The U.S. housing recovery should regain its footing, but also faces a number of challenges, concludes The State of the Nation’s Housing report released by the Joint Center for Housing Studies of Harvard University. Tight credit, still elevated unemployment, and mounting student loan debt among young Americans are moderating growth and keeping millennials and other first-time homebuyers out of the market.
“The housing recovery is following the path of the broader economy,” says Chris Herbert, research director at the Joint Center for Housing Studies. “As long as the economy remains on the path of slow, but steady improvement, housing should follow suit.”
Although the housing industry saw notable increases in construction, home prices, and sales in 2013, household growth has yet to fully recover from the effects of the recession. Young Americans, saddled with higher-than-ever student loan debt and falling incomes, continue to live with their parents. Indeed, some 2.1 million more adults in their 20s lived with their parents last year, and student loan balances increased by $114 billion.
Still, given the sheer volume of young adults coming of age, the number of households in their 30s should increase by 2.7 million over the coming decade, which should boost demand for new housing. “Ultimately, the large millennial generation will make their presence felt in the owner-occupied market,” says Daniel McCue, research manager of the Joint Center, “just as they already have in the rental market, where demand is strong, rents are rising, construction is robust, and property values increased by double digits for the fourth consecutive year in 2013.”
One key to realizing the millennials’ potential in the housing market is for the economy to grow to the point where their incomes start to rise. Another important factor is how potential GSE reform will affect the cost and availability of mortgage credit for the next generation of homebuyers, which will be the most diverse in the nation’s history. By 2025, minorities will make up 36 percent of all US households and 46 percent of those aged 25–34, thus accounting for nearly half of the typical first-time homebuyer market.
The report, as well as an interactive map released by the Joint Center, also highlights the ongoing affordability challenge facing the country, as cost burdens remain near record levels and over 35 percent of Americans spend more than 30 percent of their income for housing. The situation is particularly grim for renters, where 50 percent are cost burdened and 28 percent are severely cost burdened (meaning they spend over half of their income for housing).
“When available, federal rental subsidies make a significant difference in the quality of life for those struggling the most,” says Herbert. “Between 2007 and 2011, the number of Americans eligible for assistance rose by 3.3 million, while the number of assisted housing units was essentially unchanged. Sequestration forced further cuts in housing assistance, which have yet to be reversed.”
Related Stories
| Feb 19, 2014
Why you should start with a builder, part two
When it’s time to build or expand, the first step is finding a builder that fits your needs. Once you have found a builder, checked their references, visited with their previous clients and are ready to move forward, the next step is answering an initial set of questions that will direct your project.
| Feb 19, 2014
Slight rebound for Architecture Billings Index
After consecutive months of contracting demand for design services, AIA's Architecture Billings Index inched up nearly two points to 50.4 in January, indicating favorable business conditions.
| Feb 19, 2014
Sefaira Adds Daylighting Analysis to Performance Based Design Platform
Sefaira, the leader in software for high performance building design, today announced that its performance based design platform now includes daylighting analysis. With the addition of daylighting, Sefaira combines two critical design metrics in the same tool.
| Feb 19, 2014
Harvard's 'termite robots' can build any thing, any way [video]
The robots build by observing thier environment and then obeying a set of traffic rules programmed by researchers.
| Feb 18, 2014
Illinois leads Top 10 states for LEED in annual USGBC ranking
The U.S. Green Building Council has released its ranking of the Top 10 States for LEED, the world’s most widely used and recognized green building rating system.
| Feb 18, 2014
Study: 90% of healthcare providers say Affordable Care Act is 'step forward,' but major revisions needed
Providers are excited about opportunities to address long-term health issues in the U.S., but worries about the transition persist, according to a new study by Mortenson Construction.
| Feb 17, 2014
SmithGroupJJR President and CEO Carl Roehling appointed to serve on the AIA/AGC Joint Committee
Carl Roehling, FAIA, LEED AP BD+C, president & CEO of SmithGroupJJR, has been appointed to serve on the Joint Committee of The American Institute of Architects (AIA) and The Associated General Contractors of America (AGC).
| Feb 17, 2014
Developer plans to 'crowdfund' extended stay hotel in Manhattan
Want to own a piece of Manhattan hotel real estate? Developer Rodrigo Nino is inviting individual investors to put up $100,000 each for his latest project, 17 John.
| Feb 17, 2014
Call for Entries: 17th annual Building Team Awards - Deadline Extended!
BD+C's Building Team Awards is the industry's only recognition program to honor projects that achieve excellence in both design/construction and collaboration of the AEC/O team. The deadline has been extended to March 14, 2014.
| Feb 17, 2014
GBI to Offer AIA Approved Course Free for 60 Days to Train New Green Globes Professionals
The Green Building Initiative™ (GBI) announced today that between Feb. 13 and April 15 it will provide free access to its online certification course for Green Globes Professionals™ (GGPs). GGPs help guide building projects in achieving Green Globes® ratings, awarded for environmentally-focused design and construction.