With slower than expected activity in the nonresidential construction sector in the first half of the year, the projections for growth in spending have been scaled back.
Led by the hotel and retail project categories, the commercial sector looks largely unchanged, but a noteworthy drop in demand for institutional projects has caused participants in the American Institute of Architects’ (AIA) semi-annual Consensus Construction Forecast, a survey of the nation’s leading construction forecasters, to reduce projections for spending to a 2.3% increase in 2013, with next year’s projections raised to 7.6%.
Market Segment Consensus Growth Forecasts |
||
| 2013 | 2014 | |
| Overall nonresidential | 2.30% | 7.60% |
| Commercial / industrial | 8.50% | 11.50% |
| Hotels | 17.40% | 15.00% |
| Retail | 8.20% | 11.70% |
| Office buildings | 5.80% | 9.50% |
| Industrial facilities | 4.00% | 6.30% |
| Institutional | -1.80% | 5.60% |
| Religious | 1.50% | 6.00% |
| Healthcare facilities | 1.40% | 7.70% |
| Education | -2.50% | 4.80% |
| Amusement/recreation | -4.10% | 6.50% |
| Public safety | -4.80% | 1.00% |
“A disappointing recovery of the U.S. economy is limiting need for new nonresidential building activity,” said AIA Chief Economist, Kermit Baker, PhD, Hon. AIA. “Optimism for a stronger performance next year is based on the recent increase in domestic energy production, the boost to the general economy from a resurgent housing market, and improving employment figures that should help drive demand in the design and construction sectors.”
About the AIA Consensus Construction Forecast Panel
The AIA Consensus Construction Forecast Panel is conducted twice a year with the leading nonresidential construction forecasters in the United States including, McGraw Hill Construction, Wells Fargo Securities, IHS-Global Insight, Moody’s economy.com, Reed Business Information, Associated Builders & Contractors and FMI. The purpose of the Consensus Construction Forecast Panel is to project business conditions in the construction industry over the coming 12 to 18 months. The Consensus Construction Forecast Panel has been conducted for 14 years.
About The American Institute of Architects
Founded in 1857, members of the American Institute of Architects consistently work to create more valuable, healthy, secure, and sustainable buildings, neighborhoods, and communities. Through nearly 300 state and local chapters, the AIA advocates for public policies that promote economic vitality and public well being. Members adhere to a code of ethics and conduct to ensure the highest professional standards. The AIA provides members with tools and resources to assist them in their careers and business as well as engaging civic and government leaders, and the public to find solutions to pressing issues facing our communities, institutions, nation and world. Visit www.aia.org.
Related Stories
| Jan 2, 2013
M&A activity at U.S. AEC firms up slightly
Total mergers and acquisitions in the AEC industry hit 171 in 2012, up slight from the 169 deals in 2011.
| Jan 2, 2013
Global data center market to ‘slow’ to 14.3% this year
Total global investment in data centers is expected to slow down somewhat this year but still increase at a respectable 14.3%, according to DCD Intelligence.
| Jan 2, 2013
Construction jobs made gains in 2012, even with a slow Q4, says Gilbane report
The construction sector in the nine states with 50% of construction employment was up 169,000 jobs from February to September 2012, following a lost of 137,000 jobs from September 2011 to January 2012.
| Dec 21, 2012
ABI gains for fourth straight month
Positive business conditions for all building sectors.
| Dec 17, 2012
CSM Group names recipient of the CSM Architect Fellowship Grant
With the money from the grant, Harlow has chosen to use it entirely for the Chapter of American Institute of Architecture Student’s Freedom by Design Program at Andrews University.
| Dec 9, 2012
AIA: Laboratory design, building for breakthrough science
To earn 1.0 AIA/CES learning units, study the article carefully and take the exam.
| Dec 9, 2012
The owner’s perspective: high-rise buildings
Douglas Durst on the practicalities of development: “You must think about a building from the inside out.”
| Dec 9, 2012
Greenzone pop quiz
Greenbuild attendees share their thoughts with BD+C on the SAGE modular classroom.
