The construction materials price index for nonresidential buildings fell 0.6% in March extending the decline since the September peak to 12.8%. Materials prices are back to the January 2008 level before the 14% jump in prices from March through September. The materials price index is expected to decline slowly for a few more months and then rise modestly by the end of the year. The index will rise more quickly next year, perhaps up 4-5% from the 2009 average.
March's price drop was led by diesel fuel (-8.9%), structural steel (-6.4%), and lumber (-3.5%). Weekly price reports assure that diesel prices will be higher in April. Another decline in steel and steel product prices is assured by the 8.3% March decline in steel scrap prices in a still weakening world economy. Softwood lumber prices are 11% below a year ago and 35% below three years ago. Yet they are likely to drop marginally lower in the next few months before a pickup in residential construction begins as early as this summer.
Components used in housing, such as lumber, gypsum, and low-rise roofing, have the most risk of price increase over the next year as the housing market begins to recover later this year.
—Jim Haughey, BD+C Economist and Chief Economist for Reed Construction Data