Design that “puts people back at the center” is now the driving force behind resilient, livable cities, according to Gensler’s just-released 2018 Design Forecast, “Shaping the Future of Cities.”
The 61-page report, which can be downloaded from here, is a collection of more than 200 trends that are defining design across the globe. The report is organized into three sections—Work, Lifestyle, and Cities—and is framed by five forces that Gensler sees as having the greatest impact on businesses, cities, and human experiences: demographic shifts, technology driven disruption, rapid urbanization, climate change, and worldwide volatility.
Throughout the report, Gensler draws upon its own research and portfolio of projects to illustrate trends across myriad typologies. Each of the report’s chapters provides statistical tidbits from a variety of sources that call out trends and dynamics that AEC firms and their clients can’t ignore.
Some examples:
•From 2017 to 2027, it’s predicted that the U.S. will face a shortage of 8.2 million laborers—the most significant deficit in the past 50 years. “To succeed, organizations must put people first: investing in the individual, diversifying work spaces, and reinforcing a shared culture and mission,” states Gensler.
•“By 2020, 31 billion devices and 4.8 billion people will be connected to the Internet,” according to the research firm Gartner.
•Global coworking spaces will grow from 14,411 in 2017 to over 30,000 in 2022. The number of worldwide coworking members will nearly triple to over five million.
•Forbes estimated last year that there could be 10 million self-driving cars on the road by 2020. The Gensler Research Institute predicts autonomous vehicles will completely change cities. “Building form will change radically as design is dictated less—or not at all—by parking requirements, which will decrease dramatically.”
•Credit Suisse predicts that as online sales march toward 35% of all retail sales by 2030 (from 17% today), between one fifth to one quarter of American malls could close by as early as 2022.
Time and again, Gensler’s forecast returns to its primary thesis: that regardless of technological advances or political and economic uncertainties, design must factor in human needs and social interactions to be effective. For instance, Gensler foresees the next generation of office building as drawing employees back into the office. “Mobility will remain an important part of work, but the value of face-to-face remains undisputed,” the report states. “On-site spaces that support a variety of work modes—including social—create dynamic developments and yield longer-term tenants.”
The Boston Consulting Group's office in New York City features staircases that facilitate floor-to-floor interaction and employee movement. Image: Gensler
That prediction dovetails with Gensler’s expectation that multipurpose buildings “are the future,” and that smart buildings “are critical to the workplace experience.” But as data multiply exponentially, “companies will need to expand their capabilities to harness and interpret their internal workplace data.”
Lifestyle design is now reckoning with trends that are making single-use spaces obsolete. Frictionless, seamless design is becoming ubiquitous, with convenience being a differentiator, as consumers take more control of their experiences in ways that shape, and reshape, brand identities.
Gensler sees “smart cities” in terms of their adaptability and resilience. As engines of innovation, cities “are nurturing a new mix” of businesses and people. Their leaders are in the vanguard of climate action “because they depend on it” for survival and growth. And wellness is the new measure of livability. “Health has become a major factor in urban and community planning, as research and public awareness about the link between them grows,” the report states.
Related Stories
Healthcare Facilities | May 19, 2023
A new behavioral health facility in California targets net zero energy
Shortly before Mental Health Awareness Month in May, development and construction firm Skanska announced the topping out of California’s first behavioral health facility—and the largest in the nation—to target net zero energy. Located in Redwood City, San Mateo County, Calif., the 77,610-sf Cordilleras Health System Replacement Project is slated for completion in late 2024.
Arenas | May 18, 2023
How can we reimagine live sports experiences?
A Gensler survey finds what sports fans' experiences have been like returning to arenas, and their expectations going forward.
Government Buildings | May 18, 2023
GSA launches first biennial construction award program
Today, the U.S. General Services Administration (GSA) announced the new biennial GSA Construction Award program, which is seeking submissions this summer. The program was created to honor outstanding achievements in construction, with a focus on quality and craftsmanship, collaboration and team dynamics, sustainability, innovation, and technology. The first Construction Awards ceremony will take place in 2024.
K-12 Schools | May 17, 2023
Designing K-12 schools for students and safety
While bullying, mental health, and other acts of violence are all too common in schools today, designers have shown that smart and subtle preventive steps can make a big difference. Clark Nexsen’s Becky Brady shares how prevention and taking action at the design level can create safe and engaging learning environments.
Affordable Housing | May 17, 2023
Affordable housing advocates push for community-owned homes over investment properties
Panelists participating in a recent webinar hosted by the Urban Institute discussed various actions that could help alleviate the nation’s affordable housing crisis. Among the possible remedies: inclusionary zoning policies, various reforms to increase local affordable housing stock, and fees on new development to offset the impact on public infrastructure.
University Buildings | May 17, 2023
New UC Irvine health sciences building supports aim to become national model for integrative health
The new College of Health Sciences Building and Nursing & Health Sciences Hall at the University of California Irvine supports the institution’s goal of becoming a national model for integrative health. The new 211,660-sf facility houses nursing, medical doctorate, pharmacy, philosophy, and public health programs in a single building.
Sponsored | Building Enclosure Systems | May 16, 2023
4 steps to a better building enclosure
Dividing the outside environment from the interior, the building enclosure is one of the most important parts of the structure. The enclosure not only defines the building’s aesthetic, but also protects occupants from the elements and facilitates a comfortable, controlled climate. With dozens of components comprising the exterior assemblies, from foundation to cladding to roof, figuring out which concerns to address first can be daunting.
Multifamily Housing | May 16, 2023
Legislators aim to make office-to-housing conversions easier
Lawmakers around the country are looking for ways to spur conversions of office space to residential use.cSuch projects come with challenges such as inadequate plumbing, not enough exterior-facing windows, and footprints that don’t easily lend themselves to residential use. These conditions raise the cost for developers.
Headquarters | May 16, 2023
Workplace HQ for party clothing company Shinesty celebrates its bold, whimsical products
The new Denver headquarters for Shinesty, a party clothing company, was designed to match the brand’s fun image with an iconic array of colors, textures, and prints curated by the design agency, Maximalist. Shinesty’s mission, to challenge the world to live more freely and “take itself less seriously,” is embodied throughout the office interior.
Office Buildings | May 15, 2023
Sixteen-story office tower will use 40% less energy than an average NYC office building
This month marks the completion of a new 16-story office tower that is being promoted as New York City’s most sustainable office structure. That boast is backed by an innovative HVAC system that features geothermal wells, dedicated outdoor air system (DOAS) units, radiant heating and cooling, and a sophisticated control system to ensure that the elements work optimally together.