“Anybody who is thoughtfully in any sector of real estate at this point needs to monitor all sectors,” Kramer said.
Additional First Quarter 2013 Cross Sector Outlook highlights:
- Strong hotel sector performance underpins a buoyant transactions market. Hotel property sales are on track to reach $17 billion in 2013, up from $16.4 billion in 2012.
- The national office market was markedly healthier in the first quarter from a year ago, with a dramatic decline in sublease space, increase in occupancy, and rent growth in more than 80 percent of major markets.
- Modern, functionally superior industrial space is in high demand, with occupancy at post-recession highs. Look for demand to broaden as mid-sized tenants return to the market.
Jones Lang LaSalle Capital Markets is a full-service global provider of capital solutions for real estate investors and occupiers. The firm’s in-depth local market and global investor knowledge delivers the best-in-class solutions for clients — whether a sale, financing, repositioning, advisory or recapitalization execution. In 2012 alone, Jones Lang LaSalle Capital Markets completed $63 billion in investment sale and debt and equity transactions globally. The firm’s dealmakers completed $60 billion in global investment sales and buy-side transactions, equating to nearly $240 million of investment trades completed every working day around the globe. The firm’s Capital Markets team comprises more than 1,300 specialists, operating all over the globe.
For more news, videos and research resources on Jones Lang LaSalle, please visit the firm’s U.S. media center Web page. Bookmark it here: http://www.us.am.joneslanglasalle.com/UnitedStates/EN-US/Pages/News.aspx
About Jones Lang LaSalle
Jones Lang LaSalle (NYSE:JLL) is a professional services and investment management firm offering specialized real estate services to clients seeking increased value by owning, occupying and investing in real estate. With annual revenue of $3.9 billion, Jones Lang LaSale operates in 70 countries from more than 1,000 locations worldwide. On behalf of its clients, the firm provides management and real estate outsourcing services to a property portfolio of 2.6 billion square feet and completed $63 billion in sales, acquisitions and finance transactions in 2012. Its investment management business, LaSalle Investment Management, has $47.7 billion of real estate assets under management. For further information, visit www.jll.com.
Related Stories
Shopping Centers | Aug 22, 2023
The mall of the future
There are three critical aspects of mall design that, through evolution, have proven to be instrumental in the staying power of a retail destination: parking, planning, and customer experience. This are crucial to the mall of the future.
Affordable Housing | Aug 21, 2023
Essential housing: What’s in a name?
For many in our communities, rising rents and increased demand for housing means they are only one paycheck away from being unhoused. It’s time to stop thinking of affordable housing as a handout and start calling it what it is: Essential Housing.
Healthcare Facilities | Aug 21, 2023
Sutter Health’s new surgical care center finishes three months early, $3 million under budget
Sutter Health’s Samaritan Court Ambulatory Care and Surgery Center (Samaritan Court), a three-story, 69,000 sf medical office building, was recently completed three months early and $3 million under budget, according to general contractor Skanska.
Healthcare Facilities | Aug 18, 2023
Psychiatric hospital to feature biophilic elements, aim for net-zero energy
A new 521,000 sf, 350-bed behavioral health hospital in Lakewood, Wash., a Tacoma suburb, will serve forensic patients who enter care through the criminal court system, freeing other areas of campus to serve civil patients. The facility at Western State Hospital, to be designed by HOK, will promote a holistic approach to rehabilitation as part of the state’s vision for transforming behavioral health.
Vertical Transportation | Aug 17, 2023
Latest version of elevator safety code has more than 100 changes
A new version of ASME A17.1/CSA B44, a safety code for elevators, escalators, and related equipment developed by the American Society of Mechanical Engineers, will be released next month.
Adaptive Reuse | Aug 16, 2023
One of New York’s largest office-to-residential conversions kicks off soon
One of New York City’s largest office-to-residential conversions will soon be underway in lower Manhattan. 55 Broad Street, which served as the headquarters for Goldman Sachs from 1967 until 1983, will be reborn as a residence with 571 market rate apartments. The 30-story building will offer a wealth of amenities including a private club, wellness and fitness activities.
Sustainability | Aug 15, 2023
Carbon management platform offers free carbon emissions assessment for NYC buildings
nZero, developer of a real-time carbon accounting and management platform, is offering free carbon emissions assessments for buildings in New York City. The offer is intended to help building owners prepare for the city’s upcoming Local Law 97 reporting requirements and compliance. This law will soon assess monetary fines for buildings with emissions that are in non-compliance.
Office Buildings | Aug 15, 2023
Amount of office space in U.S. is declining for the first time, says JLL
In what is likely a historic first, the amount of office space in the U.S. is forecast to decline in 2023, according to Jones Lang LaSalle. This would be the first net decline according to data going back to 2000, JLL says, and it’s likely the first decline ever.
Fire-Rated Products | Aug 14, 2023
Free download: Fire-rated glazing 101 technical guide from the National Glass Association
The National Glass Association (NGA) is pleased to announce the publication of a new technical resource, Fire-Rated Glazing 101. This five-page document addresses how to incorporate fire-rated glazing systems in a manner that not only provides protection to building occupants from fire, but also considers other design goals, such as daylight, privacy and security.
Office Buildings | Aug 14, 2023
The programmatic evolution of the lobby
Ian Reves, Managing Director for IA's Atlanta studio, shares how design can shape a lobby into an office mainstay.