Healthy fundamentals in the commercial property market combined with the international economy returning to more traditional growth levels are factoring into a projected increase in growth for the design and construction industry.
Led by the hotel and retail project categories, the commercial sector looks to see the biggest gains in construction spending, with demand for institutional projects increasing at a more moderate level.
The American Institute of Architects’ (AIA) semi-annual Consensus Construction Forecast, a survey of the nation’s leading construction forecasters, is projecting that spending will see a 5.8% increase in 2014, with next year’s projections raised to 8%.
“Since the overall economy is stabilizing, there should be a significant improvement in the outlook for the construction industry that has been recovering at a slow and steady pace the last two years,” said AIA Chief Economist, Kermit Baker, PhD, Hon. AIA. “At a more granular level, the surging housing market, growing commercial property values, and declining office and retail vacancies are all contributing to what is expected to amount to a much greater spending on nonresidential building projects.”
Baker continued, “The rosy outlook also contains several concerns for the entire construction industry. Rising construction costs, a shortage of skilled labor, and bank credit standards that have not eased up enough to keep pace with the strong demand for construction financing are all serious challenges to sustained growth in the coming years.”
Here is AIA's 2014 and 2015 forecast by sector:
About the AIA Consensus Construction Forecast Panel
The AIA Consensus Construction Forecast Panel is conducted twice a year with the leading nonresidential construction forecasters in the United States including, McGraw Hill Construction, Wells Fargo Securities, IHS-Global Insight, Moody’s economy.com, Reed Business Information, Associated Builders & Contractors and FMI. The purpose of the Consensus Construction Forecast Panel is to project business conditions in the construction industry over the coming 12 to 18 months. The Consensus Construction Forecast Panel has been conducted for 15 years.
About The American Institute of Architects
Founded in 1857, members of the American Institute of Architects consistently work to create more valuable, healthy, secure, and sustainable buildings, neighborhoods, and communities. Through nearly 300 state and local chapters, the AIA advocates for public policies that promote economic vitality and public well being. Members adhere to a code of ethics and conduct to ensure the highest professional standards. The AIA provides members with tools and resources to assist them in their careers and business as well as engaging civic and government leaders, and the public to find solutions to pressing issues facing our communities, institutions, nation and world. Visit www.aia.org.
Related Stories
| May 18, 2011
Carnegie Hall vaults into the 21st century with a $200 million renovation
Historic Carnegie Hall in New York City is in the midst of a major $200 million renovation that will bring the building up to contemporary standards, increase educational and backstage space, and target LEED Silver.
| May 17, 2011
Redesigning, redefining the grocery shopping experience
The traditional 40,000- to 60,000-sf grocery store is disappearing and much of the change is happening in the city. Urban infill sites and mixed-use projects offer grocers a rare opportunity to repackage themselves into smaller, more efficient, and more convenient retail outlets. And the AEC community will have a hand in developing how these facilities will look and operate.
| May 17, 2011
Architecture billings index fell in April, hurt by tight financing for projects
The architecture billings index, a leading indicator of U.S. construction activity, fell in April, hurt by tight financing for projects. The architecture billings index fell 2.9 points last month to 47.6, a level that indicates declining demand for architecture services, according to the American Institute of Architects.
| May 17, 2011
Sustainability tops the syllabus at net-zero energy school in Texas
Texas-based firm Corgan designed the 152,200-sf Lady Bird Johnson Middle School in Irving, Texas, with the goal of creating the largest net-zero educational facility in the nation, and the first in the state. The facility is expected to use 50% less energy than a standard school.
| May 17, 2011
Gilbane partners with Steel Orca on ultra-green data center
Gilbane, along with Crabtree, Rohrbaugh & Associates, has been selected to partner with Steel Orca to design and build a 300,000-sf data center in Bucks County, Pa., that will be powered entirely through renewable energy sources--gas, solar, fuel cells, wind and geo-thermal. Completion is scheduled for 2013.
| May 17, 2011
Should Washington, D.C., allow taller buildings?
Suggestions are being made that Washington revise its restrictions on building heights. Architect Roger Lewis, who raised the topic in the Washington Post a few weeks ago, argues for a modest relaxation of the height limits, and thinks that concerns about ruining the city’s aesthetics are unfounded.
| May 17, 2011
The New Orleans master plan
At an afternoon panel during last week's AIA National Conference in New Orleans, Goody Clancy Principal David Dixon and Manning Principal W. Raymond Manning shared their experiences creating the New Orleans Master Plan, a document that sets a new course for the city, from land use and transportation planning to environmental protection.
| May 17, 2011
Do these buildings look like buffalo to you?
It’s hard to contemplate winter now that we’re mid-spring, but when the seasons change, ice skaters in Winnipeg will be able to keep warm in plywood shelters designed by Patkau Architects. The designers created temporary shelters inspired by animal behavior—specifically, buffalo bracing against the wind. Check them out.
| May 16, 2011
USGBC and AIA unveil report for greening K-12 schools
The U.S. Green Building Council and the American Institute of Architects unveiled "Local Leaders in Sustainability: A Special Report from Sundance," which outlines a five-point national action plan that mayors and local leaders can use as a framework to develop and implement green schools initiatives.