The U.S. housing recovery should regain its footing, but also faces a number of challenges, concludes The State of the Nation’s Housing report released by the Joint Center for Housing Studies of Harvard University. Tight credit, still elevated unemployment, and mounting student loan debt among young Americans are moderating growth and keeping millennials and other first-time homebuyers out of the market.
“The housing recovery is following the path of the broader economy,” says Chris Herbert, research director at the Joint Center for Housing Studies. “As long as the economy remains on the path of slow, but steady improvement, housing should follow suit.”
Although the housing industry saw notable increases in construction, home prices, and sales in 2013, household growth has yet to fully recover from the effects of the recession. Young Americans, saddled with higher-than-ever student loan debt and falling incomes, continue to live with their parents. Indeed, some 2.1 million more adults in their 20s lived with their parents last year, and student loan balances increased by $114 billion.
Still, given the sheer volume of young adults coming of age, the number of households in their 30s should increase by 2.7 million over the coming decade, which should boost demand for new housing. “Ultimately, the large millennial generation will make their presence felt in the owner-occupied market,” says Daniel McCue, research manager of the Joint Center, “just as they already have in the rental market, where demand is strong, rents are rising, construction is robust, and property values increased by double digits for the fourth consecutive year in 2013.”
One key to realizing the millennials’ potential in the housing market is for the economy to grow to the point where their incomes start to rise. Another important factor is how potential GSE reform will affect the cost and availability of mortgage credit for the next generation of homebuyers, which will be the most diverse in the nation’s history. By 2025, minorities will make up 36 percent of all US households and 46 percent of those aged 25–34, thus accounting for nearly half of the typical first-time homebuyer market.
The report, as well as an interactive map released by the Joint Center, also highlights the ongoing affordability challenge facing the country, as cost burdens remain near record levels and over 35 percent of Americans spend more than 30 percent of their income for housing. The situation is particularly grim for renters, where 50 percent are cost burdened and 28 percent are severely cost burdened (meaning they spend over half of their income for housing).
“When available, federal rental subsidies make a significant difference in the quality of life for those struggling the most,” says Herbert. “Between 2007 and 2011, the number of Americans eligible for assistance rose by 3.3 million, while the number of assisted housing units was essentially unchanged. Sequestration forced further cuts in housing assistance, which have yet to be reversed.”
Related Stories
Legislation | Nov 23, 2022
7 ways the Inflation Reduction Act will impact the building sector
HOK’s Anica Landreneau and Stephanie Miller and Smart Surfaces Coalition’s Greg Kats reveal multiple ways the IRA will benefit the built environment.
Multifamily Housing | Nov 22, 2022
10 compelling multifamily developments debut in 2022
A smart home tech-focused apartment complex in North Phoenix, Ariz., and a factory conversion to lofts in St. Louis highlight the notable multifamily developments to debut recently.
Digital Twin | Nov 21, 2022
An inside look at the airport industry's plan to develop a digital twin guidebook
Zoë Fisher, AIA explores how design strategies are changing the way we deliver and design projects in the post-pandemic world.
Healthcare Facilities | Nov 17, 2022
Repetitive, hotel-like design gives wings to rehab hospital chain’s rapid growth
The prototype design for Everest Rehabilitation Hospitals had to be universal enough so it could be replicated to accommodate Everest’s expansion strategy.
Industrial Facilities | Nov 16, 2022
Industrial building sector construction, while healthy, might also be flattening
For all the hoopla about the ecommerce boom and “last mile” order fulfillment driving demand for more warehouse and manufacturing space, construction of industrial buildings actually declined over the past five years, albeit marginally by 2.1% to $27.3 billion in 2022, according to estimates by IBIS World. Still, construction in this sector remains buzzy.
Wood | Nov 16, 2022
5 steps to using mass timber in multifamily housing
A design-assist approach can provide the most effective delivery method for multifamily housing projects using mass timber as the primary building element.
Giants 400 | Nov 14, 2022
Top 55 Airport Terminal Architecture + AE Firms for 2022
Gensler, PGAL, Corgan, and HOK top the ranking of the nation's largest airport terminal architecture and architecture/engineering (AE) firms for 2022, as reported in Building Design+Construction's 2022 Giants 400 Report.
Giants 400 | Nov 14, 2022
4 emerging trends from BD+C's 2022 Giants 400 Report
Regenerative design, cognitive health, and jobsite robotics highlight the top trends from the 519 design and construction firms that participated in BD+C's 2022 Giants 400 Report.
Green | Nov 13, 2022
NREL report: Using photovoltaic modules with longer lifetimes is a better option than recycling
A new report from the U.S. National Renewable Energy Laboratory (NREL) says PV module lifetime extensions should be prioritized over closed-loop recycling to reduce demand for new materials.
Green | Nov 13, 2022
Global building emissions reached record levels in 2021
Carbon-dioxide emissions from building construction and operations hit an all-time high in 2021, according to the most recent data compiled by the Global Alliance for Buildings and Construction.