A few days ago, The Wall Street Journal reported that one-sixth of all office space under construction nationwide is located in the Houston metropolitan area.
The Journal quoted the property data firm CoStar Group, which stated that by the end of 2014, 80 buildings with about 18 million sf of office space were started in Greater Houston.
This wouldn’t be earthshaking news—Houston, after all, continues to be one of country’s more vibrant markets, ranking 39th out of 300 of the largest metropolitan economies worldwide, according to the Brookings Institution’s Global MetroMonitor—were it not for the fact that all this office construction is occurring at a time when the price of oil—a commodity that helps lubricate Houston’s economic engine—has plummeted by more than 50% since last summer.
Several of the biggest energy companies have announced more than 30,000 layoffs worldwide, and a sizable number of those workers could be Houstonians. Fewer workers require fewer offices, and employers are already rushing to sublease the space they occupy, the Journal reports.
Sources: WSJ, CoStar Group
In a follow-up story, the Journal reports that 13.2 million sf of office space are on schedule to be completed in 2015, the highest total since 1984.
CoStar now estimates that Houston’s vacancy rate could rise to 15.3% by 2016, from 10.8% at the end of 2014.
The newspaper singles out one development firm, Hines, that’s building a 48-story tower on spec, without tenants lined up, as an example of how certain companies suddenly find themselves exposed to a potential economic downturn. On the flip side, excess office space and higher vacancy rates could lead to lower rents, and opportunities to find existing space rather than building new.
HOUSTON NOT AS OIL DEPENDENT
But is Houston really headed for a fall? Not if you listen to some of the comments posted about the Journal article. One reader insisted that Houston is nowhere near as oil dependent as it was in the 1980s, when its housing market all but collapsed and nine of Texas’s 10 largest banks failed.
“Houston is twice as large as it was in 1980, and its dynamic economy is now twice as diversified,” one reader commented. “Also, the oil industry has fortified itself since 1980. Houston now boasts 11 major economic sectors in its massive economy.”
(Similar arguments about Louisiana’s supposedly more-diverse economy were made recently in an article published by The Advocate in Baton Rouge, La., which reported that only 13% of that state’s proceeds is now tied to mineral revenue, compared to 42% in the 1980s.)
A recent survey of Houston-area purchasing managers at 45 companies found that those not so tightly bound to oil prices—such as utilities and non-energy manufacturing—have seen a boost in new orders, production levels, and supplier purchases.
“We’ll have to see where things go in the next few months,” Ross Harvison, Chairman of the Institute for Supply Management-Houston Business Survey Committee, told the Houston Chronicle.
Even the Journal article acknowledges that any “bust” in Houston’s economy might turn out to be short term. The newspaper quotes Mike Mair, Executive VP in charge of Skanska’s construction in Houston, who says his company isn’t panicking about what he concedes could be as “soft” 2015. Skanska is currently building two 12-story towers, one of which doesn’t have tenants yet, and Mair says those projects will proceed. “I’m not afraid of ’16 and ’17,” he is quoted as saying.
Mair’s optimism is promulgated, in part, on long-range projections about Houston’s population, now at around 6.5 million. The Texas State Data Centers expects that people count to expand by an average 2.2 million residents per decade over the next 40 years.
Even with falling oil prices, Houston is expected to add 62,900 jobs in 2015, according to the Greater Houston Partnership. Most cities would welcome such a bounty, but the bar is set higher for Houston, which added 120,000 jobs last year.
Related Stories
Smart Buildings | Jun 8, 2014
Big Data: How one city took control of its facility assets with data
Over the past few years, Buffalo has developed a cutting-edge facility management program to ensure it's utilizing its facilities and operations as efficiently, effectively, and sustainably as possible.
| Jun 6, 2014
KPF, Kevin Roche unveil design for 51-story Hudson Yards tower in NYC [slideshow]
Related Companies and Oxford Properties Group are teaming to develop Fifty Five Hudson Yards, the latest addition to the commercial office tower collection in the 28-acre Hudson Yards development—the largest private real estate development in the history of the U.S.
| Jun 3, 2014
Libeskind's latest skyscraper breaks ground in the Philippines
The Century Spire, Daniel Libeskind's latest project, has just broken ground in Century City, southwest of Manila. It is meant to accommodate apartments and offices.
| Jun 2, 2014
Parking structures group launches LEED-type program for parking garages
The Green Parking Council, an affiliate of the International Parking Institute, has launched the Green Garage Certification program, the parking industry equivalent of LEED certification.
| May 29, 2014
7 cost-effective ways to make U.S. infrastructure more resilient
Moving critical elements to higher ground and designing for longer lifespans are just some of the ways cities and governments can make infrastructure more resilient to natural disasters and climate change, writes Richard Cavallaro, President of Skanska USA Civil.
| May 28, 2014
KPF's dual towers in Turkey will incorporate motifs, symbols of Ottoman Empire
The two-building headquarters for Turkey’s largest and oldest financial institution, Ziraat Bank, is inspired by the country’s cultural heritage.
| May 27, 2014
One World Trade Center cuts rents due to sluggish activity
Sluggish economy and lackluster leasing force developer The Durst Organization and the Port Authority of New York and New Jersey to reduce asking rents by nearly 10% to $69/sf.
| May 23, 2014
Big design, small package: AIA Chicago names 2014 Small Project Awards winners
Winning projects include an events center for Mies van der Rohe's landmark Farnsworth House and a new boathouse along the Chicago river.
| May 23, 2014
Top interior design trends: Gensler, HOK, FXFOWLE, Mancini Duffy weigh in
Tech-friendly furniture, “live walls,” sit-stand desks, and circadian lighting are among the emerging trends identified by leading interior designers.
| May 22, 2014
Big Data meets data centers – What the coming DCIM boom means to owners and Building Teams
The demand for sophisticated facility monitoring solutions has spurred a new market segment—data center infrastructure management (DCIM)—that is likely to impact the way data center projects are planned, designed, built, and operated.