The U.S. housing recovery should regain its footing, but also faces a number of challenges, concludes The State of the Nation’s Housing report released by the Joint Center for Housing Studies of Harvard University. Tight credit, still elevated unemployment, and mounting student loan debt among young Americans are moderating growth and keeping millennials and other first-time homebuyers out of the market.
“The housing recovery is following the path of the broader economy,” says Chris Herbert, research director at the Joint Center for Housing Studies. “As long as the economy remains on the path of slow, but steady improvement, housing should follow suit.”
Although the housing industry saw notable increases in construction, home prices, and sales in 2013, household growth has yet to fully recover from the effects of the recession. Young Americans, saddled with higher-than-ever student loan debt and falling incomes, continue to live with their parents. Indeed, some 2.1 million more adults in their 20s lived with their parents last year, and student loan balances increased by $114 billion.
Still, given the sheer volume of young adults coming of age, the number of households in their 30s should increase by 2.7 million over the coming decade, which should boost demand for new housing. “Ultimately, the large millennial generation will make their presence felt in the owner-occupied market,” says Daniel McCue, research manager of the Joint Center, “just as they already have in the rental market, where demand is strong, rents are rising, construction is robust, and property values increased by double digits for the fourth consecutive year in 2013.”
One key to realizing the millennials’ potential in the housing market is for the economy to grow to the point where their incomes start to rise. Another important factor is how potential GSE reform will affect the cost and availability of mortgage credit for the next generation of homebuyers, which will be the most diverse in the nation’s history. By 2025, minorities will make up 36 percent of all US households and 46 percent of those aged 25–34, thus accounting for nearly half of the typical first-time homebuyer market.
The report, as well as an interactive map released by the Joint Center, also highlights the ongoing affordability challenge facing the country, as cost burdens remain near record levels and over 35 percent of Americans spend more than 30 percent of their income for housing. The situation is particularly grim for renters, where 50 percent are cost burdened and 28 percent are severely cost burdened (meaning they spend over half of their income for housing).
“When available, federal rental subsidies make a significant difference in the quality of life for those struggling the most,” says Herbert. “Between 2007 and 2011, the number of Americans eligible for assistance rose by 3.3 million, while the number of assisted housing units was essentially unchanged. Sequestration forced further cuts in housing assistance, which have yet to be reversed.”
Related Stories
| May 18, 2011
Eco-friendly San Antonio school combines history and sustainability
The 113,000-sf Rolling Meadows Elementary School in San Antonio is the Judson Independent School District’s first sustainable facility, with green features such as vented roofs for rainwater collection and regionally sourced materials.
| May 18, 2011
New Reform Jewish Independent school opens outside Boston
The Rashi School, one of only 17 Reform Jewish independent schools in North American and Israel, opened a new $30 million facility on a 166-acre campus shared with the Hebrew SeniorLife community on the Charles River in Dedham, Mass.
| May 18, 2011
Design diversity celebrated at Orange County club
The Orange County, Calif., firm NKDDI designed the 22,000-sf Luna Lounge & Nightclub in Pomona, Calif., to be a high-end multipurpose event space that can transition from restaurant to lounge to nightclub to music venue.
| May 18, 2011
Lab personnel find comfort in former Winchester gun factory
The former Winchester Repeating Arms Factory in New Haven, Conn., is the new home of PepsiCo’s Biology Innovation Research Laboratory.
| May 18, 2011
Addition provides new school for pre-K and special-needs kids outside Chicago
Perkins+Will, Chicago, designed the Early Learning Center, a $9 million, 37,000-sf addition to Barrington Middle School in Barrington, Ill., to create an easily accessible and safe learning environment for pre-kindergarten and special-needs students.
| May 18, 2011
Raphael Viñoly’s serpentine-shaped building snakes up San Francisco hillside
The hillside location for the Ray and Dagmar Dolby Regeneration Medicine building at the University of California, San Francisco, presented a challenge to the Building Team of Raphael Viñoly, SmithGroup, DPR Construction, and Forell/Elsesser Engineers. The 660-foot-long serpentine-shaped building sits on a structural framework 40 to 70 feet off the ground to accommodate the hillside’s steep 60-degree slope.
| May 18, 2011
New center provides home to medical specialties
Construction has begun on the 150,000-sf Medical Arts Pavilion at the University Medical Center in Princeton, N.J.
| May 18, 2011
Improvements add to Detroit convention center’s appeal
Interior and exterior renovations and updates will make the Detroit Cobo Center more appealing to conventioneers. A new 40,000-sf ballroom will take advantage of the center’s riverfront location, with views of the river and downtown.
| May 18, 2011
One of Delaware’s largest high schools seeks LEED for Schools designation
The $82 million, 280,000-sf Dover (Del.) High School will have capacity for 1,800 students and feature a 900-seat theater, a 2,500-seat gymnasium, and a 5,000-seat football stadium.
