The U.S. housing recovery should regain its footing, but also faces a number of challenges, concludes The State of the Nation’s Housing report released by the Joint Center for Housing Studies of Harvard University. Tight credit, still elevated unemployment, and mounting student loan debt among young Americans are moderating growth and keeping millennials and other first-time homebuyers out of the market.
“The housing recovery is following the path of the broader economy,” says Chris Herbert, research director at the Joint Center for Housing Studies. “As long as the economy remains on the path of slow, but steady improvement, housing should follow suit.”
Although the housing industry saw notable increases in construction, home prices, and sales in 2013, household growth has yet to fully recover from the effects of the recession. Young Americans, saddled with higher-than-ever student loan debt and falling incomes, continue to live with their parents. Indeed, some 2.1 million more adults in their 20s lived with their parents last year, and student loan balances increased by $114 billion.
Still, given the sheer volume of young adults coming of age, the number of households in their 30s should increase by 2.7 million over the coming decade, which should boost demand for new housing. “Ultimately, the large millennial generation will make their presence felt in the owner-occupied market,” says Daniel McCue, research manager of the Joint Center, “just as they already have in the rental market, where demand is strong, rents are rising, construction is robust, and property values increased by double digits for the fourth consecutive year in 2013.”
One key to realizing the millennials’ potential in the housing market is for the economy to grow to the point where their incomes start to rise. Another important factor is how potential GSE reform will affect the cost and availability of mortgage credit for the next generation of homebuyers, which will be the most diverse in the nation’s history. By 2025, minorities will make up 36 percent of all US households and 46 percent of those aged 25–34, thus accounting for nearly half of the typical first-time homebuyer market.
The report, as well as an interactive map released by the Joint Center, also highlights the ongoing affordability challenge facing the country, as cost burdens remain near record levels and over 35 percent of Americans spend more than 30 percent of their income for housing. The situation is particularly grim for renters, where 50 percent are cost burdened and 28 percent are severely cost burdened (meaning they spend over half of their income for housing).
“When available, federal rental subsidies make a significant difference in the quality of life for those struggling the most,” says Herbert. “Between 2007 and 2011, the number of Americans eligible for assistance rose by 3.3 million, while the number of assisted housing units was essentially unchanged. Sequestration forced further cuts in housing assistance, which have yet to be reversed.”
Related Stories
Office Buildings | Jun 3, 2024
Insights for working well in a hybrid world
GBBN Principal and Interior Designer Beth Latto, NCIDQ, LEED AP, ID+C, WELL AP, share a few takeaways, insights, and lessons learned from a recent Post Occupancy Evaluation of the firm's Cincinnati, Ohio, office.
Multifamily Housing | Jun 3, 2024
Grassroots groups becoming a force in housing advocacy
A growing movement of grassroots organizing to support new housing construction is having an impact in city halls across the country. Fed up with high housing costs and the commonly hostile reception to new housing proposals, advocacy groups have sprung up in many communities to attend public meetings to speak in support of developments.
MFPRO+ News | Jun 3, 2024
New York’s office to residential conversion program draws interest from 64 owners
New York City’s Office Conversion Accelerator Program has been contacted by the owners of 64 commercial buildings interested in converting their properties to residential use.
MFPRO+ News | Jun 3, 2024
Seattle mayor wants to scale back energy code to spur more housing construction
Seattle’s mayor recently proposed that the city scale back a scheduled revamping of its building energy code to help boost housing production. The proposal would halt an update to the city’s multifamily and commercial building energy code that is scheduled to take effect later this year.
Mass Timber | May 31, 2024
Mass timber a big part of Western Washington University’s net-zero ambitions
Western Washington University, in Bellingham, Wash., 90 miles from Seattle, is in the process of expanding its ABET-accredited programs for electrical engineering, computer engineering and science, and energy science. As part of that process, the university is building Kaiser Borsari Hall, the 54,000-sf new home for those academic disciplines that will include teaching labs, research labs, classrooms, collaborative spaces, and administrative offices.
Construction Costs | May 31, 2024
Despite challenges, 2024 construction material prices continue to stabilize
Gordian’s Q2 2024 Quarterly Construction Cost Insights Report indicates that supply chain issues notwithstanding, many commodities are exhibiting price normalization.
University Buildings | May 30, 2024
Washington University School of Medicine opens one of the world’s largest neuroscience research buildings
In St. Louis’ Cortex Innovation District, Washington University School of Medicine recently opened its new Jeffrey T. Fort Neuroscience Research Building. Designed by CannonDesign and Perkins&Will, the 11-story, 609,000-sf facility is one of the largest neuroscience buildings in the world.
Architects | May 30, 2024
AE firm Goodwyn Mills Cawood merges with Southland Engineering
Architecture and engineering firm Goodwyn Mills Cawood (GMC) is further expanding its services through a strategic merger with engineering firm Southland Engineering in Cartersville, Ga.
K-12 Schools | May 30, 2024
Inclusive design strategies to transform learning spaces
Students with disabilities and those experiencing mental health and behavioral conditions represent a group of the most vulnerable students at risk for failing to connect educationally and socially. Educators and school districts are struggling to accommodate all of these nuanced and, at times, overlapping conditions.
MFPRO+ New Projects | May 29, 2024
Two San Francisco multifamily high rises install onsite water recycling systems
Two high-rise apartment buildings in San Francisco have installed onsite water recycling systems that will reuse a total of 3.9 million gallons of wastewater annually. The recycled water will be used for toilet flushing, cooling towers, and landscape irrigation to significantly reduce water usage in both buildings.