With slower than expected activity in the nonresidential construction sector in the first half of the year, the projections for growth in spending have been scaled back.
Led by the hotel and retail project categories, the commercial sector looks largely unchanged, but a noteworthy drop in demand for institutional projects has caused participants in the American Institute of Architects’ (AIA) semi-annual Consensus Construction Forecast, a survey of the nation’s leading construction forecasters, to reduce projections for spending to a 2.3% increase in 2013, with next year’s projections raised to 7.6%.
Market Segment Consensus Growth Forecasts |
||
| 2013 | 2014 | |
| Overall nonresidential | 2.30% | 7.60% |
| Commercial / industrial | 8.50% | 11.50% |
| Hotels | 17.40% | 15.00% |
| Retail | 8.20% | 11.70% |
| Office buildings | 5.80% | 9.50% |
| Industrial facilities | 4.00% | 6.30% |
| Institutional | -1.80% | 5.60% |
| Religious | 1.50% | 6.00% |
| Healthcare facilities | 1.40% | 7.70% |
| Education | -2.50% | 4.80% |
| Amusement/recreation | -4.10% | 6.50% |
| Public safety | -4.80% | 1.00% |
“A disappointing recovery of the U.S. economy is limiting need for new nonresidential building activity,” said AIA Chief Economist, Kermit Baker, PhD, Hon. AIA. “Optimism for a stronger performance next year is based on the recent increase in domestic energy production, the boost to the general economy from a resurgent housing market, and improving employment figures that should help drive demand in the design and construction sectors.”
About the AIA Consensus Construction Forecast Panel
The AIA Consensus Construction Forecast Panel is conducted twice a year with the leading nonresidential construction forecasters in the United States including, McGraw Hill Construction, Wells Fargo Securities, IHS-Global Insight, Moody’s economy.com, Reed Business Information, Associated Builders & Contractors and FMI. The purpose of the Consensus Construction Forecast Panel is to project business conditions in the construction industry over the coming 12 to 18 months. The Consensus Construction Forecast Panel has been conducted for 14 years.
About The American Institute of Architects
Founded in 1857, members of the American Institute of Architects consistently work to create more valuable, healthy, secure, and sustainable buildings, neighborhoods, and communities. Through nearly 300 state and local chapters, the AIA advocates for public policies that promote economic vitality and public well being. Members adhere to a code of ethics and conduct to ensure the highest professional standards. The AIA provides members with tools and resources to assist them in their careers and business as well as engaging civic and government leaders, and the public to find solutions to pressing issues facing our communities, institutions, nation and world. Visit www.aia.org.
Related Stories
Healthcare Facilities | Nov 3, 2023
The University of Chicago Medicine is building its city’s first freestanding cancer center with inpatient and outpatient services
The University of Chicago Medicine (UChicago Medicine) is building Chicago’s first freestanding cancer center with inpatient and outpatient services. Aiming to bridge longstanding health disparities on Chicago’s South Side, the $815 million project will consolidate care and about 200 team members currently spread across at least five buildings. The new facility, which broke ground in September, is expected to open to patients in spring 2027.
Office Buildings | Nov 2, 2023
Amazon’s second headquarters completes its first buildings: a pair of 22-story towers
Amazon has completed construction of the first two buildings of its second headquarters, located in Arlington, Va. The all-electric structures, featuring low carbon concrete and mass timber, help further the company’s commitment to achieving net zero carbon emissions by 2040 and 100% renewable energy consumption by 2030. Designed by ZGF Architects, the two 22-story buildings are on track to become the largest LEED v4 Platinum buildings in the U.S.
Sustainability | Nov 1, 2023
Researchers create building air leakage detection system using a camera in real time
Researchers at the U.S. Department of Energy’s Oak Ridge National Laboratory have developed a system that uses a camera to detect air leakage from buildings in real time.
Adaptive Reuse | Nov 1, 2023
Biden Administration reveals plan to spur more office-to-residential conversions
The Biden Administration recently announced plans to encourage more office buildings to be converted to residential use. The plan includes using federal money to lend to developers for conversion projects and selling government property that is suitable for conversions.
Sustainability | Nov 1, 2023
Tool identifies financial incentives for decarbonizing heavy industry, transportation projects
Rocky Mountain Institute (RMI) has released a tool to identify financial incentives to help developers, industrial companies, and investors find financial incentives for heavy industry and transport projects.
Contractors | Nov 1, 2023
Nonresidential construction spending increases for the 16th straight month, in September 2023
National nonresidential construction spending increased 0.3% in September, according to an Associated Builders and Contractors analysis of data published today by the U.S. Census Bureau. On a seasonally adjusted annualized basis, nonresidential spending totaled $1.1 trillion.
Sponsored | MFPRO+ Course | Oct 30, 2023
For the Multifamily Sector, Product Innovations Boost Design and Construction Success
This course covers emerging trends in exterior design and products/systems selection in the low- and mid-rise market-rate and luxury multifamily rental market. Topics include facade design, cladding material trends, fenestration trends/innovations, indoor/outdoor connection, and rooftop spaces.
Office Buildings | Oct 30, 2023
Find Your 30: Creating a unique sense of place in the workplace while emphasizing brand identity
Finding Your 30 gives each office a sense of autonomy, and it allows for bigger and broader concepts that emphasize distinctive cultural, historic or other similar attributes.
Giants 400 | Oct 30, 2023
Top 170 K-12 School Architecture Firms for 2023
PBK Architects, Huckabee, DLR Group, VLK Architects, and Stantec top BD+C's ranking of the nation's largest K-12 school building architecture and architecture/engineering (AE) firms for 2023, as reported in Building Design+Construction's 2023 Giants 400 Report.
Giants 400 | Oct 30, 2023
Top 100 K-12 School Construction Firms for 2023
CORE Construction, Gilbane, Balfour Beatty, Skanska USA, and Adolfson & Peterson top BD+C's ranking of the nation's largest K-12 school building contractors and construction management (CM) firms for 2023, as reported in Building Design+Construction's 2023 Giants 400 Report.
