With slower than expected activity in the nonresidential construction sector in the first half of the year, the projections for growth in spending have been scaled back.
Led by the hotel and retail project categories, the commercial sector looks largely unchanged, but a noteworthy drop in demand for institutional projects has caused participants in the American Institute of Architects’ (AIA) semi-annual Consensus Construction Forecast, a survey of the nation’s leading construction forecasters, to reduce projections for spending to a 2.3% increase in 2013, with next year’s projections raised to 7.6%.
Market Segment Consensus Growth Forecasts |
||
2013 | 2014 | |
Overall nonresidential | 2.30% | 7.60% |
Commercial / industrial | 8.50% | 11.50% |
Hotels | 17.40% | 15.00% |
Retail | 8.20% | 11.70% |
Office buildings | 5.80% | 9.50% |
Industrial facilities | 4.00% | 6.30% |
Institutional | -1.80% | 5.60% |
Religious | 1.50% | 6.00% |
Healthcare facilities | 1.40% | 7.70% |
Education | -2.50% | 4.80% |
Amusement/recreation | -4.10% | 6.50% |
Public safety | -4.80% | 1.00% |
“A disappointing recovery of the U.S. economy is limiting need for new nonresidential building activity,” said AIA Chief Economist, Kermit Baker, PhD, Hon. AIA. “Optimism for a stronger performance next year is based on the recent increase in domestic energy production, the boost to the general economy from a resurgent housing market, and improving employment figures that should help drive demand in the design and construction sectors.”
About the AIA Consensus Construction Forecast Panel
The AIA Consensus Construction Forecast Panel is conducted twice a year with the leading nonresidential construction forecasters in the United States including, McGraw Hill Construction, Wells Fargo Securities, IHS-Global Insight, Moody’s economy.com, Reed Business Information, Associated Builders & Contractors and FMI. The purpose of the Consensus Construction Forecast Panel is to project business conditions in the construction industry over the coming 12 to 18 months. The Consensus Construction Forecast Panel has been conducted for 14 years.
About The American Institute of Architects
Founded in 1857, members of the American Institute of Architects consistently work to create more valuable, healthy, secure, and sustainable buildings, neighborhoods, and communities. Through nearly 300 state and local chapters, the AIA advocates for public policies that promote economic vitality and public well being. Members adhere to a code of ethics and conduct to ensure the highest professional standards. The AIA provides members with tools and resources to assist them in their careers and business as well as engaging civic and government leaders, and the public to find solutions to pressing issues facing our communities, institutions, nation and world. Visit www.aia.org.
Related Stories
Construction Costs | Apr 18, 2024
New download: BD+C's April 2024 Market Intelligence Report
Building Design+Construction's monthly Market Intelligence Report offers a snapshot of the health of the U.S. building construction industry, including the commercial, multifamily, institutional, and industrial building sectors. This report tracks the latest metrics related to construction spending, demand for design services, contractor backlogs, and material price trends.
MFPRO+ New Projects | Apr 16, 2024
Marvel-designed Gowanus Green will offer 955 affordable rental units in Brooklyn
The community consists of approximately 955 units of 100% affordable housing, 28,000 sf of neighborhood service retail and community space, a site for a new public school, and a new 1.5-acre public park.
Construction Costs | Apr 16, 2024
How the new prevailing wage calculation will impact construction labor costs
Looking ahead to 2024 and beyond, two pivotal changes in federal construction labor dynamics are likely to exacerbate increasing construction labor costs, according to Gordian's Samuel Giffin.
Healthcare Facilities | Apr 16, 2024
Mexico’s ‘premier private academic health center’ under design
The design and construction contract for what is envisioned to be “the premier private academic health center in Mexico and Latin America” was recently awarded to The Beck Group. The TecSalud Health Sciences Campus will be located at Tec De Monterrey’s flagship healthcare facility, Zambrano Hellion Hospital, in Monterrey, Mexico.
Market Data | Apr 16, 2024
The average U.S. contractor has 8.2 months worth of construction work in the pipeline, as of March 2024
Associated Builders and Contractors reported today that its Construction Backlog Indicator increased to 8.2 months in March from 8.1 months in February, according to an ABC member survey conducted March 20 to April 3. The reading is down 0.5 months from March 2023.
Laboratories | Apr 15, 2024
HGA unveils plans to transform an abandoned rock quarry into a new research and innovation campus
In the coastal town of Manchester-by-the-Sea, Mass., an abandoned rock quarry will be transformed into a new research and innovation campus designed by HGA. The campus will reuse and upcycle the granite left onsite. The project for Cell Signaling Technology (CST), a life sciences technology company, will turn an environmentally depleted site into a net-zero laboratory campus, with building electrification and onsite renewables.
Codes and Standards | Apr 12, 2024
ICC eliminates building electrification provisions from 2024 update
The International Code Council stripped out provisions from the 2024 update to the International Energy Conservation Code (IECC) that would have included beefed up circuitry for hooking up electric appliances and car chargers.
Urban Planning | Apr 12, 2024
Popular Denver e-bike voucher program aids carbon reduction goals
Denver’s e-bike voucher program that helps citizens pay for e-bikes, a component of the city’s carbon reduction plan, has proven extremely popular with residents. Earlier this year, Denver’s effort to get residents to swap some motor vehicle trips for bike trips ran out of vouchers in less than 10 minutes after the program opened to online applications.
Laboratories | Apr 12, 2024
Life science construction completions will peak this year, then drop off substantially
There will be a record amount of construction completions in the U.S. life science market in 2024, followed by a dramatic drop in 2025, according to CBRE. In 2024, 21.3 million sf of life science space will be completed in the 13 largest U.S. markets. That’s up from 13.9 million sf last year and 5.6 million sf in 2022.
Multifamily Housing | Apr 12, 2024
Habitat starts leasing Cassidy on Canal, a new luxury rental high-rise in Chicago
New 33-story Class A rental tower, designed by SCB, will offer 343 rental units.