With slower than expected activity in the nonresidential construction sector in the first half of the year, the projections for growth in spending have been scaled back.
Led by the hotel and retail project categories, the commercial sector looks largely unchanged, but a noteworthy drop in demand for institutional projects has caused participants in the American Institute of Architects’ (AIA) semi-annual Consensus Construction Forecast, a survey of the nation’s leading construction forecasters, to reduce projections for spending to a 2.3% increase in 2013, with next year’s projections raised to 7.6%.
Market Segment Consensus Growth Forecasts |
||
| 2013 | 2014 | |
| Overall nonresidential | 2.30% | 7.60% |
| Commercial / industrial | 8.50% | 11.50% |
| Hotels | 17.40% | 15.00% |
| Retail | 8.20% | 11.70% |
| Office buildings | 5.80% | 9.50% |
| Industrial facilities | 4.00% | 6.30% |
| Institutional | -1.80% | 5.60% |
| Religious | 1.50% | 6.00% |
| Healthcare facilities | 1.40% | 7.70% |
| Education | -2.50% | 4.80% |
| Amusement/recreation | -4.10% | 6.50% |
| Public safety | -4.80% | 1.00% |
“A disappointing recovery of the U.S. economy is limiting need for new nonresidential building activity,” said AIA Chief Economist, Kermit Baker, PhD, Hon. AIA. “Optimism for a stronger performance next year is based on the recent increase in domestic energy production, the boost to the general economy from a resurgent housing market, and improving employment figures that should help drive demand in the design and construction sectors.”
About the AIA Consensus Construction Forecast Panel
The AIA Consensus Construction Forecast Panel is conducted twice a year with the leading nonresidential construction forecasters in the United States including, McGraw Hill Construction, Wells Fargo Securities, IHS-Global Insight, Moody’s economy.com, Reed Business Information, Associated Builders & Contractors and FMI. The purpose of the Consensus Construction Forecast Panel is to project business conditions in the construction industry over the coming 12 to 18 months. The Consensus Construction Forecast Panel has been conducted for 14 years.
About The American Institute of Architects
Founded in 1857, members of the American Institute of Architects consistently work to create more valuable, healthy, secure, and sustainable buildings, neighborhoods, and communities. Through nearly 300 state and local chapters, the AIA advocates for public policies that promote economic vitality and public well being. Members adhere to a code of ethics and conduct to ensure the highest professional standards. The AIA provides members with tools and resources to assist them in their careers and business as well as engaging civic and government leaders, and the public to find solutions to pressing issues facing our communities, institutions, nation and world. Visit www.aia.org.
Related Stories
Architects | Aug 10, 2015
HDR expands its Canadian presence through merger with CEI Architecture
Public-private partnerships are expected to be one of the combined entity’s strengths.
Retail Centers | Aug 10, 2015
Walgreens’ flagship in Hawaii harkens back to the island’s fishing culture
A house where canoes were made served as the model for this drug superstore’s design.
Giants 400 | Aug 7, 2015
GOVERNMENT SECTOR GIANTS: Public sector spending even more cautiously on buildings
AEC firms that do government work say their public-sector clients have been going smaller to save money on construction projects, according to BD+C's 2015 Giants 300 report.
Giants 400 | Aug 7, 2015
K-12 SCHOOL SECTOR GIANTS: To succeed, school design must replicate real-world environments
Whether new or reconstructed, schools must meet new demands that emanate from the real world and rapidly adapt to different instructional and learning modes, according to BD+C's 2015 Giants 300 report.
Giants 400 | Aug 7, 2015
MULTIFAMILY AEC GIANTS: Slowdown prompts developers to ask: Will the luxury rentals boom hold?
For the last three years, rental apartments have occupied the hot corner in residential construction, as younger people gravitated toward renting to be closer to urban centers and jobs. But at around 360,000 annual starts, multifamily might be peaking, according to BD+C's 2015 Giants 300 report.
Giants 400 | Aug 7, 2015
UNIVERSITY SECTOR GIANTS: Collaboration, creativity, technology—hallmarks of today’s campus facilities
At a time when competition for the cream of the student/faculty crop is intensifying, colleges and universities must recognize that students and parents are coming to expect an education environment that foments collaboration, according to BD+C's 2015 Giants 300 report.
Giants 400 | Aug 7, 2015
RECONSTRUCTION AEC GIANTS: Restorations breathe new life into valuable older buildings
AEC Giants discuss opportunities and complications associated with renovation, restoration, and adaptive reuse construction work.
BIM and Information Technology | Aug 6, 2015
After refueling its capital tank, WeWork acquires BIM consultant Case
The merger is expected to help standardize how WeWork designs and builds out office space.
Giants 400 | Aug 6, 2015
BIM GIANTS: Robotic reality capture, gaming systems, virtual reality—AEC Giants continue tech frenzy
Given their size, AEC Giants possess the resources and scale to research and test the bevy of software and hardware solutions on the market. Some have created internal innovation labs and fabrication shops to tinker with emerging technologies and create custom software tools. Others have formed R&D teams to test tech tools on the job site.
Giants 400 | Aug 6, 2015
GIANTS 300 REPORT: Top 115 Healthcare Architecture Firms
HDR, Stantec, and Perkins+Will top Building Design+Construction's 2015 ranking of the largest healthcare architecture and architecture/engineering firms in the U.S.
