With slower than expected activity in the nonresidential construction sector in the first half of the year, the projections for growth in spending have been scaled back.
Led by the hotel and retail project categories, the commercial sector looks largely unchanged, but a noteworthy drop in demand for institutional projects has caused participants in the American Institute of Architects’ (AIA) semi-annual Consensus Construction Forecast, a survey of the nation’s leading construction forecasters, to reduce projections for spending to a 2.3% increase in 2013, with next year’s projections raised to 7.6%.
Market Segment Consensus Growth Forecasts |
||
| 2013 | 2014 | |
| Overall nonresidential | 2.30% | 7.60% |
| Commercial / industrial | 8.50% | 11.50% |
| Hotels | 17.40% | 15.00% |
| Retail | 8.20% | 11.70% |
| Office buildings | 5.80% | 9.50% |
| Industrial facilities | 4.00% | 6.30% |
| Institutional | -1.80% | 5.60% |
| Religious | 1.50% | 6.00% |
| Healthcare facilities | 1.40% | 7.70% |
| Education | -2.50% | 4.80% |
| Amusement/recreation | -4.10% | 6.50% |
| Public safety | -4.80% | 1.00% |
“A disappointing recovery of the U.S. economy is limiting need for new nonresidential building activity,” said AIA Chief Economist, Kermit Baker, PhD, Hon. AIA. “Optimism for a stronger performance next year is based on the recent increase in domestic energy production, the boost to the general economy from a resurgent housing market, and improving employment figures that should help drive demand in the design and construction sectors.”
About the AIA Consensus Construction Forecast Panel
The AIA Consensus Construction Forecast Panel is conducted twice a year with the leading nonresidential construction forecasters in the United States including, McGraw Hill Construction, Wells Fargo Securities, IHS-Global Insight, Moody’s economy.com, Reed Business Information, Associated Builders & Contractors and FMI. The purpose of the Consensus Construction Forecast Panel is to project business conditions in the construction industry over the coming 12 to 18 months. The Consensus Construction Forecast Panel has been conducted for 14 years.
About The American Institute of Architects
Founded in 1857, members of the American Institute of Architects consistently work to create more valuable, healthy, secure, and sustainable buildings, neighborhoods, and communities. Through nearly 300 state and local chapters, the AIA advocates for public policies that promote economic vitality and public well being. Members adhere to a code of ethics and conduct to ensure the highest professional standards. The AIA provides members with tools and resources to assist them in their careers and business as well as engaging civic and government leaders, and the public to find solutions to pressing issues facing our communities, institutions, nation and world. Visit www.aia.org.
Related Stories
Giants 400 | Dec 20, 2023
Top 90 Student Housing Architecture Firms for 2023
Niles Bolton Associates, Solomon Cordwell Buenz, BKV Group, and Humphreys and Partners Architects top BD+C's ranking of the nation's largest student housing facility architecture and architecture/engineering (AE) firms for 2023, as reported in Building Design+Construction's 2023 Giants 400 Report.
Healthcare Facilities | Dec 19, 2023
A new hospital in Duluth, Minn., is now the region’s largest healthcare facility
In Duluth, Minn., the new St. Mary’s Medical Center, designed by EwingCole, is now the largest healthcare facility in the region. The hospital consolidates Essentia Health’s healthcare services under one roof. At about 1 million sf spanning two city blocks, St. Mary’s overlooks Lake Superior, providing views on almost every floor of the world’s largest freshwater lake.
Government Buildings | Dec 19, 2023
New Pennsylvania State Archives building holds documents dating back to 1680
Work was recently completed on a new Pennsylvania State Archives building in Harrisburg, Penn. The HGA-designed, 146,000-sf facility offers numerous amenities, including computers, scanners, printers, a kitchenette with seating, lockers, a meeting room, a classroom, an interactive video wall, gallery, and all-gender restrooms. The features are all intended to provide a welcoming and comfortable environment for visitors.
Urban Planning | Dec 18, 2023
The impacts of affordability, remote work, and personal safety on urban life
Data from Gensler's City Pulse Survey shows that although people are satisfied with their city's experience, it may not be enough.
MFPRO+ News | Dec 18, 2023
Berkeley, Calif., raises building height limits in downtown area
Facing a severe housing shortage, the City of Berkeley, Calif., increased the height limits on residential buildings to 12 stories in the area close to the University of California campus.
Green | Dec 18, 2023
Class B commercial properties gain more from LEED certification than Class A buildings
Class B office properties that are LEED certified command a greater relative benefit than LEED-certified Class A buildings, according to analysis from CBRE. The Class B LEED rent advantage over non-LEED is about three times larger than the premium earned by Class A LEED buildings.
Codes and Standards | Dec 18, 2023
ASHRAE releases guide on grid interactivity in the decarbonization process
A guide focusing on the critical role of grid interactivity in building decarbonization was recently published by ASHRAE. The Grid-Interactive Buildings for Decarbonization: Design and Operation Resource Guide provides information on maximizing carbon reduction through buildings’ interaction with the electric power grid.
Architects | Dec 18, 2023
Perkins&Will’s new PRECEDE tool provides access to public health data to inform design decisions
Perkins&Will recently launched a free digital resource that allows architects and designers to access key public health data to inform design decisions. The “Public Repository to Engage Community and Enhance Design Equity,” or PRECEDE, centralizes demographic, environmental, and health data from across the U.S. into a geospatial database.
Sports and Recreational Facilities | Dec 15, 2023
San Antonio Spurs’ new practice facility aims to help players win championships and maintain well-being
Designed by ZGF, the Victory Capital Performance Center uses biophilic design to promote better health and wellness on and off the court.
Affordable Housing | Dec 14, 2023
What's next for affordable housing in 2024?
As 2023 draws to a close, GBBN’s Mary Jo Minerich and Amanda Markovic, AIA sat down to talk about the future. What’s next in terms of trends, technology, and construction of affordable housing?
